Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[mbcaffe]

Anyone know where were floods recently? In what countries?

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Ok, probably he was referring either to Mainland China or to flood in Philippines.

A lot of areas in Midwest were flooded recently, I think a few weeks ago

 

[JohnEC]

Anyone know where were floods recently? In what countries?

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Ok, probably he was referring either to Mainland China or to flood in Philippines.

Of course, a "flood" doesn't have to be a natural thing. It could have been just a broken pipe in a factory.

 

[Zzzz...]

A lot of areas in Midwest were flooded recently, I think a few weeks ago

Could be.

Of course, a "flood" doesn't have to be a natural thing. It could have been just a broken pipe in a factory.

Provided the context, Musk mention floods, fires, hurricanes and earthquakes, and then claimed that they "went through just such a crisis" with their supplier factory being flooded... Most likely he was referring to "a natural thing".

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BTW, anyone know where transmissions for Roadsters were produced? I remember seeing video (could be Power Point presentation) where they showed factory, it was in Philippines/Malaysia/Thailand. Somewhere there, but definitely not in China.

On the other hand, that factory could have been operational before Musk become a CEO of TM. And when Musk did became a CEO, he insourced lots of component production. Including ones from Asia, with claims that it helped them to shorten development cycles while still being cost effective solution because engineers do not have to travel abroad that much...

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Ohh, found it: teslamotors.com

"Thailand ESS Factory".
"Tesla Taiwan Manufacturing Plant". This was actually a motor production factory.

 

[vfx]

Anyone know where were floods recently? In what countries?

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Ok, probably he was referring either to Mainland China or to flood in Philippines.

Could have been a water-main burst. A family friend had that happen at his furniture factory.

 

[Lyon]

Anyone have an update on production rate?

 

[ModelS1079]

George B specifically told me a flood in the phillipines held up a part/ parts from a supplier. Elon then referred to this in His recent blog.

 

[DrDave]

Floods/Batching/Suppliers/Shorts are all hurting Tesla production right now.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Anyone have an update on production rate?

I doubt it. In theory the only way we know is from VIN's, but those get assigned before the car is complete, let alone shipped. The only "reliable" information I've come across are actual announcements from Tesla, which tend to happen after the fact.

My model that I refer to for understanding their production shows that they needed to up their production quite a bit from the last update (which was ~100 at the beginning of October). If they built fewer than about 150 last week it becomes difficult for them to finish off the Sigs this month, let alone allowing them to be on pace to ramp up to their planned levels and meet their current goals. Well, that's unless you assume really large increases later in the month which just seem unrealistic to predict.

So I'm going with 150ish last week because I've only seen one person in the forum saying his window was pushed back (by a week) and I think we'd see more issues like that if production was closer to the ~100 cars they did the week before. If they did hit 150 we should start seeing notifications with VIN's in the mid 400's this week. As I've stated elsewhere, this is all supposition based on speculation, and really depends on Tesla actually making progress towards their announced yearly production goals.

In other news, exoticspotter.com has been coming across Tesla's in the wild that aren't necessarily tied to forum members. So at least we know stuff is being delivered in the real world

 

[Brian H]

Floods/Batching/Suppliers/Shorts are all hurting Tesla production right now.

?? How do shorts affect production?

 

[palmer_md]

?? How do shorts affect production?

The safety people send them home to get pants.

 

[Lyon]

The safety people send them home to get pants.

Can you hear the groans?

 

[Jrhodesmd]

I can guarantee they won't finish sigs this month. I'm sig#371 and my window was 10/17-10/31. Initially told a few weeks ago that it would be the beginning of that time period. Now being told if it occurs in this time period it won't be until the end. Been told a VIN was coming any day. Now saying unknown when they might get a VIN. Has me worried as a shareholder about what's going on (or more accurately what's not going on) behind the curtain at Tesla. The delivery experience reps definitely don't know, but feel this is b/c they are being kept in the dark also, not on any deceit on their part.

 

[shokunin]

I sure hope Tesla will finish production of all Sigs in October for US and start the Canadian Sig and USA R & P's by November. They may not all get delivered in October due to logistics, but hopefully they'll be built.

We know that batching is causing some randomized build sequences, but the highest VIN currently published on the delivery spreadsheet is Sig #1299 with VIN #668. If they've already assigned a body with a VIN of 668 and with 3 weeks left to go, I surely hope they'll be able to get the rest of the 1000 USA sigs built.

