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Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

AnOutsider

S532 # XS27
Apr 3, 2009
11,957
200
The way that's worded, I guess they made 100 chassis, but I guess still only finished about 80ish cars?
 

Lyon

2016 S P100DL, 2016 X P90D
Dec 26, 2011
2,004
215
Eugene, Oregon
It would appear as though they've entered the steep part of the S-curve? If the current trend (doubling production every week) continues, they'll be at 1600 cars/week in 4 weeks.

This is excellent news.
 

Arnold Panz

Model Sig 304, VIN 542
Apr 13, 2009
1,340
3
Miami, Florida
The way that's worded, I guess they made 100 chassis, but I guess still only finished about 80ish cars?

To clarify, the way I read the tweet was that they made 100 chassis in one week for the first time. They'd better have made way more than 100 of these in total by now! Not sure what the time lag would be from chassis to completed car, but I'd expect that these are for cars further back in the queue, and that they've probably already made a few hundred of these in the aggregate since June, but never 100 in one week.
 

DrDave

Member
Jan 22, 2012
241
0
It would appear as though they've entered the steep part of the S-curve? If the current trend (doubling production every week) continues, they'll be at 1600 cars/week in 4 weeks.

This is excellent news.

Don't think they anticipate 1600/week.
 

DrDave

Member
Jan 22, 2012
241
0
To clarify, the way I read the tweet was that they made 100 chassis in one week for the first time. They'd better have made way more than 100 of these in total by now! Not sure what the time lag would be from chassis to completed car, but I'd expect that these are for cars further back in the queue, and that they've probably already made a few hundred of these in the aggregate since June, but never 100 in one week.

I thought AO meant they completed 80 finished units this week (full assembly).

100 frames in one week working 7 days and 2 shifts works out to about 7-8 frames/shift. Hope the process can be tuned in a little better to do the doubling everyone is talking about in the next week or two.
 

Todd Burch

Voltage makes me tingle.
Nov 3, 2009
7,980
30,395
Smithfield, VA
It would appear as though they've entered the steep part of the S-curve? If the current trend (doubling production every week) continues, they'll be at 1600 cars/week in 4 weeks.

This is excellent news.

That would be an annual rate of 83,000 cars per year. Yeah, I hope Tesla doesn't hit that, or they really WILL be demand limited instead of supply limited....and quickly!
 

Lyon

2016 S P100DL, 2016 X P90D
Dec 26, 2011
2,004
215
Eugene, Oregon
That would be an annual rate of 83,000 cars per year. Yeah, I hope Tesla doesn't hit that, or they really WILL be demand limited instead of supply limited....and quickly!

Oops, yeah, no, that's not going to happen. So they're actually only 3 weeks away from max production rate? 400 per week would give us just over 20,000 per year.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
When I got back into the production queue, I thought "Oh, I won't get my car before 2013."

At *this* rate of ramp-up, I have the horrible realization that I might get it earlier! Now I have to settle all my outstanding questions about the car *fast*, including checking out the seats.

I guess I can always postpone -- for tax reasons it's better for me to get the car in 2013 anyway.

Not a problem I was expecting! :wink:
 

Todd Burch

Voltage makes me tingle.
Nov 3, 2009
7,980
30,395
Smithfield, VA
When I got back into the production queue, I thought "Oh, I won't get my car before 2013."

At *this* rate of ramp-up, I have the horrible realization that I might get it earlier! Now I have to settle all my outstanding questions about the car *fast*, including checking out the seats.

I guess I can always postpone -- for tax reasons it's better for me to get the car in 2013 anyway.

Not a problem I was expecting! :wink:

You will definitely NOT get your car in 2012. The ramp up definitely has an upper limit planned, and if all goes well, then yes--it's possible Tesla will hit their max rate in a few weeks.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
Regarding geographic batching, I just Googled and found that a typical car-carrier truck carries 8-10 cars. So I would expect regional batching of 8-10 at a time; more than that doesn't gain much in the way of economies of scale.

If Tesla gets big they would start shipping by train, which would be suitable for *much* larger batches -- 500 or more at a time -- and the Tesla Factory is rail-connected, but it seems they're not doing that yet (or we would have heard about them activating a loading dock of some sort). If Tesla did this they'd probably set up secondary distribution centers, since very few people live in the right place to get their cars directly off the train.

I assume batching would be larger overseas, where it's all about the ship transport; I doubt Tesla will try to fill an entire ship (those things carry over a thousand cars each, and that's the small ships), but they'll probably try to assemble loads as large as reasonably possible.

- - - Updated - - -

Oops, yeah, no, that's not going to happen. So they're actually only 3 weeks away from max production rate? 400 per week would give us just over 20,000 per year.

That was the announced target for a *single shift* rate of production... and they're hiring a second shift.

So, with the second shift, that's a ramp up to 800 a week, which is just over 40,000 a year.... yeah, I guess I won't see my car in 2012 (whew) but my chassis will probably be going down the line in January, so they'll probably be asking me to configure before the end of the year (eek).
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
From what we know, they're not aiming for 40k a year. *Maybe* 30k, if things go better than planned.

I thought they were aiming for 20K a year!

So what's going on with the night shift? Perhaps it's just optimism bias, and they decided they couldn't hit 20K per year with one shift.
 

Zythryn

Model Y custom Warming Stripes wrap.
Mar 18, 2009
2,173
1,191
Minnesota
Yeah, Tesla should certainly be able to produce 500 vehicle bodies in Q3 (and have a week left for possibly completing them).

The statement in the last stock holder meeting was that the soft target was 500 deliveries. They were very specific about that.
I have not expected them to hit that number for quite some time. I do expect them to hit the 5000 number by the end of the year. The ramp up took just a little to long for this quarter.
However, I am also ecstatic that they put such a premium on quality and I think an extra week or two is well worth it.
 

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