President of Chevron on Charlie Rose 5/17/16

[Bangor Bob]

Second half of the show. The man is absolutely clueless/dismissive about the wave of destruction about to wash over his business.

It'll be here Charlie Rose videos in a couple days.

I gotta turn it off. He's making me angry.

By the by... Why isn't "Certified conflict-free oil" a thing?

 

[Bangor Bob]

Video of interview with John Watson, Chairman and CEO of Chevron, is now on the Charlie Rose site, here:

John Watson - Charlie Rose

He's stuck in 2008 (or earlier), in many respects. He certainly isn't acknowledging in any way that the Paris climate agreement will have impacts on their business. Perhaps part of the performance is reassuring investors...

 

[electracity]

Bloomberg New Energy Finance has started to look at the demand destruction EVs will have on oil. They forecast cost parity of EV with ICE as early as 2022. In this time period EVs should remove demand of about 2m barrels. This is about the quantity fracking added to cause the current oil crash .

They think this is the point that EV will put oil prices in permanent decline. It doesn't matter what Watson thinks about the future. Notice how guys like him have shifted from climate denial to "think about the poor" who need his oil to lift themselves out of poverty.

 

[rays427]

So what do you think of the EIA 2016 Forecast of future energy consumption? It's at this link.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=2-IEO2016&sourcekey=0

 

[nwdiver]

So what do you think of the EIA 2016 Forecast of future energy consumption? It's at this link.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=2-IEO2016&sourcekey=0

The EIA is notoriously and often hilariously wrong... go back and look at some of their previous predictions...

 

[S'toon]

Second half of the show. The man is absolutely clueless/dismissive about the wave of destruction about to wash over his business.

It'll be here Charlie Rose videos in a couple days.

I gotta turn it off. He's making me angry.

By the by... Why isn't "Certified conflict-free oil" a thing?

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers tried to coin the phrase "ethical oil" for Canadian tar sands oil.

 

[rays427]

The EIA is notoriously and often hilariously wrong... go back and look at some of their previous predictions...

OK, I went back and looked at several previous forecasts of oil consumption and they tended to under predict future demand rather than under predict.

 

[jeffhre]

Notice how guys like him have shifted from climate denial to "think about the poor" who need his oil to lift themselves out of poverty.

That is Bjorn Lomborg's current line. They ask you to - forget about the fact that the poor are the least able to adapt to climate change - but think instead "about how the poor will be so much better off" - once a lot more and very expensive fossil fuel infrastructure is built, so that they can have monthly bills that they can't afford...

 

[rays427]

It's interesting to note that the country that has been one of the most aggressive at installing renewable energy has one of the highest costs for electricity. Average German cost is 33 cents per Kwh versus 18 cents in the US. AT 33 cents per Kwh my Tesla would be about the equivalent of 25 MPG with a price of $2.72 per gallon.

 

[nwdiver]

OK, I went back and looked at several previous forecasts of oil consumption and they tended to under predict future demand rather than under predict.

? Where did you look? By their own analysis they badly OVER-predict fossil fuel consumption and hilariously under predict renewable growth. Highlights are predicting ~2GW of Solar by 2016 in 2008 (there's >20GW today) and predicting ~1% of NEW cars will be electric in 2040.... REALLY? We'll blow past that in ~2020....



Something is terribly broken at the EIA...

 

[rays427]

View attachment 177565

? Where did you look? By their own analysis they badly OVER-predict fossil fuel consumption and hilariously under predict renewable growth. Highlights are predicting ~2GW of Solar by 2016 in 2008 (there's >20GW today) and predicting ~1% of NEW cars will be electric in 2040.... REALLY? We'll blow past that in ~2020....



Something is terribly broken at the EIA...

I screwed up on the conversion factors. So in 2008 the EIA predicted daily production would be about 95 Million barrels per day and the actual was around 93. I assume my other checks were off by similar numbers. I don't see that as badly over predicted but your right they did over predict. I agree that total installed capacity and production for wind and solar has gone up much faster than projected by EIA. However, the graphs you show are installed capacity not actual production which is much lower. The average yearly production increase for wind and solar from 2005 through 2014 per EIA has averaged about 20 GW per year which as you stated is much higher than they predicted. From 2013 to 2014 it increased 23.236 GW.

 

[nwdiver]

I screwed up on the conversion factors. So in 2008 the EIA predicted daily production would be about 95 Million barrels per day and the actual was around 93.

Oil consumption has so far been one of the more stable commodities on the demand side but that's changing rapidly and just like with coal, solar and wind the EIA has failed miserably to keep up. They appear to lack the ability to think more than 1 move ahead... they consistently make long term projections without anticipating exponential growth. Many of their predictions are so obviously wrong... even without the benefit of hindsight... that it's hard to believe they don't have an agenda.

