Indeed, true - I under-estimated cash inflow. Another mistake in my estimates are the long term debt maturities due in 2018/2019/2020: Q4'2018: $230m convertible senior notes Q4'2018: $185m term loan note Q1'2019: $920m convertible note Q4'2019: $566m convertible note That's $1.901b due in the next nine quarters - about $211m per quarter outflow. So the $2.5b-$3.0b guidance Tesla gave for the 8 quarters of 2019 and 2020 maps to a guidance of $625m-$750m of capex outflow per quarter - which I suspect distributes into similar levels of depreciation flows in the GAAP space. $625m-$750m plus $211m average debt maturities gives a baseline level of expected operating cash flow of $836m-$961m - comfortably below Q3 levels (60-70% of operating cash flow), that should give some buffer space both to stay free cash flow positive, for bigger spikes of debt maturities that are front-loaded in 2019, and any seasonal fluctuations or higher expenses (such as tariffs) from operations. Am I missing anything, or does Tesla's capex guidance for 2019-2020 indeed look conservative?