This thread is exactly how I found the TMC forum, so I would say it's a viable idea. I am also uniquely qualified to answer most of these. My wife bought a M3 in 2018 right before we got married, so I was pretty involved in the sight-unseen ordering process.
I've flip-flopped a few times, but I feel like I did more than enough research to be happy with my decision, but it's a long story.
It started when I test drove the PRX-21 Model X in Sunnyvale mid-January. It took a couple of tries to get an appointment, as they called me one weekend to tell me there were no Model X's available...which seemed odd. The next week I was able to confirm a time and started playing with the configurator prior to my visit. I kept noticing the delivery dates were all 8 to 12 weeks away, and after hearing rumors of the refresh, I pressed the sales person. She was nice enough to engage my questions and basically confirmed everything I was asking about. At that point she was forecasting a late March delivery if I told them I would take it right away. I took the drive and she told me to put in my deposit, but to wait until February 1st to complete the purchase. I completed the application in the Tesla showroom and started this journey.
Sure enough, the announcement was made at the end of January (27th, I think) and she emailed me to offer the $2k discount on the new pricing, or to look at the existing inventory - which was virtually nothing, here in Nor Cal - before placing my order. Now that I look back, there were some great deals to be had on the pre-existing inventory in January (around $90k for configurations that weren't bone stock. At the time I didn't see anything I liked, so I decided to place the order for a LRX, White, 22", 6 Seater, Blk int, AP, which came out to around $112K when it was all said and done (taxes, fees, CA credit).
As the days went by, I kept looking at the renderings and feeling a bit remorseful about the color choice - what if I edited it, would I lose my spot in line? Do I even like the new 22" turbine wheels, compared to the PRX-21? As February became March, Tesla removed the estimated delivery date. It went from May/June to...we'll reach out to you.
Just by chance, a dealer down the street was selling a white 2019 P100 with ludicrous, FSD, 5 seats (eh...), those PRX-21 22" wheels I wanted, with under 7K miles. I went in to see it and it was pristine - PPF wrapped - and I was able to talk them down to $90K. I was moderately interested, but still hung up on the sub 300 mile range. Cargurus had the listing for over 60 days at that point, so I wasn't in a rush. The 2021 was estimating 340 miles with 22" wheels, and it was brand new. I didn't have to worry about a 3rd party Ford dealership not knowing how to properly condition the battery.
I never considered buying a Tesla from a 3rd party, but then I started noticing a lot of 2019's in great condition. After some more research, I learned the 2019 LR had a range of 325. Soon after, I found a Porsche dealer in Sacramento that had a white 2019 LR, FSD, 22" wheels, 5 seater with beige interior. 15K miles advertised for $82K. We made the last minute decision to take the 2 hour road trip (checkbook in hand) to check it out. Surely a Porsche dealership has a fair share of Tesla trade-ins, and knows a few things about them.
We pulled into the dealership around closing and saw...the saddest looking Model X I can remember. Chipped paint, weather striping literally flapping outside of the passenger door frame. After a test drive I discovered that 1.) FDS was actually EAP 2.) They only use the Supercharger down the street because the guy that traded it in didn't give them the charger. They nicely said they would knock off $250 for the cost of the charger. Thanks.
At that point, I didn't think I could trust a non-Tesla dealership. I was convinced I would have to see if fully charged before feeling comfortable about battery degradation. Soon after the P100 I saw earlier was sold. Even the sad one in Sacramento found a buyer. I still think about whoever bought it, hoping they knew all of the issues they were inheriting.
I kept checking the used inventory at Tesla, but then I also started to read about how they no longer offer 'certified pre-owned'. The basically give it an informal walk-through, wash it, and charge you for a delivery fee. I also read about the difficulty in getting pictures of the actual vehicle or getting the attention of a sales rep if you have any questions. Basically, trying their hardest to point you towards buying a new one.
So there I was, resigned to keeping my refresh order, when I randomly noticed listing on a site I had never heard of called TRED. It's affiliated with cars.com and is a peer-to-peer car selling site with a platform to broker communication for test drives, payment and registration. Pretty straightforward. The seller was an hour away in SF and was able to schedule a test drive the next day.
Here's the link:
TRED
Two weeks later, it's sitting in my garage and I've never been happier.
A few things to note that was happy to learn when purchasing from a 3rd party:
1. When adding the '3rd Party Vehicle', the Tesla app asks you for the VIN, which then prompts you to name the vehicle a temporary name provided by Tesla. The Bluetooth recognizes you immediately and you're done. The car is now yours.
2. Because I had a Tesla account for the refresh order and paid the deposit, my credit card was on file and I was able to Supercharge immediately
3. I was able to take over the rest of the one year of complimentary Premium Connectivity (through October). As of today, used cars at Telsa.com only get 30 days.
4. Cancelling the order could not be easier, basically like submitting a return on Amazon. You cancel, give a reason (if you want to) and the $100 is charged back to your card within a business day or so. I've read about some apprehension on this message board of people asking if they should just go ahead and put the $100 down. Who cares? And not in a way that $100 is meaningless, it's fully (and easily) refundable. I did get a text from the sales rep a few days later asking why I canceled. If that bothers some people, you can ignore it. I gave her the link to my new 2020 and I told her I got what I wanted. I also said the lack of communication about delivery didn't help keep me interested either.
Here's where I get back to the flip-flopping. When I first read this thread and my order was still active, I thought this was a place for people to feel better about (what I thought was) missing out on the refresh. Basically *sugar* talking the new features. Then I started to reconsider. What makes it $10k better? We've had the M3 for almost 3 years, and the interior looks great. Is the refresh just a bigger M3? Is Tesla making them more similar to cut down on production costs? If so, why is it more expensive?
At the end of day, some people like to be early adopters or have a video game set up in the backseat. Some people have had a MX for years and want something new. Choose whatever you'd like. I will say, if you want a 2020, I only came across a handful of them during the month I looked - and that's in CA. If you want to get into first year economics - this was a case of all 3 types of scarcity: demand-induced, supply-induced and structural.
After having been through the pomp and circumstance when we picked up the M3 in 2018, it was fun. At that time in Fremont, Tesla took over a couple closed car dealerships to handle all of the deliveries and processing. About a dozen people per hour showing up in Ubers, doing their paperwork, sales reps taking photos for people...while others walked around looking for panel gaps, naturally. This time, I took an Uber, swapped license plates and was on my way home in 5 minutes.
My parting words - I love the M3, I love the PRX-21, and I love that they are different. Why anyone would buy a Model Y is beyond me...