If you want a good laugh... or cry at how bad the EIA is... here is their AEO from 1996...

Some of my 'favs'...

Pg 54- ZERO renewable growth in the next 24 years.... REALLY?!

Pg 46- Only 24% of alternative fueled vehicles will be electric... ~300k EVs by 2020. We hit that last year. Pretty sure the US will have >3M by 2020. Which is about as good as EIA prediction get... off by an order of magnitude.

In terms of making predictions... the EIA is really, really.... REALLY bad at its job.

What would happen if the EIA was the Pentagon for a day....

 

[marcon]

It's interesting to note that the country that has been one of the most aggressive at installing renewable energy has one of the highest costs for electricity. Average German cost is 33 cents per Kwh versus 18 cents in the US. AT 33 cents per Kwh my Tesla would be about the equivalent of 25 MPG with a price of $2.72 per gallon.

Traditionally higher electricity prices, early adopter penalty and shifting of energy taxes from heavy industry to consumers.

 

[RichardC]

We can all thank German consumers for helping to drive the demand for solar to the levels required to achieve critical mass that has led to the dramatic decreases in price that the rest of us now enjoy. In the same way that early adopters of Teslas have paved the way to the Model 3 and the EV revolution that is now underway. This is a key, but often underappreciated, role of public policy.

 

[SpiceWare]

It's interesting to note that the country that has been one of the most aggressive at installing renewable energy has one of the highest costs for electricity. Average German cost is 33 cents per Kwh versus 18 cents in the US. AT 33 cents per Kwh my Tesla would be about the equivalent of 25 MPG with a price of $2.72 per gallon.

Don't forget European countries charge a lot in taxes on energy. Petrol prices in Germany, 23-May-2016 shows $1.47 per liter, or $5.56 per gallon.

In the US, without those extra taxes, renewables are quite a bit less. I'm on a 100% wind power plan and my last bill of $139.79 for 1176 Kwh works out to 11.89 cents per Kwh.

 

[Brando]

IF all transportation was electric starting this year, it would still take about 20 years to replace between 1-2 billion ICE powered vehicles.
The decline of oil probably about 40 years. Only about 2% of fleet is sold new each year. Those that can afford it will switch ASAP - just a matter of economics - it saves money, is cheaper.

Predicting, especially the future, is not easy.
I just hope we can avoid another reactor melt down.

 

[Saghost]

IF all transportation was electric starting this year, it would still take about 20 years to replace between 1-2 billion ICE powered vehicles.
The decline of oil probably about 40 years. Only about 2% of fleet is sold new each year. Those that can afford it will switch ASAP - just a matter of economics - it saves money, is cheaper.

Predicting, especially the future, is not easy.
I just hope we can avoid another reactor melt down.

The US sells about 17 million new cars every year, and has a ~200 million car fleet - implying an average age of 12 years at retirement and 12 years to turn the majority of the fleet *if* it could go electric today.

It can't, of course - there's nowhere near enough battery production, for one thing.

 

[dhrivnak]

It's interesting to note that the country that has been one of the most aggressive at installing renewable energy has one of the highest costs for electricity. Average German cost is 33 cents per Kwh versus 18 cents in the US. AT 33 cents per Kwh my Tesla would be about the equivalent of 25 MPG with a price of $2.72 per gallon.

Their natural gas comes from Russia and is nearly 3x the cost of our fracked gas. Most of their coal is lignite or brown coal that has about half the BTU content per ton as our Appalachia coal. There are good reasons they pushed into renewables. They have few other viable options.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Germany pays 33 cents today for a kWh, but they'll fall pretty quickly as they ramp up storage over the next 5 years.

Keep in mind that half the residential solar in DE is sold with battery storage. They protect industrial energy buyers from all these costs AND let solar+battery users integrate into the grid for free, so for now a shrinking residential customer base is carry the entire cost load, but that should change quickly. After all....there's no marginal cost to renewables.

Wholesale prices are already 1/2 what they used to be, retail will follow.

 

[Brando]

The US sells about 17 million new cars every year, and has a ~200 million car fleet - implying an average age of 12 years at retirement and 12 years to turn the majority of the fleet *if* it could go electric today.

It can't, of course - there's nowhere near enough battery production, for one thing.

As of 2015

263.6 million (then add in trucks and buses and planes and ... well see the last URL or link at the bottom)
side note: China makes about 200,000,000 eBikes - not cars, bikes.

The United States is home to the second largest passenger vehicle market of any country in the world, second now to China. Overall, there were an estimated 263.6 million registered passenger vehicles in the United States in 2015. This number, along with the average age of vehicles, has increased steadily since 1960.
Passenger vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia
Passenger vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia

and for more details than you can absorb
Table 1-11: Number of U.S. Aircraft, Vehicles, Vessels, and Other Conveyances | Bureau of Transportation Statistics