PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

[bwa]

Exactly! It's not about whether this will work for me as an individual, it's whether it works for the population in general. Crowd-sourcing storage.

Robert Boston said in response to this general question:

Plan: Off grid solar with a Model S battery pack at the heart - Page 54

Once you fully comprehend what he's saying, I think you could answer a lot of these individual-vs-group questions yourself, if even just in shades of probabilities.

 

[Foghat]

I finally got to watch a recording of last night's event.

Wow.

I understand that many people here are impatient for details on the Powerwall's overall cost and economics, but Elon's presentation last night was about the big picture. At the end of the video I was more hopeful than ever.

For years many people have insisted that solar and wind weren't viable because of intermittency. The infinitely scalable 100 kWh Powerpack is proof that what people said was impossible, is possible.

Elon's presentation was just fine. Yes, he stutters, but that almost seemed like it was out of gleeful excitement. No, he's not Steve Jobs, but I feel that he is on Jobs' level, just with a different style. I don't think Jobs would have wanted Elon to copy him anyways.

While Wall Street obsesses over the economics of Powerwall, they are missing the impending forest of Powerpacks.

In my opinion, Elon is the most likable and identifiable billionaire CEO, visionary maybe ever. If you didn't know it, you would think you're listening to your nerdy buddy in algebra class, or your quirky college roommate late at night cramming for finals hyped up on red bull fumes. He expresses his fears, foibles, but never gives up on reaching higher for all his friends and family(and the rest of us too). Elon is using his mind to have the courage to follow his heart and that's something we wish to do in our own lives. His palpable fear of public speaking just makes him more endearing and real and that's something rare in this world of polished, calculating, and distant, and scripted CEOs looking no further then their golden parachute. Elon is the business Titan of our times and needs to be emulated for generations to come.

 

[MarcG]

In my opinion, Elon is the most likable and identifiable billionaire CEO, visionary maybe ever. If you didn't know it, you would think you're listening to your nerdy buddy in algebra class, or your quirky college roommate late at night cramming for finals hyped up on red bull fumes. He expresses his fears, foibles, but never gives up on reaching higher for all his friends and family(and the rest of us too). Elon is using his mind to have the courage to follow his heart and that's something we wish to do in our own lives. His palpable fear of public speaking just makes him more endearing and real and that's something rare in this world of polished, calculating, and distant, and scripted CEOs looking no further then their golden parachute. Elon is the business Titan of our times and needs to be emulated for generations to come.

+1 very well said!

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Lets assume 1 kW/h cost to produce $.03 during off peak hours and each kW/h of battery replaces killowatt hour that produced at peak plant cost of $0.07. For $250 we will get simplified payoff time of 25000c/4c=6250 days or over 17 years. Add ROI, maintenence. Payoff time at $250 is too high. This is why EOS Energy talking about $160 per kW/h. At 160 they are much more competitive.

EOS Energy is a tiny startup with no scale whatsoever. They have not, and might well never, achieve their targeted $160/kWh price because they still need vast amounts of capital to achieve the economies of scale required to hit their price target.

That is especially the case because Tesla is already at scale, and they are preparing to expand even more. The $250/kWh price is the current price. By 2020 Morgan Stanley is expecting their prices to drop to $150/kWh in their baseline scenario (fundamentally this forecast is based on Elon saying that economies of scale will drop their prices by ~30% (minimum) without assuming better chemistries), and they believe it is very possible that Tesla can drive the price down to ~$125/kWh.

As to your calculations, Oncor seems to think it can be profitable at the $350/kWh range and I've seen other analysts state that as well. As a result of their confidence they are planning on investing upwards of $5 billion in the next few years, based largely on a study that was very careful to note the potential of Tesla.

The news reports regarding the Oncor investment linked Oncor and Tesla very publicly, and I'm not aware of any player outside of possibly BYD who will be in a position to install 5GWh of storage by 2020, so it seems likely that Tesla is poised to gain the bulk of that business.

Whatever theoretical advantages other systems might hold, Tesla has a first mover advantage, is already at scale, and is about to be at super scale. Utilities are signing billion dollar contracts right now. Companies touting $15m in Series C financing with future target pricing which is already on the verge of being beat by the incumbent face a very grim future.

We discussed this all a couple of years ago, and we spent a lot of time and effort trying to decide what the economic value of this business will be going forward. Whatever the ultimate revenue numbers will turn out to be, this is clearly going to be a huge business and at this point Tesla is lapping the field.

 

[wk057]

I've contemplated the PowerWall most of the day, off and on... and, well.... bring on the haters: Elon, I love you... but the PowerWall isn't that great...... yet.

 

[Bgarret]

EOS Energy is a tiny startup with no scale whatsoever. They have not, and might well never, achieve their targeted $160/kWh price because they still need vast amounts of capital to achieve the economies of scale required to hit their price target.

