Q4 2015 Delivery Prediction Competition

[chickensevil]

Now watch the professional analysts lurk in the forum, take that number as baseline for what is expected and have a meeting of guidance (i.e. 17k) dismissed by the same "professionals" as "disappointment since it fell 1k short of the expectations..." - or so...

If the market really does start to expect a beat, the shareprice should shoot up quite a bit from here. So if the price goes up before we actually get numbers, only to miss those amazing numbers, then yeah, I would expect it would be a "disappointing" quarter. Same thing happened in Q3 last year.

 

[Crowded Mind]

I'm gonna go with 17,625. This quarter seems very tough to gauge to me, but I expect they made at least the low end of guidance. I expect they produced around 16,500.

 

[esk8mw]

19177

 

[wdolson]

Saw this last night:

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-pace-deliver-18300-cars-q4/

People here aren't the only ones making predictions

 

[Benz]

17,750

At least 4,000 deliveries in California.

Make that 17,950

At least 4,000 deliveries in California.

 

[Crowded Mind]

17,358 deliveries, no more, no less :wink:

With the news of 17,400 deliveries for Q4, JRP3 has won! Congrats! Only off by 42 cars.

 

[SebastianR]

With the news of 17,400 deliveries for Q4, JRP3 has won! Congrats! Only off by 42 cars.

Congrats JRP3!

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If the market really does start to expect a beat, the shareprice should shoot up quite a bit from here. So if the price goes up before we actually get numbers, only to miss those amazing numbers, then yeah, I would expect it would be a "disappointing" quarter. Same thing happened in Q3 last year.

Well, the actual number is below Trip Chowdhry's number and below the TMC consensus... So let's see what Mr. Market makes of this.

I mean it is quite amazing: incredible growth quarter over quarter etc. etc. but "barely meets guidance" and then the Norway incident. This may be a buying opportunity on Monday. On a different note: it is better than what I predicted (I love to be wrong like that)

 

[JRP3]

Well, I said "no more and no less", but I'll take the win :wink: Honestly I was hoping to be wrong by about 1,000 under, but it seemed unlikely, especially after Acid Trip Chowdhry started calling for almost exactly 1,000 more than I predicted. He's consistent in his enthusiasm.

 

[MikeC]

Well, the actual number is below Trip Chowdhry's number and below the TMC consensus... So let's see what Mr. Market makes of this.

I mean it is quite amazing: incredible growth quarter over quarter etc. etc. but "barely meets guidance" and then the Norway incident. This may be a buying opportunity on Monday. On a different note: it is better than what I predicted (I love to be wrong like that)

I don't think there's ever been a single quarter where Trip and TMC have not been over-optimistic on results. This was a solid quarter where TM delivered a huge jump in deliveries and revenue. Everything is on track and we are now in Q1 2016, which will hopefully be cash flow positive. If the street doesn't recognize that, I'm a buyer tomorrow.

 

[Cattledog]

Congrats JRP3!

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Well, the actual number is below Trip Chowdhry's number and below the TMC consensus... So let's see what Mr. Market makes of this.

I mean it is quite amazing: incredible growth quarter over quarter etc. etc. but "barely meets guidance" and then the Norway incident. This may be a buying opportunity on Monday. On a different note: it is better than what I predicted (I love to be wrong like that)

I think TMC represents the optimistic 1%, thus market will like this. Step change in production - delivered. Now need to put together 4 quarters like and slightly better than Q4 2015 and get to above 75K for 2016. Norway reaction? I don't know. Hopefully muted. Slow hike up from here, not a launch like many (I) were hoping for.

 

[dirkhh]

The market will likely take this as a miss of the "whisper number". And the shorts will have detailed analysis of the Tesla fire at the SC in Norway plus a quick mention of "fewer than widely expected" deliveries.

--> buying opportunity!

 

[Chickenlittle]

Congrats JRP3!

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Well, the actual number is below Trip Chowdhry's number and below the TMC consensus... So let's see what Mr. Market makes of this.

I mean it is quite amazing: incredible growth quarter over quarter etc. etc. but "barely meets guidance" and then the Norway incident. This may be a buying opportunity on Monday. On a different note: it is better than what I predicted (I love to be wrong like that)

How could you even mention trip chowdhry. He has never been right by anything he's has predicted. If he said the world were round, I would think we should open a discussion whether it's really flat

 

[SebastianR]

How could you even mention trip chowdhry. He has never been right by anything he's has predicted. If he said the world were round, I would think we should open a discussion whether it's really flat

Good point. But read for instance the article here:

Tesla barely hits Q4 goal amid cautious start for Model X - MarketWatch

The sentiment is so-so...

 

[FredTMC]

Market watch is usually biased against tesla.

 

[Quant]

I said it before and I'll say it again ! Due to what is expected to be at least a 1 week shutdown in January of production , I suspected that once they got close to 17500 TSLA would no longer push aggressively to deliver more in Q 4 and allow some 500-750 to slide into January . I think there really was no need for them to get to 18.5 k midpoint , given that the market only expected them to make the 17 k ( I say market recently had it at maybe 75 pc probability and 25 pc of a near miss of the 17 k ). Trip is known by all to be quite the optimist and so everyone knows to take him with a grain of salt . Anyways, I prefer sliding 500 or more deliveries into Jan. It's actually quite smart because 4 Q will be in the rear view window. Now they do need to ramp up Quality X production and satisfy the intl market customers who have been put on hold for the last 6 weeks, asap. I don't see any major decline unless broader market starts the year off negatively and in that case TSLA will slide 2 or 2.5 times the broader market based
on it's beta.

As far the supercharger incident in Norway that is another story and we don't really know the cause of that yet !

 

[Benz]

Only 14 votes from the total of 85 were in the right section (17,000 - 17,499).

 

[Crowded Mind]

Only 14 votes from the total of 85 were in the right section (17,000 - 17,499).

Yes. Although around 50% were within 500, and the median isn't far off.