TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
Start a Discussionhttps://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/tags/

Q3 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by hobbes, Sep 27, 2015.

Tags:
?

How many deliveries do you expect for Q3 2015?

Poll closed Sep 30, 2015.
  1. Less than 9000

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 9000 to 9499

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 9500 to 9999

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. 10,000 to 10,499

    4.8%
  5. 10,500 to 10,999

    2.4%
  6. 11,000 to 11,499

    7.2%
  7. 11,500 to 11,999

    21.7%
  8. 12,000 to 12,499

    37.3%
  9. 12,500 to 12,999

    21.7%
  10. 13,000 or more

    4.8%
  1. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    1,535
    Location:
    Germany
    #1 hobbes, Sep 27, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2015
    We already have a thread already for the discussion (but without poll), but after last quarter´s success of predicting the actual number together (average of 11,482 in the poll, 11,532 official), I still like a poll (if any moderator feels like, it would cool to have the discussion from the other thread merged with the poll here).

    Please post your prediction for Q3 deliveries as a number and also enter the poll, so we can see results graphically also.
    Deadline: September 30, before Tesla announces offcial number in the beginning of October.
    Note this is a public poll where everyone can see how voted for which option.

    Q1 had 10,045
    Q2 had 11,532 (guidance had been 10,000 to 11,000)
    Q2 shareholder letter says
    My estimate: 12,300 deliveries in Q3.
     
  2. Perfectlogic

    Perfectlogic Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2014
    Messages:
    645
    Location:
    Denmark
    11,500 to 11,999, you heard it here first.
     
  3. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2013
    Messages:
    597
    Location:
    South Surrey, BC, Canada
  4. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    1,535
    Location:
    Germany
    You have to click the poll, too! Otherwise, no price ;).
     
  5. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2013
    Messages:
    597
    Location:
    South Surrey, BC, Canada
    No link on my iPhone.
     
  6. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    Q3 2015 Tesla Model S deliveries: 12,345
     
  7. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2013
    Messages:
    1,817
    Location:
    Austin, Texas USA
    Oh, ye of little faith!

    14,646 :)
     
  8. pGo

    pGo Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2013
    Messages:
    852
    Location:
    US
  9. Tamar

    Tamar Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2015
    Messages:
    169
    Location:
    St. Paul, MN
  10. Crowded Mind

    Crowded Mind Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2014
    Messages:
    563
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Just want to include the entirety of the Q3 guidance in case anyone assumed it was 12,000 deliveries. They actually guided for roughly 11,500 deliveries, flat to Q2.



    I will add my guess in another post.
     
  11. Ryo

    Ryo Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2013
    Messages:
    51
    Location:
    Niagara, ON
  12. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    1,535
    Location:
    Germany
    Thanks, actually missed that because I was scanning for another number for deliveries and didn´t see one.
     
  13. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2015
    Messages:
    808
    Location:
    Arcadia, CA
    12,001!

    Although the second line's up, it might've still been tuned, so they're still production constrained.
     
  14. RationalOptimist

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2013
    Messages:
    175
    Location:
    New York
    I'll be pleased w anything over 12k, but predict 11,701.
     
  15. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Model 3 Reservation Holder

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,361
    Location:
    Omaha, NE
  16. Ugliest1

    Ugliest1 S85: "Sparky"

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2013
    Messages:
    1,203
    Location:
    Victoria BC Canada
    Since 12,345 was taken, I'll go with 11,777
     
  17. Buddyroe

    Buddyroe Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2014
    Messages:
    700
    Location:
    Bloomingdale, GA
    11,885

    They timed the release of the X right with the deliveries announcement - tells me they're trying to lessen the blow of the missed deliveries number.

    My number for the year is 47k at most. Just don't see how they get from ~33.5k (if my guess is close) to 50k when they're not even letting people configure the X yet (outside of the 40 or 50 signatures). That tells me that no meaning numbers of X deliveries will start until maybe November 15th. I think they will deliver 1k X's in Q4 and 12,500 S's.

    PS. I probably posted way more than what was asked for. :rolleyes:
     
  18. Drax7

    Drax7 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2013
    Messages:
    1,326
    Location:
    Florida
    #18 Drax7, Sep 28, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2015
    12,000 seems about right .

    (60 working days times 200/day= 12,000 total.
     
  19. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Messages:
    775
    Location:
    New York, New York, United States
    I love that everyone is completely ignoring guidance of 11,500 and throwing out numbers above 12K! I'm going with 11,564.
     
  20. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Model 3 Reservation Holder

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,361
    Location:
    Omaha, NE
    Oh geez, reread the sentence in the shareholder letter. I would change mine to 11,750 but will let those with better reading comprehension win.

    Here is the source of my fail:
    I stopped reading after "same number of vehicles" and had this in my head:
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC