Powerwall 3 Roadmap - 3 Phase Coming!

[Gareth Oakes]

You can't directly compare the Redback ST10000 to a single Powerwall 2, because the Tesla option is a single-phase unit, whereas ST10000 is a true three-phase device. Also Redback uses Pylontech LFP batteries whereas Powerwall 2 is Tesla NCM.
When we purchased the Redback our shortlist also included Fronius+BYD and Huawei options. Redback was very slightly cheaper than Huawei and almost $4000 less than Fronius. Our system is a 10kW hybrid inverter with 14.2kWh of battery and 10kW of panels. Purchase price including removal of old system and installation of new inverter, panels, etc. was in the region of $22k from memory. Redback is a single integrated unit including instant switchover to battery backup at no extra cost.
Back then the Powerwall 2 was $14k just for the battery, then you had to add the backup gateway, backup switch, and other electrical components. Adding on the 10kW of panels plus installation fees would have brought it quite close to the Redback cost.
Redback does have a mobile app, web portal, and REST API. I would say the Tesla app and software is more sophisticated, but the Redback software certainly does everything we need.

 

[Vostok]

Back then the Powerwall 2 was $14k just for the battery, then you had to add the backup gateway, backup switch, and other electrical components. Adding on the 10kW of panels plus installation fees would have brought it quite close to the Redback cost.

Hmmm… my PW2 was installed in 2019 and it was fully installed with all components (Gateway etc) for $12,600.

 

[JonDarian]

Hmmm… my PW2 was installed in 2019 and it was fully installed with all components (Gateway etc) for $12,600.

My experience was similar.

 

[Nevyn72]

Hmmm… my PW2 was installed in 2019 and it was fully installed with all components (Gateway etc) for $12,600.

Current cost for a PW2 + Gateway + install is typically ~$15K...

Just organised an install of a quality Solaredge + Trinna, 10.5kW panel, 8.25kW inverter setup at my folks place for ~$9K (Rural so a bit more expensive)

So that's ~$24K for a single phase setup.

 

[jamesgo]

Hmmm… my PW2 was installed in 2019 and it was fully installed with all components (Gateway etc) for $12,600.

Fully installed in 2017 by Tesla... $10,860.74

 

[Chenkers]

Current cost for a PW2 + Gateway + install is typically ~$15K...

Just organised an install of a quality Solaredge + Trinna, 10.5kW panel, 8.25kW inverter setup at my folks place for ~$9K (Rural so a bit more expensive)

So that's ~$24K for a single phase setup.

Current cost for PW2 is $10,400 plus $1700 for the gateway, with typical install around $2500. So $14,600 all up ($15k close enough). We don't have AU costs for PW3 yet but in the USA they've kept PW3 costs the same as PW2, so a reasonable expectation that we will see the same.

With PW3 you wouldn't have the cost of the Solaredge inverter, say $2850 depending on model. And with PW3 you are getting effectively an 11.5kW inverter (likely to get nerfed to 10kw in AU) with 6 MPPT strings and the ability to connect up to 20kW of solar. So a bit under $21k in your case and that's for solar plus 13.5kWhr battery, not just solar.

In my case I've recently done the numbers and I believe PW3 will actually save me money compared to just solar without storage. I already have 15kW of bifacial solar panels sitting on a palet in the shed, waiting for me to build the carport they will be installed on (BIPV). I currently have a single phase 40A connection to the street and with installing this much solar I was planning to have to upgrade to 3 phase power. However, installing a PW3 should allow me to keep my current single phase connection, avoiding a lot of expensive upgrade costs. By my calculations the cost for me of a PW3 on single phase is much cheaper than a good string inverter (eg Fronius) with 3 phase upgrade and a lot cheaper than micro-inverters (Enphase). So I would effectively end up getting the battery storage for free. Add in the extra savings for self consuming stored solar and VPP discounts and it seems a no-brainer.

 

[Davemcd]

Fully installed in 2017 by Tesla... $10,860.74

View attachment 1021009

Yes find it interesting that battery prices seem to be going up.. not down.
$15k for 13.5kw battery or $60k for a car with 60kw battery.. you do wonder why they not dropped.
I prefer go LFP although PW3 with inverter silly for those with Solar and inverter already.
Wonder if a PW4 come out just the LFP battery and AC again

 

[OzVic]

1/11/23 - Installed total cost of Powerwall 2 + gateway was $13.5k (Newcastle).

$750 rebate from Tesla + $800 bill credit from Simply Energy on their VPP.

 

[jamesgo]

$750 rebate from Tesla

So jack the price by a few thousand and give back a few hundred

I wouldn't bother with most of the VPP's btw, i'd just go for Amber Electric or another wholesaler. There is more money to be made by the wholesale grid price fluctuations as long as you can adapt your car to also be charged (normally in the middle of the day when prices go negative). It also means you don't need a large solar system installed, in fact smaller/mid normally works better cause doing arbitrage on the wholesale rates with the battery earns well.

It's also why on our next house (we're about to sell and upsize), we'll get 2 Powerwall units, you'll realise 1 can be depleated quite quickly.

 

[Jules22]

So jack the price by a few thousand and give back a few hundred

I wouldn't bother with most of the VPP's btw, i'd just go for Amber Electric or another wholesaler. There is more money to be made by the wholesale grid price fluctuations as long as you can adapt your car to also be charged (normally in the middle of the day when prices go negative). It also means you don't need a large solar system installed, in fact smaller/mid normally works better cause doing arbitrage on the wholesale rates with the battery earns well.

It's also why on our next house (we're about to sell and upsize), we'll get 2 Powerwall units, you'll realise 1 can be depleated quite quickly.