 

[Sparrow]

From what I have seen although they have delivered a car with a VIN as high as 340 something, they are still delivering cars mainly in the 200s now. The 340 VIN was a factory delivery and just happened this week. So I am assuming that as of early this week no more than 340 Signatures have been made. My car is VIN 510 with a delivery window of 10/12 thru 10/26. Starting with VIN 340 and assuming that about 170 cars will be finished before my 510 is done, I think it will be the end of next week before it is ready for shipping and that is if these parts that were delayed due to the flood aren't slowing it down any longer. Being in Atlanta, shipping might take about a week so if everything went extremely smoothly from now on, I just might hit the end of my window on the 26th, but I am now expecting November delivery just so as to not be disappointed when I don't have it in October.

 

[timdorr]

I sure hope Tesla will finish production of all Sigs in October for US and start the Canadian Sig and USA R & P's by November. They may not all get delivered in October due to logistics, but hopefully they'll be built.

We know that batching is causing some randomized build sequences, but the highest VIN currently published on the delivery spreadsheet is Sig #1299 with VIN #668. If they've already assigned a body with a VIN of 668 and with 3 weeks left to go, I surely hope they'll be able to get the rest of the 1000 USA sigs built.

I am also extremely positive on them completing Sig production this month (though not completing deliveries). The were at 359 cars built twelve days ago. That leaves 700 cars to make this month. If we're looking at 100+150+200+250 per week (for a total of 700), which is actually a *very* conservative ramp, then they'll be able to make it.

But Elon also said they're in the steepest portion of their production ramp-up, so it will probably be even better than that. We should see some R/Ps being started at the end of the month, hence we're seeing a handful getting delivery date ranges.

 

[ibcs]

Hi Sparrow,

I've been watching your delivery thoughts. I'm Vin #513 and I'm outside Dayton, OH. I want you to get your car as soon as possible hoping mine is coming off the line soon afterwards. My delivery window was between 10/11 to 10/27. I was called this week with the two week delay. PM me if you get any new information. I'll keep you informed as well.

 

[Sparrow]

ibcs

I've been watching your car's progress too. With the one day difference in delivery windows and the VINs so close, I thought maybe the truck they had planned would stay North for your delivery and maybe others before turning South for Atlanta and anywhere else it might need to go South from you.

 

[Brian H]

ibcs

I've been watching your car's progress too. With the one day difference in delivery windows and the VINs so close, I thought maybe the truck they had planned would stay North for your delivery and maybe others before turning South for Atlanta and anywhere else it might need to go South from you.

:biggrin:
Jeez! Now we're down to trying to guess truck drivers' drop-off routes! There's something manic about that ...

 

[bmek]

Estimated Cumulative Production and Customer Deliveries through Sunday, October 21

Another week has passed so I thought I’d revisit the production and customer delivery scenario that I posted last week and see how TSLA is tracking.

In that scenario and for the week ended Sunday, October 21, there were to be 628 cumulative vehicles produced with 385 cumulative customer deliveries. For the week ended October 21, vehicles with VINs ranging between 261 to 566 were delivered to customers. The average is 414 and is likely skewed to a lower, not higher number of vehicles delivered, which makes the cumulative customer delivery estimate of 385 appear likely.

Please note that vehicles do not complete all aspects of manufacturing in their VIN sequence and, due to many factors, are certainly not delivered in VIN sequence. Also, there may be several items on the ‘due bill’ that are provided after delivery to the customer.

Based on the reported deliveries and other anecdotal references, it appears that TSLA is on track to complete production of the U.S. Signatures by Sunday, November 11 and have most of those delivered by November 30.

The delivery process, as reported by TSLA, can stretch the time from completing production to customer delivery anywhere from a minimum of 3 days for factory delivery to between 14 and up to 34 days for Florida (East coast) delivery.

Customer delivery locations further from the Fremont factory take a corresponding longer time and, as winter approaches, become increasingly subjective to weather and road conditions.

Conversely, customers have been called for factory pickup and that has occurred within six hours, with several on the weekend. Also of importance is the use of the Superchargers in California that enable factory pickup and then enjoying a drive back to Southern California.

 

[JakeP]

You realize that in a boardroom somewhere in CA, Elon Musk is waving a copy of this graph around, and saying "We run the most expensive manufacturing and customer suite software money can buy, and none of it produces me a graph as effective or accurate as this TMC member BMEK comes up with, using sampling data from TMC members instead of our actual internal figures!!!!"