Electric Power Monthly!
August edition, for capacity changes and generation June 2020. In Electric Power Monthly time, the restrictions are easing.
Coal capacity reduced in June 2020, by 965.5MW to at 223,559.6MW. Forecast capacity reductions continue. Last month, the 12 month net capacity change forecast was -5,759.1MW. This month the forecast decreased by -1,160.8MW to -5,954.4MW.
Coal's rolling 12 month share dropped another 0.33% to 20.11%, a drop of 5.75% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. June 2020 generation was 65.5TWh compared to 78.6TWh in 2019, and rolling 12 month generation falling to 820.4TWh compared to 1,077.6TWh a year ago. Although the drop compared to the previous year was smaller than for previous months this year, June 2019 was unusually low.
Nuclear capacity was essentially unchanged in June 2020, increasing by 18.0MW to 97,120.9MW. Planned capacity reductions were also unchanged at -1,619.3MW.
Nuclear generation was slightly down in June 2020 (67.2TWh v 68.8TWh), with rolling generation at 804.3TWh compared with 804.5TWh to June 2019.
Coal generation in June has historically been the 4th or 5th highest month for generation, and it is on track to be the same this year, but the generation in June 2020 was lower than all months of 2019 except the annual low in April.
Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 257TWh in 12 months. The difference between coal and nuclear 12 month rolling generation is now only TWh. Nuclear generation has now exceeded coal generation for 7 months in a row. With continuing capacity reductions, the current trend has annual coal generation being lower than nuclear generation from July 2020.
Coal generation capacity factors recovered but remain low.
June capacity factors have normally been among the higher months for coal, but were 41.4% compared to an exceptional low of 47.0% in 2019 and 58.0% in 2018. The marginalization of coal generation continues.
Coal:
Capacity (MW):
| Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month | 224,525.1 | -965.5 | 223,559.6 | -0.43% |
| YTD | 229,241.4 | -5,681.8 | 223,559.6 | -2.48% |
| Rolling | 235,987.9 | -12,428.3 | 223,559.6 | -5.27% |
| Plan +12mo | -5,759.1 | -1,160.8 | -5,954.4 | -2.66% |
Capacity Factor (MW):
| Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month Capacity | 236,095.2 | -12,535.6 | 223,559.6 | -5.31% |
| Month Factor | 47.0% | -5.6% | 41.4% | -11.91% |
| Rolling 12mo Factor | 51.4% | -10.2% | 41.2% | -19.79% |
Generation (GWh):
| Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
|---|
| 2019 | 78,609 | 470,129 | 1,077,579 | 22.15% | 23.66% | 25.86% |
| 2020 | 65,475 | 324,367 | 820,386 | 18.33% | 16.95% | 20.11% |
| Difference | -13,134 | -145,762 | -257,193 | -3.82% | -6.72% | -5.76% |
Nuclear:
Capacity (MW):
| Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month | 97,102.9 | 18.0 | 97,120.9 | 0.02% |
| YTD | 98,070.2 | -949.3 | 97,120.9 | -0.97% |
| Rolling | 98,873.0 | -1,752.1 | 97,120.9 | -1.77% |
| Plan +12mo | -1,619.3 | 18.0 | -1,619.3 | -1.67% |
Capacity Factor (MW):
| Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|
| Month Capacity | 98,908.9 | -1,788.0 | 97,120.9 | -1.81% |
| Month Factor | 96.6% | -0.5% | 96.1% | -0.52% |
| Rolling 12mo Factor | 92.4% | 0.9% | 93.3% | 1.01% |
Generation (GWh):
| Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
|---|
| 2019 | 68,805 | 400,005 | 804,477 | 19.38% | 20.13% | 19.31% |
| 2020 | 67,205 | 394,865 | 804,269 | 18.81% | 20.63% | 19.71% |
| Difference | -1,600 | -5,140 | -208 | -0.57% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