Yep, 100% agree. Are you aware of any other wholesalers? I'm only aware of Amber at this point. Definitely very happy with them though.

 

[paulp]

Current cost for PW2 is $10,400 plus $1700 for the gateway, with typical install around $2500. So $14,600 all up ($15k close enough). We don't have AU costs for PW3 yet but in the USA they've kept PW3 costs the same as PW2, so a reasonable expectation that we will see the same.

With PW3 you wouldn't have the cost of the Solaredge inverter, say $2850 depending on model. And with PW3 you are getting effectively an 11.5kW inverter (likely to get nerfed to 10kw in AU) with 6 MPPT strings and the ability to connect up to 20kW of solar. So a bit under $21k in your case and that's for solar plus 13.5kWhr battery, not just solar.

In my case I've recently done the numbers and I believe PW3 will actually save me money compared to just solar without storage. I already have 15kW of bifacial solar panels sitting on a palet in the shed, waiting for me to build the carport they will be installed on (BIPV). I currently have a single phase 40A connection to the street and with installing this much solar I was planning to have to upgrade to 3 phase power. However, installing a PW3 should allow me to keep my current single phase connection, avoiding a lot of expensive upgrade costs. By my calculations the cost for me of a PW3 on single phase is much cheaper than a good string inverter (eg Fronius) with 3 phase upgrade and a lot cheaper than micro-inverters (Enphase). So I would effectively end up getting the battery storage for free. Add in the extra savings for self consuming stored solar and VPP discounts and it seems a no-brainer.

View attachment 1021027

I suspect 15kw of solar trying to export through your 40amp connection when the battery is full may cause you some issues. Do you have an installers thoughts on that?

 

[Quickst]

My peak tariff period consumption is about 30kW per peak period per day in Winter and 15kW in Summer

What is an appropriate sized battery to cover peak period consumption?
Products with LFP suggest 80% DoD. What is an appropriate DoD?

 

[paulp]

My peak tariff period consumption is about 30kW per peak period per day in Winter and 15kW in Summer

What is an appropriate sized battery to cover peak period consumption?
Products with LFP suggest 80% DoD. What is an appropriate DoD?

You need to determine kwh to work out required battery size. The peak input in kW isn’t overly relevent in sizing. Each battery can only receive 5kw. Typically you will want a lot more batteries in winter and a lot less batteries in summer. Do you have solar as that is also a consideration? I discharge to 8% remaining in winter (which is probably 12-13% as tesla leave some in the battery but in summer its more like 50% as we fill eah day and use much less overnight compared to winter.

 

[Borgy]

I suspect 15kw of solar trying to export through your 40amp connection when the battery is full may cause you some issues. Do you have an installers thoughts on that?

Configure max export rate on the inverter, so will just curtail production when full

 

[Quickst]

You need to determine kwh to work out required battery size

Sorry I meant peak period GRID IMPORT consumption of 30kWh in winter and 15kWh in summer (per peak period per day)

3 phase SMA inverter
25kW nominal installed panels

2023 annual:

 

[paulp]

Sorry I meant peak period GRID IMPORT consumption of 30kWh in winter and 15kWh in summer (per peak period per day)

3 phase SMA inverter
25kW nominal installed panels

2023 annual:
View attachment 1022003

I have 30kw of solar and 3 batteries. I seriously dislike importing power regardless of the cost.
With the odd exception, here is how that works out:
In summer I regret 3 batteries as I use half the capacity on most nights.
In Autumn and Spring I congratulate myself on getting my solar/battery ratio perfect for most days. My battery reaches its selected shutoff point around 5 to 10 minutes before solar starts in the morning, and my exports are minimal. In winter….I wish i had more roof for more solar and more batteries. I rarely fill my batteries, and they are usually flat by mid evening. I usually explore a wind turbine option this time of year. I dont have tou so i cannot get cheap power to refil the batteries. The good bit is I export a lot in summer which used to cover the entire winter bill, but these days with fit rates its only covering half.
So that is what 3 batteries looks like….for my use pattern. If you are doing 30/15 kwh its sounds very similar - you probably need 2.5 batteries. My generation last year was 43.5 mwh and total use was 37.8mwh.

 

[Quickst]

I seriously dislike importing power regardless of the cost.

I used to think purely in terms of relative price per kWh

Now as the peak tariffs are rising and I get tired of annually phoning up threatening to disconnect and go to a competitor retainer I'm beginning to be more of a "here is the middle finger"

30kWh / 80% DoD in winter suggests 38kWh installed battery capacity. = 3PW2

5kW continuous rate per battery x3 = 15kW instantaneous draw which should be Ok for 99.9% of circumstances.

If Tesla does an LFP I would sign up almost immediately.

BTW what SoC is your shutoff point?

 

[paulp]

I used to think purely in terms of relative price per kWh

Now as the peak tariffs are rising and I get tired of annually phoning up threatening to disconnect and go to a competitor retainer I'm beginning to be more of a "here is the middle finger"

30kWh / 80% DoD in winter suggests 38kWh installed battery capacity. = 3PW2

5kW continuous rate per battery x3 = 15kW instantaneous draw which should be Ok for 99.9% of circumstances.

If Tesla does an LFP I would sign up almost immediately.

BTW what SoC is your shutoff point?

I have it set at 8% soc cutoff, but it only really gets there around half the year.

 

[Chenkers]

I suspect 15kw of solar trying to export through your 40amp connection when the battery is full may cause you some issues. Do you have an installers thoughts on that?

5kW export limit through the Powerwall3 complies with Jemena requirements.

 

[Chenkers]

It is per battery, so if you have 3 it is 15kw

Just 1 x PW3 planned so OK.