That is especially the case because Tesla is already at scale, and they are preparing to expand even more. The $250/kWh price is the current price. By 2020 Morgan Stanley is expecting their prices to drop to $150/kWh in their baseline scenario (fundamentally this forecast is based on Elon saying that economies of scale will drop their prices by ~30% (minimum) without assuming better chemistries), and they believe it is very possible that Tesla can drive the price down to ~$125/kWh.

As to your calculations, Oncor seems to think it can be profitable at the $350/kWh range and I've seen other analysts state that as well. As a result of their confidence they are planning on investing upwards of $5 billion in the next few years, based largely on a study that was very careful to note the potential of Tesla.

The news reports regarding the Oncor investment linked Oncor and Tesla very publicly, and I'm not aware of any player outside of possibly BYD who will be in a position to install 5GWh of storage by 2020, so it seems likely that Tesla is poised to gain the bulk of that business.

Whatever theoretical advantages other systems might hold, Tesla has a first mover advantage, is already at scale, and is about to be at super scale. Utilities are signing billion dollar contracts right now. Companies touting $15m in Series C financing with future target pricing which is already on the verge of being beat by the incumbent face a very grim future.

We discussed this all a couple of years ago, and we spent a lot of time and effort trying to decide what the economic value of this business will be going forward. Whatever the ultimate revenue numbers will turn out to be, this is clearly going to be a huge business and at this point Tesla is lapping the field.

I went back to the thread CapOp recommended and found this gem originally posted by DeonB.

Tesla's new core business? CES Grid Storage Device For SuperCharger/SuperSwapper - Page 9

essentially PG&E paid $23million for 5MW of storage in 2013....would be a good exercise to see how the new Tesla 100kWh battery would scale up in comparison.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I went back to the thread CapOp recommended and found this gem originally posted by DeonB.

Tesla's new core business? CES Grid Storage Device For SuperCharger/SuperSwapper - Page 9

essentially PG&E paid $23million for 5MW of storage in 2013....would be a good exercise to see how the new Tesla 100kWh battery would scale up in comparison.

The data points to the competitive grid storage offerings being costed at ~$700-$3,000/kWh. Tesla is currently $250/kWh and seems likely to fall below $150/kWh in just 4-5 years. Morgan Stanley expects the strongest competitors at that point to be in the $500/kWh range.

This means there really isn't any competitors for Tesla right now, and likely still wont be in 2020. Oncor is talking about installing 5GWh of storage over the next few years, and their roadmap calls for 15GWh of storage (after which the ROI for each additional $ of CapEx starts to decrease).

That is just a single utility, and there literally isn't any other battery manufacturer that will even have close to the capacity of Tesla, outside of possibly BYD (though I am skeptical that they will follow through on the required investments since they don't have a guaranteed customer like Tesla has (ie Tesla itself)). For that matter, even Tesla is capacity constrained on this timeline when you consider the battery requirements for vehicle packs, SuperChargers and potentially multi-GWh buys by Oncor and others.

 

[Calvin.K]

Tesla unveils super-battery to power homes

[video]http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/tesla-unveils-super-battery-to-power-homes/[/video]

 

[Cosmacelf]

Did anyone else notice that the Powerwall battery is probably a different chemistry than what Tesla has been using so far? Tesla has had something like 300 home sites using a gen 1 home battery. The specs for those are 10 kWh and 5 kW power output. This new Powerwall is 10 kWh and 2 kW power output. That's quite a difference.

My suspicion is that this new battery is built for longer life (and maybe lower price) but less power output since they've realized, with their data from their existing installations, that high power output isn't needed.

 

[wk057]

Did anyone else notice that the Powerwall battery is probably a different chemistry than what Tesla has been using so far? Tesla has had something like 300 home sites using a gen 1 home battery. The specs for those are 10 kWh and 5 kW power output. This new Powerwall is 10 kWh and 2 kW power output. That's quite a difference.

My suspicion is that this new battery is built for longer life (and maybe lower price) but less power output since they've realized, with their data from their existing installations, that high power output isn't needed.

My suspicion is that the 2kW limitation is for the DC-DC converter that makes it usable with string inverters and not the underlying batteries.

 

[Ampster]

You mean inverters like the Radian that run at 48vDC? The Solar Edge seems to run at 350v.

 

[wk057]

You mean inverters like the Radian that run at 48vDC? The Solar Edge seems to run at 350v.

Most grid tie string inverters work at high input voltages. However, they can't be used for backup power of off-grid power like the Radians.

I was referring the internal DC-DC (not inverter) that Elon and the site refer to in the PowerWall.

 

[FredTMC]

Did anyone else notice that the Powerwall battery is probably a different chemistry than what Tesla has been using so far? Tesla has had something like 300 home sites using a gen 1 home battery. The specs for those are 10 kWh and 5 kW power output. This new Powerwall is 10 kWh and 2 kW power output. That's quite a difference.

My suspicion is that this new battery is built for longer life (and maybe lower price) but less power output since they've realized, with their data from their existing installations, that high power output isn't needed.

I would love love it if it was an older (slightly less energy density) chemistry. My hope is that tesla gets these cells from different production lines than the car cells. In the words, I hope there is a separate underutilized supply of these storage cells so that this division can scale quickly in 2016

 

[Ampster]

Most grid tie string inverters work at high input voltages. However, they can't be used for backup power of off-grid power like the Radians.

