Q2 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

[Ugliest1]

I will second 10,045 number for Q1.

I'll split my winnings with you 50-50

 

[ZenMan]

12,010

 

[Johann Koeber]

Waalllll, you guys know about me and significant digits

or are you not paying attention?:biggrin:

So, in line with my 6 x 10^4 for CY 2015, I'll go with 1.2 X 10^4 for 2Q.

For accountants

​I can hardly lose......

For accountants even the cents are significant

 

[Ugliest1]

Uh-oh. Maybe I should up my estimate: #418

 

[dalalsid]

No end of Q push going on this Q??

 

[AlMc]

No end of Q push going on this Q??

I was just up at the Devon, PA Service Center. Looks like 'steady' business but not a big push as I have seen in the past based on the number of new cars in the lot.

 

[uselesslogin]

I was just up at the Devon, PA Service Center. Looks like 'steady' business but not a big push as I have seen in the past based on the number of new cars in the lot.

That being said there are a lot of states with expiring credits so I'm pretty sure any end-of-quarter push resources are going to those states.

Commentary from a temp worker in WA is included in this thread:
Thrilled new Customer

 

[hobbes]

Uh-oh. Maybe I should up my estimate: #418

The 12,500 produced that the article in the post you linked talks about is the same as the outlook in the Q1 shareholder letter, so most likely no new info just juggling around with old numbers.

 

[Benz]

11,111

 

[doctoxics]

The Europe and California numbers look good, China is strengthening, so I'll say 12,200 delivered in Q2.

 

[BoerumHill]

10,625

Hope I'm way low.

 

[hobbes]

Average at 11482 right now...

 

[TSLAopt]

we're in dangerous territory by propagating this notion so much...next thing is the media picks this up and starts reporting "experts" polls projecting 13k deliveries in Q2.... next thing we know is that 13k is expected by the media and the Street and traders so then even if Tesla were to publish 12000 deliveries the stock tanks 5-10% instead of popping up 5-10%

Baird just came out with a note this morning, see following excerpt:

Kallo commented, "Although we don’t have a clear read on Q2 deliveries, we expect TSLA to meet its guidance of ~10.5k vehicles. That said, some Street estimates are calling for a delivery beat, which is likely setting high market expectations. We would use any weakness in shares as a buying opportunity as we want to own shares into the Model X launch and believe upcoming catalysts will drive shares higher."


i why wonder why "The Street" has high expectations? Because of us on this forum propagating our wildest dreams of beats onto these boards...we need to do a better job collectively here to temper expectations of those that read the boards here (much of Wall Street analysts believe it or not)

 

[AlMc]

i why wonder why "The Street" has high expectations? Because of us on this forum propagating our wildest dreams of beats onto these boards...we need to do a better job collectively here to temper expectations of those that read the boards here (much of Wall Street analysts believe it or not)

Could not agree more. I think we saw several quarters in 2014 where we all (including me) got ourselves frenzied, whisper numbers on the street appeared, only to leave us 'missing' and having significant paper losses. Been there, done that.......

 

[hobbes]

Baird just came out with a note this morning, see following excerpt:

Kallo commented, "Although we don’t have a clear read on Q2 deliveries, we expect TSLA to meet its guidance of ~10.5k vehicles. That said, some Street estimates are calling for a delivery beat, which is likely setting high market expectations. We would use any weakness in shares as a buying opportunity as we want to own shares into the Model X launch and believe upcoming catalysts will drive shares higher."


i why wonder why "The Street" has high expectations? Because of us on this forum propagating our wildest dreams of beats onto these boards...we need to do a better job collectively here to temper expectations of those that read the boards here (much of Wall Street analysts believe it or not)

I understand the problem, but I only see two solutions which I both don't like:
- Make the board private in a way that only "we" can see our discussions (not feasible even technically I think)
- Be dishonest about our own estimates/projections

If some site want's to set expectations too high with the purpose of them not being met, they can do it without us, too.
If price goes up because of too high expectations and corrects after facts are known, it is likely the outcome is about the same as having lower expectations in the first place (unless you are trading short term and get the timing wrong).

 

[chickensevil]

I just can't believe that analysts with access directly with the company (I mean these guys go and tour the factory practically whenever they want) would take our wildest dreams as some kind of fact... I mean all we ever have is a bunch of coincidences that seem to tie toward a beat or miss. If the whole market wants to base the sentiment of the stock price on some of us lowly retail investors, then it deserves to see misses on that expectation (in either direction) quite frequently.

I mean, have you seen the latest polling that was done of how many shares we have as individuals? The vast majority of the respondents had less than 100 shares. If you are going to base your top dollar analysis on some investors opinion who holds less money on TSLA than they likely make in a month... then they deserve to be wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

My above comments being said,

I still think we will see a beat this quarter

 

[replicant]

I mean, have you seen the latest polling that was done of how many shares we have as individuals? The vast majority of the respondents had less than 100 shares. If you are going to base your top dollar analysis on some investors opinion who holds less money on TSLA than they likely make in a month... then they deserve to be wrong.

Here's the poll in question. Quick summary:
On average, a respondent owns 2,843 TSLA shares ($759,760 at today's EP). Most respondents own over 1,000 shares ($267,230).
Together, the 77 participants in the poll own 218,910 shares ($58.5 million).

 

[schonelucht]

i why wonder why "The Street" has high expectations? Because of us on this forum propagating our wildest dreams of beats onto these boards...we need to do a better job collectively here to temper expectations of those that read the boards here (much of Wall Street analysts believe it or not)

I don't believe for a second that this board is the catalyst. It's just that the analysts are reading the same tea leaves as we do. They too added the European numbers and saw April/May coming in significantly higher. They too read the China import reports starting up again. They too got the message about 70D being well received. They too looked at the California BEV numbers etc...

And finally, they too think Tesla is purposefully sandbagging the numbers.

 

[chickensevil]

Here's the poll in question. Quick summary:
On average, a respondent owns 2,843 TSLA shares ($759,760 at today's EP). Most respondents own over 1,000 shares ($267,230).
Together, the 77 participants in the poll own 218,910 shares ($58.5 million).

given that the median number is 1000, you could also say most respondents own 1000 or less as well. (although it does look like people have finally responded a bit more from the initial look I did of the polling which filled in a bit more in the sub 3000 range). Still I stand by what I said. With a collective market cap of 58.5M$ we are 1% of 1% of the market... If you are listening to our advice as an analyst, I would suggest you are doing it wrong (cons

 

[StapleGun]

The official count is 11,507