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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

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If they've got the Gigafactory up to high enough capacity, they might switch to Gigafactory cells and announce a price reduction while increasing profit margin. I know they said they have "no plans" to do so in the short term, but... we all know they're doing it eventually...

Not just battery cells sourced from the GF, but once the Model 3 is in production their costs for most of the raw materials for all their cars will be going down. Where anything is shared between the S/X and the Model 3, their prices will go down because they will now be buying in 10X the volume. There may be some sub-assemblies bought from third parties that are shared, but what will be clearly shared are basic things like sheet aluminum, fasteners, and wire.

I would not be surprised if they are looking at every part of the S/X right now to see if changes could be made to share parts with the Model 3. Most of those are parts that would never be seen by the consumer, but every sub-assembly that could be shared with the Model 3 is a cost saving for the Models S and X.

The Model S and X also have very high profit margins. They could cut into those a little and turn a greater profit per car line. The pent up demand for the Models S and X are huge and one of their greatest criticism is they aren't luxurious enough to justify the price tag of a premium European sedan, though they are on par with less expensive luxury cars in the $60-$80K range. Between cost savings switching cell sourcing to Nevada, economizing parts with the Model 3, and shaving a little off the margin (about $5K), they might be able to lower the price of the car $10K-$20K. When they reintroduced the Model S 60, sales of the entry level car went up as those who wanted a Model S, but couldn't quite afford one jumped on board. If the prices across the board were $20K lower, the cars would be affordable to a larger segment of the population and they would sell more, especially as news of the Model 3 gets out there and there are a lot of people who get excited about it but don't want to wait a year and have the income to afford a car costing around $60K.

Right now Tesla needs to milk as much profit as possible out of the S/X line to support the push to get the Model 3 out the door. Once the Model 3 is selling, it will turn from an expense to an income source and they can afford to cut the margin on the S/X a little and still make money.
 
Moderator Input:
All please try your utmost to keep this thread as strictly focused on specific predictions as possible; there are a few other threads, best sources tell me, where parsing ideas is encouraged.

Thank you.
 
Prediction Update

On 26 December (and 19 Jan) I posted this:

I predict -

The Tesla fleet odometer will reach 8.5 billion miles by 31 Dec. 2017.

For reference, as I type this on 26 Dec 2016, the fleet # is at 3,509,558,598 miles. And counting. For this who don't know it, tracker is here: The Electric Road Trip

On edit Jan. 19: the new link to the fleet data is:Electric Road Trip. 3.6519bn at the moment.


According to Electrek's piece this morning (13 July), Tesla has reported the fleet mileage has surpassed 5 billion miles:Tesla’s global fleet reaches over 5 billion electric miles driven ahead of Model 3 launch. It is looking as though my 8.5bn easily will be reached.

C'mon, Fleet Learning!
 
Hi, everybody. Inspired by @Crowded Mind's excellent idea for this thread, I decided to start a Tesla predictions competition. Currently, there are 3 polls but more will be added. I welcome suggestions for other polls. You can post those in the following thread to keep things organized. Links to the 3 current polls and an introduction to the competition can be found in the opening message here:

Tesla Predictions Competition
 
Hi, everybody. In March I said this (see bold section):

In addition, I predict that the 75 kWh S and X will be discontinued too. This prediction is a little more interesting than the other two because I don't think even Tesla knows they will discontinue the 75 kWh S and X because they are underestimating people's desire for more range. The S75D has 259 miles rated range. The X75D has 237. The Model 3 75D is expected to have over 300 based on my calculation. Most people won't pay more for less range. 75 kWh S and X sales will drop close to zero after the Model 3 release. The S75/75D will be gone by mid-2018. X75D might survive until the end of 2018.

Today, Electrek published this article: Tesla to discontinue cheapest version of Model S (75 RWD) ahead of Model 3 launch. I feel good about the rest of the prediction coming through as well.
 
I predict that on the conference call Elon or Deepak will say that they will self fund for the near future. No more cap raises needed. Based on the higher option prices and higher expected ASP of model 3 they will be generating enough cash to self fund through Model Y.

