And, Polaroid, Kodak, Blackberry, Digital Equipment Corp (DEC), Wang, Memorex and countless others who could not deal with disruptive technologies
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And, Polaroid, Kodak, Blackberry, Digital Equipment Corp (DEC), Wang, Memorex and countless others who could not deal with disruptive technologies
I was thinking the same thing. I think it also shows just how shockingly and irrefutably good Tesla, and its car, is. They can't say anything negative because then they look like a fool. But why they say anything at all is somewhat of a mystery to me.
Up until I read Mueller's quote in that article I had written Porsche off, but now I think there's some hope for the company if the guy in charge can publicly acknowledge that Tesla is ahead of them and they have to catch up.
The first step to facing up to reality is admitting that you've been wrong...but Porsche has a long way to go.
The first step to facing up to reality is admitting that you've been wrong...but Porsche has a long way to go.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
People who start very early also don't have a great track record - look at netscape, palm, lotus etc etc.
We don't know whether Tesla is the Blackberry or the iPhone.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
It requires a little double speak but it's a reasonable goal for a $100,000+ car that hasn't come out yet.
Tesla likes to cap supercharging below 2C (more specifically 1.85C or below)
I haven't heard of the limits with a 135KW supercharger or a 150KW supercharger but I'm sure it's coming if it hasn't already.
Now imagine the newer more expensive car has a higher capacity battery pack of say 100 kHh and you use 1.8C as the max charge rate you are talking about 180KW supercharger possible without stressing the battery too far.
You can probably do that with existing technology. The double speak isn't in the max charge rate. It'd be in the driving 300 miles and still getting a charge in a normal rest stop. I'm assuming we are talking more like
Porsche is targeting a range of more 500 kilometers (310 miles) before needing to recharge (achieving half charge in 20 minutes), which shouldn’t take longer than a normal stop on a motorway.
The only way I see a normal rest stop giving you 300+ miles on a short supercharging session is if the battery pack is capable of doing twice that range from full charge.
.The story is still unfolding, it could go in any direction. It is up to Tesla's team to steer their ship in the desired direction. Tesla seems to have won the technology battle. Porsche is admitting that. War has not been won yet.
The hurdles ahead are common business hurdles of automotive business sales and growth, different to the initial technology start-up hurdles. The game changes by the day. Team that was good at innovation and to lift the start-up off the ground may be behind the competition in their ability to scale up globally.
Tesla's risk in becoming Nokia is magnified if Tesla fails to upskill to handle these different, but more common, business hurdles. Competition seems to be more effective than Tesla in global expansion.
Other automakers executives are not saying anything negative about Tesla because there is nothing negative to be said. Some of them are quite busy expanding their business to North America.
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One of the most important comments in the article is.... "which would help the brand comply with tightening environmental regulations".
It's not a matter of keeping up with Tesla but more about meeting the 95gm/km deadline of 2020. Watch them all, not just Porsche, jump on the electric bandwagon from now.
It's not a matter of keeping up with Tesla but more about meeting the 95gm/km deadline of 2020. Watch them all, not just Porsche, jump on the electric bandwagon from now.
Krugerrand
Meow
belltown99
Member
I've converted over from Porsche to Tesla and was pretty serious about my 991 (tracking it, joining PCA, considering the GT3). I sold my pcar earlier this year and just out down a deposit on a Model S. Ultimately to get similar acceleration performance on a car with fewer parts, more technology (e.g. autopilot) and much more practical for daily use for the same price made a lot of sense to me. Not to mention, I don't ever have to worry about gas and expensive services. :biggrin:
Will I ever get another Porsche? That depends, but the Model S is surely going to give me a lot of reason to pause.
Competition is not standing still, waiting on anyone to catch up. This may be critical capability for further growth. Reinventing the wheel and learning from the scratch may not be the most efficient way to go about it. Tesla's team is most likely already working on better ways.
Yes, this is a truism in the auto industry. The bar is continuously rising, and all manufacturers must continuously improve to keep from being left behind. Tesla certainly is smart enough to do that, based on what they have done so far.
... and they are going to have to continue to create stunning innovations. Consider the risks that they will have to deal with:
- A lot of minds will have to change for BEVs to become truly mainstream. Remember the attempts to introduce the diesel into the US market? Even though diesels are now quiet and create no fumes, many US buyers remember only the bad old days and won't touch them, in spite of their higher efficiency and better torque.
