Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Hmmmm, but then that shows that every week in 2019, the refineries produced LESS gasoline than 2018, which would be consistent with higher EV penetration. If we're going to consider anomalies, then 2020 would be more of an anomaly, especially since the refinery productions fluctuated week by week (sometimes lower than 2018/2019, other times lower).

I like mblakele's suggestion of weather, but CA winters are mild enough that I would discount its effect.

Here's net refinery gasoline output for the first 16 weeks of 2014 to 2020, calculated as production - stock change. 2020 doesn't look unusual until March. If anything, it's 2019 that looks unusual.

PEV isn't going to make much of a dent yet. The percentage of new vehicle PEV sales is low, new vehicle sales are a small part of the overall market and the average age of vehicles in the USA is over 11 years.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Here's net refinery gasoline output for the first 16 weeks of 2014 to 2020, calculated as production - stock change. 2020 doesn't look unusual until March. If anything, it's 2019 that looks unusual.

PEV isn't going to make much of a dent yet. The percentage of new vehicle PEV sales is low, new vehicle sales are a small part of the overall market and the average age of vehicles in the USA is over 11 years.

View attachment 531085

I see. The "normal" band does seem to be pretty noisy. I thought that my assumption that EV adopters were generally high mileage drivers like myself, was reasonable. So despite the low percentage (It's ~10% of the CA market), our impact would be greater. It seems that many of the high mileage drivers are still on gas/diesel.

Trucking perhaps? I know my own milage has been curtailed 90%. I imagine that most other non-essentials, who are WFH or SAH, would see similiar reductions, yet refinery output is barely showing a 30% drop (on a weekly basis).

 

[mspohr]

Trump wants to increase the price of oil... how about a hefty carbon tax... that should do it.

 

[SageBrush]

Trump wants to increase the price of oil... how about a hefty carbon tax... that should do it.

It does sound funny, but I presume it is an attempt at salvaging the fracking industry.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hospital Visits Declined After Sulfur Dioxide Reductions from Louisville-Area Coal Plants

 

[mspohr]

https://electrek.co/2020/04/17/egeb...efficient-coal-plants-has-just-gone-bankrupt/

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Electric Power Monthly!

April edition, for capacity changes and generation February 2020. In Electric Power Monthly time, the Wuhan virus still hasn't hit the USA hard yet.

Coal capacity dropped 416.2MW in February 2020 to end at 227,195.5MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased. Last month, the 12 month net capacity change forecast was -6,743.1MW. This month the forecast decreased by 675.3MW to -7,000.2MW.

Coal's rolling 12 month share dropped another 0.60% to 21.90%, a drop of 4.99% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. February 2020 generation was 56.1TWh compared to 80.1TWh in 2019, down and rolling 12 month generation falling to 906.3TWh compared to compared to 1,129.3TWh a year ago.

Nuclear capacity fell only very slightly in January 2020, down 27.8MW to 98,042.4MW.

Nuclear generation was slightly up in February 2020 (66.0TWh v 64.7TWh), with rolling generation up to 811.1TWh compared with 806.1TWh to February 2019.

Coal generation is normally moderate in February, but it was historically low, incuding lower than the previous April 2019 low. The mild winter might have made the reduction more extreme, especially due to depressed natural gas prices, but nuclear generation was up on 2019,

Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 223.0TWh in 12 months. The difference between coal and nuclear 12 month rolling generation is now only 95.1TWh. Coal generation is increasingly likely to be lower than nuclear generation before the end of 2020.

Average coal capacity factors were again extremely low. February capacity factors have normally been in the 49% to 51% range, but were 36.4% in February 2020. Only April 2019 was lower.

Petroleum liquids and petroleum coke generation also fell.

Coal:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	227,611.7	-416.2	227,195.5	-0.18%
YTD	229,241.4	-2,045.9	227,195.5	-0.89%
Rolling	239,557.9	-12,362.4	227,195.5	-5.16%
Plan +12mo	-6,743.1	-675.3	-7,002.2	.

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	239,549.6	-12,371.1	227,178.5	-5.16%
Month Factor	50.5%	-14.1%	36.4%	-27.92%
Rolling 12mo Factor	53.1%	-8.3%	44.9%	-15.55%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2019	80,104	181,112	1,129,265	25.37%	26.82%	26.89%
2020	56,057	121,227	906,263	17.54%	18.34%	21.90%
Difference	-24,047	-59,885	-223,002	-7.83%	-8.48%	-4.99%

Nuclear:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	98,042.4	76.6	98,119.0	0.08%
YTD	98,070.2	48.8	98,119.0	0.05%
Rolling	99,391.6	-1,272.6	98,119.0	-1.28%
Plan +12mo	-1,597.5	76.6	-1,597.5	.

