Prediction: Tesla 40D will make a comeback

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Why would tesla be going backwards?
Every automaker that had an 80 mile range ev has been increasing that range
For tesla to come out with one in a few years would be laughable.

methinks - everyone missed the gist of this thread.

This isn't going backwards. But Tesla aiming to bring the price to < 60K so you get all the rebates, and then doing OTA updates to spend more, so at the end you have the same car Tesla wanted you to have. Plus, people feeling ok not paying for a huge battery because it will be unnecessary.

Honestly, the 100D for instance, I'm happy for the folks who got one, but really, 99% people don't NEED that range.

 

[dandelot]

methinks - everyone missed the gist of this thread.
Honestly, the 100D for instance, I'm happy for the folks who got one, but really, 99% people don't NEED that range.

Went from S 85 to S 100D last month. Range anxiety was a learned non-issue with S85.
Curiously with the 100D it completely vanished. I was surprised that it vanished.
Everyday charge is 300Mi instead of 240Mi. Why that makes such an emotional
difference to me ... is a mystery. Anyway, I already love the 100D (that it's
so much quieter than the 85 is a big bonus).

 

[AMPd]

methinks - everyone missed the gist of this thread.

This isn't going backwards. But Tesla aiming to bring the price to < 60K so you get all the rebates, and then doing OTA updates to spend more, so at the end you have the same car Tesla wanted you to have. Plus, people feeling ok not paying for a huge battery because it will be unnecessary.

Honestly, the 100D for instance, I'm happy for the folks who got one, but really, 99% people don't NEED that range.

I still don't get it

If they're going to spend the rebate savings on a battery upgrade then why not just purchase the bigger battery when buying the car

This whole OTA battery upgrade experiment was a failure
Tesla was probably giving away too many free batteries, hence the discontinuation of the 60 aka 75 and the lower price to unlock the 75

 

[BluestarE3]

Honestly, the 100D for instance, I'm happy for the folks who got one, but really, 99% people don't NEED that range.

But isn't that the argument made for years that most people don't need more than a 60-80 mile range car? It never gained traction because people had "range anxiety" when faced with those numbers. It wasn't until Tesla came out with 200+ mile cars that an EV finally attracted buyers beyond the core EV enthusiasts. There's a big difference between what you really need and what you think you need.

 

[xyeahtony]

Tesla isn't going to offer something crap just for the sake of cost savings to gain bigger market share. That's not Elon Musk's vision.

 

[MikeC]

Elon described the 40 as a "hobbled horse" from a performance perspective because of the smaller battery.

 

[McRat]

Tesla Motors has yet to deal with the middle class. Most of the EV world uses primarily cheap 80-120 mile EVs.
They are not sexy but they do get the job done.

I do not believe Tesla will target this market. Tesla enthusiasts believe $35k is dirt cheap. This is not where where world is at today.

The 40 is not coming back.

 

[twonius]

Probably not on the S.
But perhaps on the 3 if they need to keep volume up to bridge to the model Y, assuming it'll be delayed by the periscope for the submarine feature or some such nonsense.

40kwh would be plenty in Europe in a smaller car like that, especially as charger density improves. There is a subtle genius to these software limited cars. Whenever Tesla needs to boost volume they can just add some code and start selling a lower level model, which they can later charge for an upgrade.

An ICE maker cant very well start pulling out the 6 cylinders and swapping them for 4s. So instead they throw cash on the hood in incentives and devalue the brand.

 

[MostlyStock]

I think the only thing Tesla might do is make a Model S/X using the small Model 3 battery (55 kWh). With the lower weight the range should be about the same as the software limited 60 kWh.

 

[Dwdnjck]

The supercharger network is huge asset and advantage for Tesla. All cars will be designed to take advantage of this, rapidly improving, asset. This works for cars with around 200 miles of rated range.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

If they're going to spend the rebate savings on a battery upgrade then why not just purchase the bigger battery when buying the car

Ok look at Maryland. Their EV rebates say "If the car costs more than 60K - you can't get any rebates".

