Curious... Is the likelihood of the 12V battery failing a function of how much you drive? For example, if you drive your car only 15k miles total over 4 years is the 12V battery less likely to fail than if you drive the car 80k miles over 4 years?
I'm at the extreme end I guess as someone who has only managed to do less than 1500 miles a year in my car. Needless to say my car can be parked up for several days, asleep, without turning a wheel.
In recent months the car would wake up every 24 or 48 hours (to the minute) and then stay awake for 1-3 hours. When I queried this behaviour with Tesla they confirmed the car was waking up and then "maintaining the low voltage battery". I had noticed - via TeslaMate - that this behaviour was becoming more frequent, it used to be the case that the car would wake up every few days, then it would become every 48 hours, then every 24 hours, etc. I guess the colder winter months finished it off.
As said above if you drive the car it charges the battery as you're driving much like an alternator in an ICE does. If you're not driving, then the car will wake up once it detects the battery has dropped to a certain level. In simplistic terms - a car that isn't driven much will end up recharging the 12v from a lower voltage than one that is driven every day, or every other day, which means the duty cycle is greater.
I have no idea how this all works with the lithium battery in newer cars though.