Post Elon Update Poll on FSD

[hatch]

Not the same.. our modern day horses (non-autonomous cars) allow us the freedom to move about as we choose, totally under our control. Universal autonomy which we cannot escape does not allow that freedom (takes it away).

From the beginning of Andrej Karpathy's keynote address for the workshop on autonomous driving:

"We're in bad shape when it comes to transportation in society."
"We have these metallic objects traveling incredibly quickly with high kinetic energy, and we are putting meat in the control loop. And this is quite undesirable."

Listen to the first several minutes. This isn't just Elon with some half-cocked tweet or craziness on the earnings call. This is the company's vision - priming society to accept the notion that humans should not be driving. Just try to keep an eye out for what's happening.

 

[2101Guy]

From the beginning of Andrej Karpathy's keynote address for the workshop on autonomous driving:

"We're in bad shape when it comes to transportation in society."
"We have these metallic objects traveling incredibly quickly with high kinetic energy, and we are putting meat in the control loop. And this is quite undesirable."

Listen to the first several minutes. This isn't just Elon with some half-cocked tweet or craziness on the earnings call. This is the company's vision - priming society to accept the notion that humans should not be driving. Just try to keep an eye out for what's happening.

I get it/and can accept that notion. Heck, over the past several years the trend has been for younger generation to not even own/want to own cars. What most people (if you check the poll numbers in this thread, the various articles that have come out from once Tesla lovers, Elon quickly getting the reputation of "boy who cried wolf" when it comes to his farsical FSD timelines) are fed up with, is Elon's repeated claims that dont pan out.

Ex: Good luck finding ANYONE who seriously believes that there will be a Robotaxi service that will have your Tesla driving around on its own with NO ONE in the car at all, generating revenue within any timeframe that Elon has promised/continues to promise. (We wont get into the aspects of people who earned free Roadsters and may never get them, Semi timelines, the $25k Tesla, etc)

I mean at some point, he has to realize that his word is becoming worthless.

 

[Bouba]

I get it/and can accept that notion. Heck, over the past several years the trend has been for younger generation to not even own/want to own cars. What most people (if you check the poll numbers in this thread, the various articles that have come out from once Tesla lovers, Elon quickly getting the reputation of "boy who cried wolf" when it comes to his farsical FSD timelines) are fed up with, is Elon's repeated claims that dont pan out.

Ex: Good luck finding ANYONE who seriously believes that there will be a Robotaxi service that will have your Tesla driving around on its own with NO ONE in the car at all, generating revenue within any timeframe that Elon has promised/continues to promise. (We wont get into the aspects of people who earned free Roadsters and may never get them, Semi timelines, the $25k Tesla, etc)

I mean at some point, he has to realize that his word is becoming worthless.

I think that is a little harsh...sure, he’s a dreamer....but two things are obvious by now...he does follow through (eventually) with all his schemes....and that the world needs dreamers

 

[Mardak]

This Deutsche Bank note from Friday was shared in Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable:

FSD goal to be safer than human driving by year end​

We also gained more color on Elon Musk's heightened focus on FSD. The company's goal is to complete development and deploy autonomous driving software this year, which will achieve safer-than-human-driving level, without the need for the driver to supervise the vehicle. We note that Tesla sees autonomy as either supervised or unsupervised (not leveled); a driver either needs to engage with hands on the wheel or be able to totally disengage; Tesla's goal is for FSD to reach what could be considered Level 4 autonomy by regulators by the end of this year. As such, Tesla will start to seek approval from the regulators for a release by the end of 2022. Prior to achieving this, much larger deployment of beta versions should be expected. We would expect the number of beta testers to grow considerably further than the 60k currently in operation with each iteration of the beta.​

 

[hatch]

This Deutsche Bank note from Friday was shared in Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable:

FSD goal to be safer than human driving by year end​

We also gained more color on Elon Musk's heightened focus on FSD. The company's goal is to complete development and deploy autonomous driving software this year, which will achieve safer-than-human-driving level, without the need for the driver to supervise the vehicle. We note that Tesla sees autonomy as either supervised or unsupervised (not leveled); a driver either needs to engage with hands on the wheel or be able to totally disengage; Tesla's goal is for FSD to reach what could be considered Level 4 autonomy by regulators by the end of this year. As such, Tesla will start to seek approval from the regulators for a release by the end of 2022. Prior to achieving this, much larger deployment of beta versions should be expected. We would expect the number of beta testers to grow considerably further than the 60k currently in operation with each iteration of the beta.​

I don't know who they talked to in the investor relations department, but surely someone in the chain has to be mis-informed? From Elon, all the way down to the person they talked to, something has broken down. I'd have to say i literally believe it's impossible by the end of the year. I don't get this.

 

[AndreP]

Here’s an article from 2017 with Deutsche Bank exclaiming that GM could achieve full autonomy in “quarters, not years!” after talking to company executives.

DEUTSCHE BANK: GM could release a self driving car 'within quarters, not years'

GM's stock is popping on a report saying the company is closer to an autonomous car than previously thought.

markets.businessinsider.com

That said, Tesla could maybe push out something this year that would qualify as Level 4 while being geofenced to some area of California and likely with a backup driver

 

[Goose66]

...two things are obvious by now...he does follow through (eventually) with all his schemes....and that the world needs dreamers

That's an easy thing to say, but does it really mean anything? I can accurately say "I always (eventually) achieve my goals" by just chalking up all the unachieved goals to simply "not done yet," making my statement true right up to my death. Eventually Tesla will deliver SOMETHING called Autosteer on City Streets (unless they use the "regulators shut us down" excuse), and at that point we can argue whether it is everything that Elon said it would be. But until that happens, even through one missed promise after another, you will always be able to say he will "eventually" deliver L4 FSD. That will be a true statement right up to the point that it isn't.