I was referring the internal DC-DC (not inverter) that Elon and the site refer to in the PowerWall.

And that explains the higher inverter cost you articulated in your *Love you Elon" thread.

 

[anon]

My hope is that tesla gets these cells from different production lines than the car cells. In the words, I hope there is a separate underutilized supply of these storage cells so that this division can scale quickly in 2016

It's likely that Telsa is getting these from Samsung instead of Panasonic, as it was indicated in the 10-Q after first quarter earnings that Samsung would supply around 8% of Tesla's cells this year.

 

[InTheShadows]

Most grid tie string inverters work at high input voltages. However, they can't be used for backup power of off-grid power like the Radians.

I was referring the internal DC-DC (not inverter) that Elon and the site refer to in the PowerWall.

@Wk057, what do you think about the Powerwall plugging straight into the solar inputs of string inverters? The voltage and power exactly match the voltage range. And 350 is exactly what solaredge optimizers run at all the time.

If they have their own MPPT system in them or a pass through system then they could be plugged in series with solar panels. Making their retrofit extremely easy.

If they need charged it takes the power straight from the solar array and charges the batteries, and if the batteries are full it just passes the rest back to the grid.

This would also make it extremely easy to em qualify for the tax credit since the solar panels are hooked straight to the batteries.

There could be multiple outputs for them too.

This would be the most efficient way to run the system. Straight dc from the solar array and the system giving straight voltage to the solar inverters. Since it is in the sweet spot of string inverters it would work with almost all string inverters in place now. Even my old PV Powered one.

And then what about a plug from the battery straight to our cars. Ooh. I'm dreaming now.

 

[ReversePolarity]

I don't know if anyone has covered this yet in this thread but I have no incentive to store energy at home if I have a residential solar system in the province of Ontario. If I put up panels I can sell the power into the grid at a guaranteed price of $0.384 for twenty years for a max 10kW system. That is about 2X the highest price that I pay for electricty (we have time of use pricing in Toronto). Therefore there is no reason for me to store power as I get the same rate no matter when I sell the power back into the grid.

This would work for non-solar homes or if your situation doesn't allow you to go solar. Essentially purchase 3 powerwalls to charge up during off peak rates and then use the power during day time. Works great if 3 costs $10k vs 20-30k for solar.

Or another application is if you live in an apartment or residential high rise, or for business owners who lease their office/warehouse. To purchase at night and use during the daytime.

 

[wk057]

@Wk057, what do you think about the Powerwall plugging straight into the solar inputs of string inverters? The voltage and power exactly match the voltage range. And 350 is exactly what solaredge optimizers run at all the time.

If they have their own MPPT system in them or a pass through system then they could be plugged in series with solar panels. Making their retrofit extremely easy.

If they need charged it takes the power straight from the solar array and charges the batteries, and if the batteries are full it just passes the rest back to the grid.

This would also make it extremely easy to em qualify for the tax credit since the solar panels are hooked straight to the batteries.

There could be multiple outputs for them too.

This would be the most efficient way to run the system. Straight dc from the solar array and the system giving straight voltage to the solar inverters. Since it is in the sweet spot of string inverters it would work with almost all string inverters in place now. Even my old PV Powered one.

And then what about a plug from the battery straight to our cars. Ooh. I'm dreaming now.

I do get the impression that plugging them into an existing solar string inverter is the current use case as it stands. I still don't see the financial benefit to doing so, however. See my analysis of such things in my other thread.

This would work for non-solar homes or if your situation doesn't allow you to go solar. Essentially purchase 3 powerwalls to charge up during off peak rates and then use the power during day time. Works great if 3 costs $10k vs 20-30k for solar.

Or another application is if you live in an apartment or residential high rise, or for business owners who lease their office/warehouse. To purchase at night and use during the daytime.

Grid arbitrage is not going to work out well with this without solar. See my other thread.

 

[EldestOyster]

- Grid power costs $0,33 pr kWh (all prices in $US) and 80% of that is tax.

I see a problem here if everyone starts doing this. Your government [OP is in Denmark] loses its tax revenue and starts looking for ways to recover it. There's a similar discussion here in the U.S. A sizable percentage of gasoline sales is taxed to maintain the roads, and I am no longer buying much of that.

- Solarpower shipped to the grid can be used inside of an hour with no penalty. Hence the grid is a 1-hour battery.

Requoted simply because I found that interesting. Kind of a wash sale rule in reverse.

 

[jerry33]

I see a problem here if everyone starts doing this. Your government [OP is in Denmark] loses its tax revenue and starts looking for ways to recover it. There's a similar discussion here in the U.S. A sizable percentage of gasoline sales is taxed to maintain the roads

At least around here, the gas tax goes into general revenue, only a tiny portion of it would actually go to fix roads (maybe less than that judging by the condition of the roads). So the idea that gas tax pays for roads is a kind of misdirection--it's just another hidden tax.