Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024

[Solidred]

Just got my VIN PF426, which leads me to believe 12/31 2024 cutoff

OD 9/14 MXP black/white 20” steering wheel so cal

 

[N2B8]

According to Tesla rep on the phone today, they will issue 2023 vins till end of Dec 31st, 2023 and new 2024 earlier Jan will be left over 23 X’s till they phase out the inventory they have made but not delivered.

Thanks. If true that would be significant deviation from Tesla’s past practice.

 

[Hbcubs]

That's interesting, it's the same thing here in SoCal. All sales centers with 3/Y and almost none with S/X

I called, and you can call them direct to set up a demo drive, just not on the website. Which is a little suspicious.

Test drives still available in LA area

 

[SpicyPaneer]

Thanks. If true that would be significant deviation from Tesla’s past practice.

Rep told me they were not expecting such a big move with the X’s as 3 & Y’s . Basically the X is what people are getting after they have had the smaller variants. I’ll wait for 2024 as all the plaids are either demo left at the dealership and they are not budging on the price. Waiting to see the Rivian variant R1S as Tesla superchargers are now available to majority of the non Tesla EV’s (big mistake by Elon) to open up supercharging network. Now is just options people have to look besides Tesla vehicles.

 

[msm859]

According to Tesla rep on the phone today, they will issue 2023 vins till end of Dec 31st, 2023 and new 2024 earlier Jan will be left over 23 X’s till they phase out the inventory they have made but not delivered.

I would give zero weight to what a rep says on the phone. Every other manufacturer on the planet (I believe) comes out with the next year model sometime between January 1 and @ September/October. Tesla does beat to a different drummer and in the past come out later, but why would anyone want to buy a 2023 model in 2024? Knowing for absolute certainty that the 2024 is any day now? We received our 2020 Model X on 12/20/2019. The "safest" answer for a Tesla rep is exactly what they said. I would be very surprised if it turns out to be true.

 

[Saxman]

I would give zero weight to what a rep says on the phone. Every other manufacturer on the planet (I believe) comes out with the next year model sometime between January 1 and @ September/October. Tesla does beat to a different drummer and in the past come out later, but why would anyone want to buy a 2023 model in 2024? Knowing for absolute certainty that the 2024 is any day now? We received our 2020 Model X on 12/20/2019. The "safest" answer for a Tesla rep is exactly what they said. I would be very surprised if it turns out to be true.

@msm859
I took delivery of my 2016 MX on December 22, 2016, which I ordered in mid October. It seems Tesla is reverting to their past practices.

 

[msm859]

@msm859
I took delivery of my 2016 MX on December 22, 2016, which I ordered in mid October. It seems Tesla is reverting to their past practices.

You may be right, but that is still different than buying a 2023 in 2024 or a 2016 in 2017. I had ordered mine in October as well. Crazy is I have special ordered at least 8 new cars in my life - there was never a question of what model year I would be getting.

 

[Saxman]

You may be right, but that is still different than buying a 2023 in 2024 or a 2016 in 2017. I had ordered mine in October as well. Crazy is I have special ordered at least 8 new cars in my life - there was never a question of what model year I would be getting.

I definitely agree with you about that.

 

[henderrj]

Thanks. If true that would be significant deviation from Tesla’s past practice.

For the first, at least, five years of Tesla's existence they changed model years with the calendar year. In fact I think it was only maybe 3 years or 4 that they followed the normal practice of auto manufacturers and released the next model year before January 1st. My December 2014 build model s, was still called a 2014 model year, as an example.

 

[N2B8]

For the first, at least, five years of Tesla's existence they changed model years with the calendar year. In fact I think it was only maybe 3 years or 4 that they followed the normal practice of auto manufacturers and released the next model year before January 1st. My December 2014 build model s, was still called a 2014 model year, as an example.

Ok so maybe they’re just going back to their past practice. My parents bought their 2024 CRV in August. Porsche also starts building the new model year in July or something.

 

[Tiger]

Did Model X EMEA prices just drop in some regions (not all)? Must be the CT osborne doing it's job. /s

 

[SpicyPaneer]

Just ordered on Dec 3rd MYLR for my son and it’s a 2023 vin. If you want 2024 vin it will be in Jan 1st, 2024.

 

[Tiger]

Nice competition ramping up:

 

[Tiger]

Just wait:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735219194101166491

 

[MikeChicago]

It's Tesla. No one can predict what the pricing will look like in 2024. I think the price drop on S and X would have already happened this month. It hasn't changed since the last quarter end, so I think they've hit the bottom based on the margins they need. That's just my opinion. The next round of cost savings will likely come as a result of lower cost batteries, redesign, or other cost-saving measures. Thus far we've only seen Tesla reduce its margin to meet sales targets.

If Tesla's gross margins were indeed in the 25% range a year ago, then the reductions we've seen already would have cut deep into those earnings. At this point, I don't see Tesla having to sell their vehicles at a loss, but then again, who knows. It's all speculation.

 

[terranx]

It's Tesla. No one can predict what the pricing will look like in 2024. I think the price drop on S and X would have already happened this month. It hasn't changed since the last quarter end, so I think they've hit the bottom based on the margins they need. That's just my opinion. The next round of cost savings will likely come as a result of lower cost batteries, redesign, or other cost-saving measures. Thus far we've only seen Tesla reduce its margin to meet sales targets.

If Tesla's gross margins were indeed in the 25% range a year ago, then the reductions we've seen already would have cut deep into those earnings. At this point, I don't see Tesla having to sell their vehicles at a loss, but then again, who knows. It's all speculation.

There’s probably still some room to lower the price on the Plaids, but I don’t see Tesla dropping the price on those without also reducing the LR price, and there probably isn’t a ton of margin on the LR models.

At best, I can see them introducing the SR again, perhaps with a truly smaller battery rather than software limited, to reduce that base price further.

 

[JBT66]

There’s probably still some room to lower the price on the Plaids, but I don’t see Tesla dropping the price on those without also reducing the LR price, and there probably isn’t a ton of margin on the LR models.

At best, I can see them introducing the SR again, perhaps with a truly smaller battery rather than software limited, to reduce that base price further.

Considering they increased the Plaid by $5K not that long ago I’d doubt they’ll drop it.

 

[Tiger]

Considering they increased the Plaid by $5K not that long ago I’d doubt they’ll drop it.

They increased it for the sole purpose so that they can later drop it (because they are supply constrained to the end of the year). It will look good as a Q1/2024 discount.

 

[TespaceX]

I’m betting there will be a price drop by at least $2,500 sometime in Q1 2024. There’s nothing else about the S/X that will motivate customers to buy.

 

[Tiger]

I’m betting there will be a price drop by at least $2,500 sometime in Q1 2024. There’s nothing else about the S/X that will motivate customers to buy.

$2,5k won't move mountains in this price class.