Second prediction is any new Gigafactories in the US or Europe will be financed by the state much like the state of New York financed the Solar City solar panel factory (gigafactory 2) and lease it to Tesla for a token payment as long as they provide x number of jobs.
 
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Second prediction is any new Gigafactories in the US or Europe will be financed by the state much like the state of New York financed the Solar City solar panel factory (gigafactory 2) and lease it to Tesla for a token payment as long as they provide x number of jobs.
I completely concur. I watched Elons keynote presentation to National Govenors Association (30 USA governors hungry, desperate for high tech jobs)
Elon employs around 40,000 people in very high tech jobs, Tesla, SpaceX, Tesla Energy, etc. Casually mentions "oh I'm going to be building 3 more gigafactories in the US in the near future, (ie we are deciding now)(thousands of jobs)(elections)(voters elect folks who get them jobs) almost as a "throw away comment" near the end of his talk (which of you 30 governors want 1 of 3 factories) and scampers out of the room at end of talk, hosted by Sandoval who is home to GF1.
They also reran the talk on CSpan radio in Washington, DC at least once
My prediction is somewhere near West Virginia/Kentucky/Ohio borders, probably announced spring of 2018
 
Hi. These predictions turned out to be correct:

  • The first Model 3 deliveries (to Tesla insiders, not to regular customers) will start by 30th Sep 2017.

This looks easy but I made that prediction in August 2016 in this thread here. At the time things were unclear. Elon was describing the July 1st supplier deadline as the "impossible deadline".

  • The base model of Model 3 will have less range than the Chevy Bolt's 238 miles EPA rated range.
  • The base model of Model 3 will have between 216-226 miles EPA rated range.

Similar to my "no HUD" prediction, these two predictions contradicted the popular belief. There was a poll here about Bolt and 68% voted "yes, base version will beat Bolt". I think sometimes people predict the things they want to see happen. It's wishful thinking.

@Crowded Mind, the following prediction I made could be wrong but shall we wait until we find out the EPA rated range number? This number will be shown on window stickers (we haven't seen any yet), or on the EPA website here (they are always a little late to add it) or on Tesla website.

Tesla has not released any EPA rated range or estimated EPA rated range for the Model 3 except the 220 miles number. The 310 miles does not say EPA rated range next to it on this page or on any page. It could be the range at 65 mph. For example, when Tesla released the P85D, instead of EPA rated range, they displayed 65 mph range numbers which were higher than EPA rated range numbers released later. Here is a screenshot.

  • The longest-range version of the Model 3 will have between 290-304 miles EPA rated range.

Also, I unmarked my 75 kWh prediction. Let's wait until the actual number is released.
 
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Hi. These predictions turned out to be correct:



This looks easy but I made that prediction in August 2016 in this thread here. At the time things were unclear. Elon was describing the July 1st supplier deadline as the "impossible deadline".



Similar to my "no HUD" prediction, these two predictions contradicted the popular belief. There was a poll here about Bolt and 68% voted "yes, base version will beat Bolt". I think sometimes people predict the things they want to see happen. It's wishful thinking.

@Crowded Mind, the following prediction I made could be wrong but shall we wait until we find out the EPA rated range number? This number will be shown on window stickers (we haven't seen any yet), or on the EPA website here (they are always a little late to add it) or on Tesla website.

Tesla has not released any EPA rated range or estimated EPA rated range for the Model 3 except the 220 miles number. The 310 miles does not say EPA rated range next to it on this page or on any page. It could be the range at 65 mph. For example, when Tesla released the P85D, instead of EPA rated range, they displayed 65 mph range numbers which were higher than EPA rated range numbers released later. Here is a screenshot.



Also, I unmarked my 75 kWh prediction. Let's wait until the actual number is released.

I could see EPA range being higher (though I don't expect it), but would be shocked if EPA range came in lower than 220/310. That would be a PR nightmare for Tesla. Might as well wait and see on your predictions though.