So, wouldn't it be nice, if I can pay $59K for a 40D.
Get the rebate.
Then pay more and OTA turn my 40D into a 75D?

Germany has similar regulations, and many are capping rebates to price.

 

[whitex]

A car with 100-120mile range falls into a second/commuter car category. Even though you don't drive it that much every day, for that 1 day a week, or 1 day a month, or even one day every 2 months, you're going to have to have a longer range car. Can it be done? Absolutely, however it makes the value of such commuter much car less, since it requires you to keep a second, longer range car too. And yes, I know you can Uber the 200 miles you need on that 1 day, or rent a car, but for most people that is too much hassle.

 

[whitex]

Ok look at Maryland. Their EV rebates say "If the car costs more than 60K - you can't get any rebates".

So, wouldn't it be nice, if I can pay $59K for a 40D.
Get the rebate.
Then pay more and OTA turn my 40D into a 75D?

Germany has similar regulations, and many are capping rebates to price.

Range OTA was pretty much a failure with 60=>75, what makes you think it would work here? If you are suggesting this is just a way to qualify for a rebate, then why not make a 15D with 50 mile range - that will ensure almost everyone will buy the upgrade, you can still charge $59K for 15D and everyone will understand that they pretty much have to upgrade after they get their rebate.

 

[MP3Mike]

will Tesla bring back the 40KwH battery

They never sold a 40 kWh battery so they can't bring it back. When they were designing the Model S 40 they found out that a 40 kWh battery caused the car to feel sluggish. And on top of it not that many people ordered it so they software limited a 60 kWh battery for the few people that ordered one before they discontinued the option. (I think I heard that they only made ~400 Model S 40s.)

Now that the smallest Model S/X battery they make is a 75 kWh battery there is no way they would software limit it to 40 kWh and give away all those extra cells.

And I can't imagine them making a Model 3 with that small of a battery either. It just isn't practical other than as a city errand car, and Tesla doesn't make those. (You want one of those buy a cheap Leaf.)

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Range OTA was pretty much a failure with 60=>75, what makes you think it would work here?

.. because these low price limits for rebates were not in effect until now. But if you look at regulations being enacted, everyone is coming up with them.

 

[MP3Mike]

.. because these low price limits for rebates were not in effect until now. But if you look at regulations being enacted, everyone is coming up with them.

If they need to lower the base MSRP to qualify for a rebate they would just do like they did in Germany and pull out all of the features that everyone wants/needs and make them an option package that is way too expensive for what it actually is.

But in reality they don't need to do that because the Model 3 will start at $35k and should qualify for all the rebates. (Well at least until they run out of the $7500 federal rebate by early next year and it gets phased out over the next few quarters.)

They won't need to chase rebates, they already have customers chasing after them...

 

[MP3Mike]

Prediction: Tesla 40D will make a comeback

Also, there was never a 40D. The only 40 was a Model S 40, and that was RWD only.

 

[FlatSix911]

Because they must keep the entry point low. Lot of tax rebates (germany, maryland, others) are putting a price cap on the eligibility for rebates.

It makes a lot of sense for Tesla to offer a 40kwh battery out of the gate for a price under $60K, and allow to upgrade later (battery replacement or OTA).

Also, the 40kwh doesn't HAVE to be a Model S.
Imagine a $20K Model 3 with a 20kwh battery that you could unlock to 40kwh.

This is the correct answer ...

 

[MP3Mike]

@Sir Guacamolaf The main issue is that Tesla is going to be battery cell limited in how many cars they can sell. Let's say the base Model 3 is going to have a 60 kWh battery. That would mean that for every 3) Model 3 40s you sell you wasted enough cells to sell another Model 3 60. So it costs Tesla a minimum of $11,666 per Model 3 40 sold.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

This is the correct answer ...

View attachment 224344

Dude if democracy picked the right answer, we'd have different choices for presidents.