- There will be lower-priced competitors. Sometimes the public wants something that's cheaper and "good enough" rather than the best. Remember the Beta versus VHS debate?
- There is a major trade-off between having a high-priced niche product, and a cheaper high-volume product. Tesla will find that it is a whole different ballgame to build > 100,000 vehicles per year as opposed to 25,000. It can be done, but a lot of things (all the way into their conveyor line) will have to change. And that assumes that the market will absorb > 100,000 BEVs at a price point that doesn't lose money on every car (see my first point, above).
- Tesla is investing major capital into the gigafactory, and they will need to help to invent the need for all that battery manufacturing capacity. All that capital investment competes with the major investments that need to be made into increasing car building capacity and quality control.
Having said all that, Tesla is well on the way to becoming the "Apple" of car brands, a sort of boutique product that people are ready and eager to buy at a higher price (I know that I sure am!). If they have strategies to manage all these risks (I expect that they do) they can be very successful long term.
Ed Hart
Member
A number of friends have made the move to Tesla from a lifetime of Porsches, BMWs, Mercedes and Audis. The current noise we here from the high end car manufacturers is simple: each believes that the sale of a Tesla is a sale they lost.
Or think of Apple? Apple came out with a smart phone at a time when several manufacturers dropped cells phones due to lack of making any profit. They were late in the game and now they almost own the cell phone market. Blackberry, kind of a pioneer in smart phones, is almost eliminated.
I wouldn't write off any of the other manufacturers just because they are behind at this point in time. Tesla opened the market and started the change, but they are a dwarf compared to the production and sales numbers of the big players. They were hesitant because the demand wasn't there. Now there is and they will not let Tesla just take it without doing anything.
I think that's true, but there are also other factors to consider in this instance. The first is that the large car manufactures already have an established business in producing ICE vehicles, and unless there is severe pressure on them any foray they might make into the electric space will be tepid. This is basically what we're seeing now. Manufactures getting their toes wet in the electric space, but due to their structural limitations refusing to take the plunge necessary to make truly great products.
I think this divide between Tesla and other manufactures will only become more pronounced with the Gigafactory and the release of the model 3. The gigafactory is a huge and risky investment, one that a company that already has an established business producing ICE cars is unlikely to take in the near term. So when they go to make cars like the bolt and other inexpensive long range ev's they simply won't have the supply chain necessary for production in the numbers needed to justify their projects.
This makes me think that Tesla is like an Apple in this situation. Some manufactures will be like Samsung and Motorola and take the risks necessary to reassess their products and compete, but that will be in the long term not the short term. By that time I Tesla will have carved out a space for itself, and will probably be very healthy to say the least.
Of course this is all speculation though.
Mayhemm
Model S P85+ "Lola"
This is what boggles my mind a bit. OEMs are giant corporations and corporations' primary motivation is profit, so why are they sinking so much money, time, and resources into devoloping non-competitive products (basically the bare minimum to not be laughed out of the room) that will only sell in small numbers and lose money on each unit? Why wouldn't they try to make a product far ahead of the competition and own the segment for a few years (a la Toyota with hybrids)? Especially those companies who always brag about how innovative and forward-thinking they are. They need a disclaimer in their ads which states "but only if we don't really need to do any work". Of course, there is a scale of effort between brands...
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Compliance..........
If Audi built the MS, they would kill their A7 and A8 sales. This assumes they could produce a MS type product at the volumes they sell their A7 and A8s which, of course, they can not. There are simply not enough batteries.
Chicken ---- Egg Although this time, there is no question that battery supply must come before large numbers of vehicles.
Oh, and for the poster above questioning what to do with all those batteries, I believe Tesla is going after the distributed generating business to displace existing power utilities. If you thought the automotive market was big........................
If Audi built the MS, they would kill their A7 and A8 sales. This assumes they could produce a MS type product at the volumes they sell their A7 and A8s which, of course, they can not. There are simply not enough batteries.
Chicken ---- Egg Although this time, there is no question that battery supply must come before large numbers of vehicles.
Oh, and for the poster above questioning what to do with all those batteries, I believe Tesla is going after the distributed generating business to displace existing power utilities. If you thought the automotive market was big........................
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