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	99,431.1	-1,312.1	98,119.0	-1.32%
Month Factor	96.9%	-0.3%	96.6%	-0.31%
Rolling 12mo Factor	92.4%	1.1%	93.6%	1.24%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2019	64,715	138,416	806,061	20.50%	20.49%	19.19%
2020	65,950	140,154	811,148	20.64%	21.20%	19.60%
Difference	1,235	1,738	5,087	0.14%	0.70%	0.40%

 

[Steve_T]

I think you’re trying to correlate normal use to what’s been going on lately. You can’t do that when more than 3/4 of the industrial, retail, and restaurant workforce have been shutdown these statistics are meaningless in that context.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think you’re trying to correlate normal use to what’s been going on lately. You can’t do that when more than 3/4 of the industrial, retail, and restaurant workforce have been shutdown these statistics are meaningless in that context.

The data above being discussed are from February 2020, before the Wuhan virus hit in any significant way.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Exclusive: Chesapeake Energy preparing bankruptcy filing

 

[dgpcolorado]

Royal Dutch Shell Cuts Dividend for First Time Since World War II. Here’s What It Means.

 

[mspohr]

Fossil fuels: Save the workers, kill the industry

In this situation, governments must step in to help fossil fuel workers. First, it is the right thing to do. Workers in the fossil fuel industry are not responsible for climate change. Just like everyone else, they are simply trying to make a living and provide for their families. They do not have much say over the ethically problematic decisions made by corporate leaders, such as denying the existence of climate change.

In contrast, the fossil fuel industry itself does not need generous government support. Oil, gas and coal production must decrease if we are to stop climate disruption. Their business model is fundamentally incompatible with a low-carbon world economy. Their owners, including large institutional investors such as pension plans, knew the risks when they invested in ecologically destructive sources of energy.

 

[Dr. J]

In contrast, the fossil fuel industry itself does not need generous government support. Oil, gas and coal production must decrease if we are to stop climate disruption. Their business model is fundamentally incompatible with a low-carbon world economy. Their owners, including large institutional investors such as pension plans, knew the risks when they invested in ecologically destructive sources of energy.

These days, it's getting to be un-American to not rescue every business and every shareholder from their self-inflicted distress. I apologize if that sounds like a Tea Party rant.

 

[mblakele]

This blog post from UCS lists over a dozen policy proposals to assist coal workers and their communities.
How to Help Coal Communities Recover from the Pandemic

 

[eevee-fan]

Trump wants to increase the price of oil... how about a hefty carbon tax... that should do it.

Actually, there may be a good compromise. We will just pretend carbon tax is tariff and Trump will be in favor. Adding tax to imports is actually a good way to reduce increase self reliance/reduce reliance on other countries. This will also accelerate our transition to renewables.

 

[David_Cary]

Yeah - except we easily meet our domestic consumption needs. I understand we import oil but the net is very close to zero.

Either way, it doesn't amount to a hill of beans. The net flow was so slow for 2019, that it can easily be wiped for 2020. And right now what we do import, 50% is from Canada and I am willing to bet that our new NAFTA has a specific provision for that oil.

 

[mspohr]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Nuclear is Getting Hammered by Green Power and the Pandemic
Plant operators are forced to switch uneconomic units off because of low prices and slumping demand
“When you take it to the extreme, you get generators not designed to provide flexibility having to provide flexibility and that’s where nuclear finds itself.”

While U.S. nuclear operators aren’t forced to ramp down output akin to their European peers, plants that can’t compete in the market have gradually shut down. With prices in a rut, eight stations have gone dark since 2013. At least four more are scheduled to close permanently by 2025, including after one unit north of New York City shut at the end of April.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Yeah - except we easily meet our domestic consumption needs. I understand we import oil but the net is very close to zero.

Either way, it doesn't amount to a hill of beans. The net flow was so slow for 2019, that it can easily be wiped for 2020. And right now what we do import, 50% is from Canada and I am willing to bet that our new NAFTA has a specific provision for that oil.

The USA went net-positive. But the reason it's net positive is because the oil price was high enough to support expensive domestic production methods. Without specific protectionist action, longer-term low prices would again replace a lot of that supply with cheaper imported oil.

Since Republicans believe in open competition and free trade, they'll obviously not want to subsidize domestic oil.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Nuclear is Getting Hammered by Green Power and the Pandemic
Plant operators are forced to switch uneconomic units off because of low prices and slumping demand
“When you take it to the extreme, you get generators not designed to provide flexibility having to provide flexibility and that’s where nuclear finds itself.”

While U.S. nuclear operators aren’t forced to ramp down output akin to their European peers, plants that can’t compete in the market have gradually shut down. With prices in a rut, eight stations have gone dark since 2013. At least four more are scheduled to close permanently by 2025, including after one unit north of New York City shut at the end of April.

Nuclear's been increasing capacity factors even as coal generation has plummeted. If nuclear's struggling, just imagine how badly coal's doing.

 

[Dr. J]

Since Republicans believe in open competition and free trade, they'll obviously not want to subsidize domestic oil.

The "disagree" is for this statement. Republicans don't, as rule, believe in open competition and free trade since the Trump nomination in 2016. Their desire for subsidizing domestic oil will be based on what state they represent and how politically expedient the subsidies are.