Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[Troy]

• I predict that before the end of this year, Elon is going to say something along the lines of, "Even though the base Model 3 has a lower official range number than the Bolt, it has more real world range at highway speeds because of better aerodynamic efficiency."

I've added this to the predictions spreadsheet. This prediction is based on my calculation that the Model 3 55 with 218 mi EPA rated range would have more range than the Bolt with 238 mi EPA range at any speed over 54 mph. EPA tests are performed at 32.1 mph average speed. Therefore the Bolt appears to have more range than the Model 3 55 but that's only at low-speed.

 

[neroden]

Aaah, you may be right, but I suspect that Tesla will go ahead and put 61 kwh of batteries in the base model just to beat the Bolt range.

 

[wdolson]

Aaah, you may be right, but I suspect that Tesla will go ahead and put 61 kwh of batteries in the base model just to beat the Bolt range.

Range of an EV isn't just a factor of battery size. The aerodynamics and weight play a large role. The Bolt is lighter than the Model 3 because it's a smaller car, but the Model 3 is more aerodynamic. At lower speeds and in town ratings, weight plays more of a role, at highway speeds aerodynamics plays more of a role.

A lot of comparisons are already drawn between the Bolt and the Model 3, but that's only because of the form of power. They really belong in different vehicle classes. The Bolt is about the size of a Ford Fiesta and the Model 3 is going to be about the size of a Ford Fusion. In the gasoline world there aren't many people who cross shop between the competitors of the Fiesta and the Fusion.

 

[neroden]

I'm relying on Musk's "Oh ye of little faith" tweet on the more-range-than-Bolt question.

I can't make the spreadsheet work (Google Docs doesn't like my browser?!?) so if someone would care to add my prediction "Base Model 3 will have equal or higher EPA rated range than Chevy Bolt", please do.

 

[Troy]

@neroden, no problem. I have added it for you:
Tesla Predictions

 

[AudubonB]

I Predict -

Tesla Energy's solar roof tiles will be agglomerated into panels comprising rows of three, or perhaps four, tiles, extending lengthwise on the order of four to seven feet.
Each tile will - as others have surmised - have its own micro inverter, but it is that whole panel that will be wired in analogous fashion to today's conventional PV panels. This panel will be able to be tilted up along its uphill edge for maintenance purposes; through its micro inverter an individual faulty tile will already have alerted the tech that it, in position B-19, is the bad one, allowing for a super-quick and simple replacement.

 

[AudubonB]

I predict -

Tesla's heavy truck development, "Semi" in Mr Musk's tweet, will be tied hand-in-glove with a renascent battery swap program.

Both long-haul trucks and a city fleet - whether short-haul goods, garbage trucks, concrete mixers, snow plows or the like - are the ideal candidates for bypassing time-consuming supercharging for the benefits of a quick battery swap.

Manifold efficiencies:

• goods transfer hubs - ideal.
• tailoring of battery pack size & quantity as f(distance x load)

oops - that's just two. More to come for sure.

 

[DaveT]

I predict Tesla will deliver less than 40k Model 3s in 2017.

 

[DaveT]

I predict Tesla will not announce 4 gigafactory locations this year (2017).

 

[MitchJi]

I predict Tesla will not announce 4 gigafactory locations this year (2017).

Why not at least announce four locations?

My prediction is that they will not only announce the 3 or 4 locations, but also announce the plans for funding them..

 

[MitchJi]

I predict -

Tesla's heavy truck development, "Semi" in Mr Musk's tweet, will be tied hand-in-glove with a renascent battery swap program.

Both long-haul trucks and a city fleet - whether short-haul goods, garbage trucks, concrete mixers, snow plows or the like - are the ideal candidates for bypassing time-consuming supercharging for the benefits of a quick battery swap.

Manifold efficiencies:

• goods transfer hubs - ideal.
• tailoring of battery pack size & quantity as f(distance x load)

oops - that's just two. More to come for sure.