 

[TravelFree]

Here’s an article from 2017 with Deutsche Bank exclaiming that GM could achieve full autonomy in “quarters, not years!” after talking to company executives.

DEUTSCHE BANK: GM could release a self driving car 'within quarters, not years'

GM's stock is popping on a report saying the company is closer to an autonomous car than previously thought.

markets.businessinsider.com

That said, Tesla could maybe push out something this year that would qualify as Level 4 while being geofenced to some area of California and likely with a backup driver

They can do that right now. I can select a route that drives perfectly never intervening. But that isn't Tesla's goal. But I have my test route that puts beta through the paces of many obstacles and it continues to fail however several improvements can be observed with each update. That is beta testing.

Also, there are two understandings on what Tesla sells as FSD or Full Self Driving.
1. What is actually described by Tesla you get for your money.
2. What people imagine it is or should be because of the name.

Had Tesla not listed exactly what you will get for your money, they ( #2) would have a case, but they did tell me what I would get and they are delivering what they claimed it was. I am OK with that.

 

[Tez~La]

… or what Elon said it would be. Snake Oil salesman I tell ya.

 

[SalisburySam]

Does he think that ALL Tesla owners are simps/fools? Or just some?

No, not all. Just those of us who bought FSD.

 

[SalisburySam]

I'm talking about freedom to take control.. freedom to make a wrong turn, to move in a direction that you have no idea where it will take you. Freedom to change your mind in a split second to stop, U-turn, whatever you want! Yes, this requires some degree of personal responsibility that i believe society MUST enforce, but also grant the privilege!

My personal preference is for these freedoms to be held sacred in a world consisting mainly of EV's.

Oh my goodness! But, but, but, what about the freedoms of the UI developers? Do they not have the freedom to design and deliver an interface as THEY feel fits THEIR aesthetic? What about THEIR privileges? After all, they control the controls. Are THEIR freedoms not to be held sacred also? These are the kiddies who (clearly) don’t drive, don’t want to, and don’t have and aren’t pursuing licenses…and the generation building the future. What about THEIR freedoms? SOOOO narrow-minded here considering just the drivers’ freedoms. Shocking, just shocking.

 

[terranx]

I mean at some point, he has to realize that his word is becoming worthless.

That's generous. I'd argue it's been worthless for years now.

 

[WhiteWi]

I voted no but only because I believe government and outdated rules are holding back Tesla FSD deployment.

 

[dramsey]

I voted no but only because I believe government and outdated rules are holding back Tesla FSD deployment.

Can you give an example of an "outdated rule" or other government regulation that's holding back FSD development?

 

[WhiteWi]

Can you give an example of an "outdated rule" or other government regulation that's holding back FSD development?

First. I said deployment not development. Second. Latest example about rolling stop sign recall. In general if people don’t follow 85% of the time road rules why AI should follow everything by the books? Either make rules more relaxed or remove drivers that don’t obey road rules.

 

[AndreP]

First. I said deployment not development. Second. Latest example about rolling stop sign recall. In general if people don’t follow 85% of the time road rules why AI should follow everything by the books? Either make rules more relaxed or remove drivers that don’t obey road rules.

We can bet that FSD users complaining to the NHTSA is the reason the investigation began and the recall was issued. I'm guessing that's because people can choose to risk rolling through stop signs, but a Level 2 ADAS taking those risks likely doesn't fly with users who otherwise wouldn't take that risk but are liable for the actions of the system.

 

[Tez~La]

If it were to be more human like then it would know when to roll thru a stop sign and when not to. FSD can barely make left turns in my area and misses right turns that are plotted on the GPS because it changes to the left line when a right turn is coming. To relax regulations when this software is clearly not ready for prime time would be nuts.

 

[WhiteWi]

We can bet that FSD users complaining to the NHTSA is the reason the investigation began and the recall was issued. I'm guessing that's because people can choose to risk rolling through stop signs, but a Level 2 ADAS taking those risks likely doesn't fly with users who otherwise wouldn't take that risk but are liable for the actions of the system.

Based on recall numbers only beta testers effected.

 

[WhiteWi]

If it were to be more human like then it would know when to roll thru a stop sign and when not to. FSD can barely make left turns in my area and misses right turns that are plotted on the GPS because it changes to the left line when a right turn is coming. To relax regulations when this software is clearly not ready for prime time would be nuts.

I am not arguing about it. Just my personal point of view. Which not necessarily correct. But my belief is if you want people to follow rules make sure it applies to everyone equally and enforced equally. Which lately as we can see is not the case in many areas of our great country.
Great article to support my point of view.

Feds Make Tesla Remove ‘Rolling Stops.’ It’s A Terrible Decision

NHTSA is forcing Tesla to do a "recall" to turn off the ability to do rolling stops in their FSD prototype. Is this obvious safety or a big overreach? Probably more of the latter.

www.forbes.com

 

[TravelFree]

FSD Beta will only perform a rolling stop if all these conditions are met:

1. The functionality must be enabled within the FSD Beta Profile settings; and

2. The vehicle must be approaching an all-way stop intersection; and

3. The vehicle must be traveling below 5.6mph; and

4. No relevant moving cars are detected near the intersection; and

5. No relevant pedestrians or bicyclists are detected near the intersection; and

6. There is sufficient visibility for the vehicle while approaching the intersection; and

7. All roads entering the intersection have a speed limit of 30 mph or less.


After speaking with NHTSA, Tesla agreed to send out an update to FSD Beta testers that will disable rolling stops when using the assertive driving profile. The recall outlines that Tesla will release the update as version 2021.44.30.15.