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Q3 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by hobbes, Sep 27, 2015.

?

How many deliveries do you expect for Q3 2015?

Poll closed Sep 30, 2015.
  1. Less than 9000

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 9000 to 9499

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 9500 to 9999

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. 10,000 to 10,499

    4.8%
  5. 10,500 to 10,999

    2.4%
  6. 11,000 to 11,499

    7.2%
  7. 11,500 to 11,999

    21.7%
  8. 12,000 to 12,499

    37.3%
  9. 12,500 to 12,999

    21.7%
  10. 13,000 or more

    4.8%
  1. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    #1 hobbes, Sep 27, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2015
    We already have a thread already for the discussion (but without poll), but after last quarter´s success of predicting the actual number together (average of 11,482 in the poll, 11,532 official), I still like a poll (if any moderator feels like, it would cool to have the discussion from the other thread merged with the poll here).

    Please post your prediction for Q3 deliveries as a number and also enter the poll, so we can see results graphically also.
    Deadline: September 30, before Tesla announces offcial number in the beginning of October.
    Note this is a public poll where everyone can see how voted for which option.

    Q1 had 10,045
    Q2 had 11,532 (guidance had been 10,000 to 11,000)
    Q2 shareholder letter says
    My estimate: 12,300 deliveries in Q3.
     
  2. Perfectlogic

    Perfectlogic Member

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    11,500 to 11,999, you heard it here first.
     
  3. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

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  4. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    You have to click the poll, too! Otherwise, no price ;).
     
  5. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

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    No link on my iPhone.
     
  6. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Q3 2015 Tesla Model S deliveries: 12,345
     
  7. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

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    Oh, ye of little faith!

    14,646 :)
     
  8. pGo

    pGo Member

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    US
  9. Tamar

    Tamar Member

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  10. Crowded Mind

    Crowded Mind Member

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    Just want to include the entirety of the Q3 guidance in case anyone assumed it was 12,000 deliveries. They actually guided for roughly 11,500 deliveries, flat to Q2.



    I will add my guess in another post.
     
  11. Ryo

    Ryo Member

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  12. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Thanks, actually missed that because I was scanning for another number for deliveries and didn´t see one.
     
  13. Oil4AsphaultOnly

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    12,001!

    Although the second line's up, it might've still been tuned, so they're still production constrained.
     
  14. RationalOptimist

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    I'll be pleased w anything over 12k, but predict 11,701.
     
  15. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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  16. Ugliest1

    Ugliest1 S85: "Sparky"

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    Since 12,345 was taken, I'll go with 11,777
     
  17. Buddyroe

    Buddyroe Member

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    11,885

    They timed the release of the X right with the deliveries announcement - tells me they're trying to lessen the blow of the missed deliveries number.

    My number for the year is 47k at most. Just don't see how they get from ~33.5k (if my guess is close) to 50k when they're not even letting people configure the X yet (outside of the 40 or 50 signatures). That tells me that no meaning numbers of X deliveries will start until maybe November 15th. I think they will deliver 1k X's in Q4 and 12,500 S's.

    PS. I probably posted way more than what was asked for. :rolleyes:
     
  18. Drax7

    Drax7 Active Member

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    #18 Drax7, Sep 28, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2015
    12,000 seems about right .

    (60 working days times 200/day= 12,000 total.
     
  19. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

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    I love that everyone is completely ignoring guidance of 11,500 and throwing out numbers above 12K! I'm going with 11,564.
     
  20. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Oh geez, reread the sentence in the shareholder letter. I would change mine to 11,750 but will let those with better reading comprehension win.

    Here is the source of my fail:
    I stopped reading after "same number of vehicles" and had this in my head:
     

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