The only way you’ll see the base model is if demand for optioned models dries up. Unfortunately for you, if you’re waiting for that, every Model 3 sold between now and then is a rolling sales pitch to sell 5 more.
In this game of chicken, Tesla will come out the winner, because people will see the credit clock ticking and figure it’s better to take the money and get some “free” options rather than slipping into the next phase-out tier of the federal credit.
Tesla needs cash more than anything right now, so the number of 27,500 Model 3s after incentives is going to wind up being zero or extremely close to it. Tesla can dribble out paid options to spike demand as needed to maximize the amount of federal credit money being diverted to them.
After the credit is fully phased out, you’ll surely, eventually be able to get a base model for $35K. Minimum price now is $49K for black without EAP, minus 7500 is 41,500. So do you want 14,000 of options for 6,500 or not?
All depends on whether you can afford the 6,500 and make use of the extra battery, whether you think production at Fremont will ramp much higher, whether you think demand will dry up in time to get a half credit, whether you think Tesla will lower the price of options after the phase out, whether you think you’ll be quick enough on the draw to configure once the option is available to beat out everyone else sitting on a LR in their driveway and a second reservation in the queue, etc.
Financing 6500 over 5 years is going to cost you around 120/mo or so, push the car expense into your life sooner, but also save you from months of additional waiting. In my case this decision was easy, because my 2006 car kept springing mechanical problems. The airbag light lit on the way to trade it in for my Model 3, so the timing worked out perfectly.
Do you like road trips?