Production rate reveal... and a new announcement?

[AZ Desert Driver]

So - 500 cars per day? There was a critic that said Tesla is OVER automated. Could Tesla make 500 cars with out such automation?
Could they still be cramped, with automation having some fast track segments and a bottle neck of manual resulting the entire line being "only" 500? Whats the word on the-machine-building-the-machine?

 

[jkirkwood001]

I can picture you screaming YOLO as you made the TSLA stock purchase.

Well, I put down 0.6% of my portfolio, so I'm hardly betting the farm. But, yeah, YOLO

 

[AZatul]

Curious of when you guys expect this announcement?

I usually listen to the earnings call but it is about a month after the end of the quarter. So are we going to be waiting till May 1st for this announcement on rate/awd/Sr...if at all?

 

[jkirkwood001]

So - 500 cars per day? There was a critic that said Tesla is OVER automated. Could Tesla make 500 cars with out such automation?
Could they still be cramped, with automation having some fast track segments and a bottle neck of manual resulting the entire line being "only" 500? Whats the word on the-machine-building-the-machine?

That's 3,500 / week. I thought Elon said they could build 5,000 / week without the German automation upgrade?

 

[kengchang]

That's 3,500 / week. I thought Elon said they could build 5,000 / week without the German automation upgrade?

2500 without the automated battery pack line

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

2500 without the automated battery pack line

hmmm- is this equipment in Nevada, making the batteries, or in Fremont putting the pack into the car?

 

[kbM3]

It's not the devotees like us lending Tesla money and buying their bonds. It's dispassionate bankers and institutional investors who wanna make money - promises don't count. If Tesla keeps not making money like they promise they will, lenders will charge more when they need $1B+ to finish Q3 (or they'll stop lending altogether = bankruptcy). That's the real world of operational financing, not us who think Tesla is a really cool company with great intentions.

You realize that Elon himself could easily loan Tesla 1,2,3 or more billions just from Space-X money? How anyone could think Tesla might run out of cash while Model 3 ramp is currently taking off is beyond me!

Don’t you also realize that Tesla is currently paying the suppliers for the parts from the 700 cars they built 6 weeks ago while receiving revenue for the 2000 cars they are building this week?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think they’ll hit about 1500-1700/week for the end of month but as someone else mentioned about a doubt that’s sustainable with their current setup. I think we’re likely to see stocks tank as investors don’t care about AWD announcements at this point, they want to see the company producing enough vehicles to be profitable.

AWD announcement would be relevant in that it should increase margin and reduce deferrals.

 

[erthquake]

AWD announcement would be relevant in that it should increase margin and reduce deferrals.

And they'd start booking a ton of $3500 order deposits.

 

[jkirkwood001]

You realize that Elon himself could easily loan Tesla 1,2,3 or more billions just from Space-X money? How anyone could think Tesla might run out of cash while Model 3 ramp is currently taking off is beyond me!

Don’t you also realize that Tesla is currently paying the suppliers for the parts from the 700 cars they built 6 weeks ago while receiving revenue for the 2000 cars they are building this week?

Interesting idea. Does Elon own Space-X alone? No? I don't think he could lend Tesla that much cash without terms. And Tesla only gets the full payment from buyers prior to delivery. Plus, they've had to pay their suppliers for material by the time they're building the car.

In short, none of these things significantly affect their long-term debt. They have to get north of 5,000 / week to take the heat off. Quickly.

 

[timk225]

I'm sure Elon could arrange for SpaceX to purchase 100 Model 3's in a limited edition "SpaceX option package" for $1 million per car. Move the money around, make those pain in the ass stockholders happy.

 

[buttershrimp]

I'm thinking coast to coast might be a real possibility as they try to get ahead of the news cycle.

Let's hope it doesn't end up being this scenario:

 

[erthquake]

Interesting idea. Does Elon own Space-X alone? No? I don't think he could lend Tesla that much cash without terms. And Tesla only gets the full payment from buyers prior to delivery. Plus, they've had to pay their suppliers for material by the time they're building the car.

In short, none of these things significantly affect their long-term debt. They have to get north of 5,000 / week to take the heat off. Quickly.

You're wrong. Tesla is getting 60-90 day terms on their parts for the Model 3. That means Tesla receives the parts on day 0, they deliver and receive customer payment 3-6 weeks later, and then Tesla still has 2.5-10 weeks to pay for the parts.

SpaceX could buy bonds issued by Tesla and/or Elon could sell more of his SpaceX shares to buy those bonds, if banks and investment firms don't snap up the bonds first.

You should really look more carefully at how Tesla works.

 

[jkirkwood001]

You're wrong. Tesla is getting 60-90 day terms on their parts for the Model 3. That means Tesla receives the parts on day 0, they deliver and receive customer payment 3-6 weeks later, and then Tesla still has 2.5-10 weeks to pay for the parts.

SpaceX could buy bonds issued by Tesla and/or Elon could sell more of his SpaceX shares to buy those bonds, if banks and investment firms don't snap up the bonds first.

You should really look more carefully at how Tesla works.

I looked it up, and you're right about this option. I'm surprised SpaceX could do this. This doesn't directly make Tesla's financial situation better, but you're both right that Tesla has a savior investor option unlike any other. We'll see!

 

[boaterva]

When one accident, mainly because a piece of DOT hardware wasn't replaced, causes the media to spin out of control, it's nuts.

I believe Elon when he says he wish it were a private company. Doesn't anyone have AP software? Does it work perfectly? Does no one else ever die? Maybe we never know when it was in use because <no other brand> defined as AP. sigh...

As for the 'announcing new option', I'm really wary of them slowing down production with another factor in the mix. Unless they can churn out AWD cars as quickly as everything else (yes, I know)....

Three disagrees and no comments. So what’s the problem? You all want more options to slow things down? You think the line can handle more complexity? Or you think the media frenzy over one accident is warranted?

Nice to know what the disagreement is about!

In case it wasn’t clear, what I meant about the accident was that lots of cars have AP functionality and all we hear about is when Tesla have incidents because to the media Tesla is defined as AP. And in this case, the death seems to have been caused by the non-replacement of the crash-cushion.

 

[N5329K]

No clue how many cars Tesla will build and/or ship. But I know that whatever the number, it will be accompanied by something that keeps the dishes spinning. Or tries to.
Plate spinning routine by Henrik Bothe - Create, Discover and Share Awesome GIFs on Gfycat
Robin

 

[FlatSix911]

I'm not worried about the short-term production rate in 1Q18 ... look ahead a few quarters
New Survey Suggests Huge Future Market Share For Tesla

 

[jelloslug]

I can picture you screaming YOLO as you made the TSLA stock purchase.

I just just about to post the same thing.

 

[Jack6591]

Elon is always late — Elon always comes through.

 

[JonathanD]

I looked it up, and you're right about this option. I'm surprised SpaceX could do this. This doesn't directly make Tesla's financial situation better, but you're both right that Tesla has a savior investor option unlike any other. We'll see!

IIRC SpaceX has loaned Tesla money in the past when they had a bunch of cash laying around.