I predict that they will use multiple powerpacks for the semi battery packs. Truckers will be able to swap them at supercharging stations.

I predict Tesla will deliver less than 40k Model 3s in 2017.

My prediction is over 70k,

 

[DaveT]

Why not at least announce four locations?

My prediction is that they will not only announce the 3 or 4 locations, but also announce the plans for funding them..

I think most people underestimate what it takes to announce a gigafactory location. Tremendous amount of negotiation, environmental studies, feasibility studies, extensive talks with government over incentives, lots of legal consultation, lots of contracts, etc. It'll be a headache to back out of a location after it's announced. Thus, they need to get it right before announcing... unless they are just announcing they are taking bids in an area. Announcing even two gigafactories in next 7.5 months would be tremendous. Ambitiously they might be able to announce three. Four locations in next 7.5 months is maybe Elon's aspirational goal but as we know his aspirational timelines don't usually work out in time... though they eventually get realized. Also I don't see any practical benefit to announcing a fourth gigafactory... just more ammo for people to be critical of Tesla's capital needs.

 

[MitchJi]

I think most people underestimate what it takes to announce a gigafactory location. Tremendous amount of negotiation, environmental studies, feasibility studies, extensive talks with government over incentives, lots of legal consultation, lots of contracts, etc. It'll be a headache to back out of a location after it's announced. Thus, they need to get it right before announcing... unless they are just announcing they are taking bids in an area. Announcing even two gigafactories in next 7.5 months would be tremendous. Ambitiously they might be able to announce three. Four locations in next 7.5 months is maybe Elon's aspirational goal but as we know his aspirational timelines don't usually work out in time... though they eventually get realized. Also I don't see any practical benefit to announcing a fourth gigafactory... just more ammo for people to be critical of Tesla's capital needs.

I believe it's it's not going to be that difficult for China and India(pollution), plus a location in Europe and the USA (green jobs). We'll see.

 

[neroden]

I believe it's it's not going to be that difficult for China and India(pollution), plus a location in Europe and the USA (green jobs). We'll see.

China / India / Europe / US East just makes a lot of sense. That said, I suspect the *announcement* will precede the actual *construction* by a really long time, and the announcement may literally just be a country or region (not an actual site).

 

[GoTslaGo]

I predict that the model S and X will continue to have free supercharging for life after the Model 3 is released. The Model 3 will likely have limited charging upon release. I will have to enter it into the prediction worksheet later...

 

[T3slaTulips]

I predict

1. the first batch of employee configurations will open no later than June 3, 2017 (and we'll see options pricing the same day)
2. base Model 3 range will be 239-244 miles EPA.
3. Q2 Deliveries of S/X will be from 21,000-22,000 units.
4. [And for a bolder one] 0-60 Performance of Model 3 [P-edition] will be improved via software update after run rate is >300k/annual and margin is over 19%.

 

[Reciprocity]

Wow, this is my kind of thread. I called free supercharging would be making a come back about a month ago and I was mocked and ridiculed. If you where one of the people to disagree with me, then you owe me a like or at least an informative. As we know this happened today:

Prediction: Free supercharging to be brought back!

Am I doing this right?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Wow, this is my kind of thread. I called free supercharging would be making a come back about a month ago and I was mocked and ridiculed. If you where one of the people to disagree with me, then you owe me a like or at least an informative. As we know this happened today:

Prediction: Free supercharging to be brought back!

Am I doing this right?

I didn't doubt you (didn't see the thread actually), but props to you for calling it.

 

[AudubonB]

Doesn't count..........

Because..........

you didn't post it in the Prediction thread!

But you'll know for next time. Otherwise, very nicely played (well, except for noodling on the timing of it all ).

 

[T3slaTulips]

Refining my earlier prediction slightly to add precision.

1st batch of employee configurations of Model 3 will open Friday, June 2 between 1pm and 2pm PDT while Franz is doing the Q&A.