Q4 Base model outlook

[amoeba]

I have two reservations that I I haven't built yet. Got the invite a couple months back but sitting on the fence waiting to see how the situation plays out. What do you guys think about:

1) Chances of base model in Q4 still qualifying for the incentive

2) Still getting a California carpool sticker in Q4.

The two reservation are deferred so hopefully they're ready to be ordered as soon as they announce the base model to be configured.

 

[Thunder7ga]

IMO, not looking good until 2019.

 

[dhanson865]

1) Chances of base model in Q4 still qualifying for the incentive

If you mean the $7,500 federal tax credit, you'll know about that in 2 or 3 weeks (First week of July).

As to the base model if the credit goes to December 31, I'd say you are safe waiting until September or October to order. Make your decision then. After Halloween I'd say others will have taken that slot and orders will exceed supply until the end of the year.

 

[ucmndd]

I think there's no way we see base battery in any meaningful quantity before Q1 2019. Seems very obvious at this point the 200k mark will hit in July, so the clock starts ticking then.

 

[Knightshade]

I think there's no way we see base battery in any meaningful quantity before Q1 2019. Seems very obvious at this point the 200k mark will hit in July, so the clock starts ticking then.

This.

They will likely produce a token few to say they met their "end of 2018 goal" for starting base model production, but that's about it.

99.9% of base model cars getting any tax credit will get the $3750 reduced credit first half of next year, or the $1875 reduced credit second half of next year

 

[pavankp]

2) Still getting a California carpool sticker in Q4.

I applied for the sticker the day after I picked up the car, and I got the sticker a month after pickup. If you take delivery of a base model in say November (which is quite unlikely), you will get the stickers in December, and the sticker will expire on January 1. You will have to apply again with the rest of us for the new sticker program that is yet to be announced.

 

[trentbridge]

If Tesla doesn't deliver the 200,000th USA car until after July 1st, then in January 2019 you'd qualify for a $3750 tax rebate..if you received a Model 3 in Jan-June 2019.

 

[intjester]

The only way you’ll see the base model is if demand for optioned models dries up. Unfortunately for you, if you’re waiting for that, every Model 3 sold between now and then is a rolling sales pitch to sell 5 more.

In this game of chicken, Tesla will come out the winner, because people will see the credit clock ticking and figure it’s better to take the money and get some “free” options rather than slipping into the next phase-out tier of the federal credit.

Tesla needs cash more than anything right now, so the number of 27,500 Model 3s after incentives is going to wind up being zero or extremely close to it. Tesla can dribble out paid options to spike demand as needed to maximize the amount of federal credit money being diverted to them.

After the credit is fully phased out, you’ll surely, eventually be able to get a base model for $35K. Minimum price now is $49K for black without EAP, minus 7500 is 41,500. So do you want 14,000 of options for 6,500 or not?

All depends on whether you can afford the 6,500 and make use of the extra battery, whether you think production at Fremont will ramp much higher, whether you think demand will dry up in time to get a half credit, whether you think Tesla will lower the price of options after the phase out, whether you think you’ll be quick enough on the draw to configure once the option is available to beat out everyone else sitting on a LR in their driveway and a second reservation in the queue, etc.

Financing 6500 over 5 years is going to cost you around 120/mo or so, push the car expense into your life sooner, but also save you from months of additional waiting. In my case this decision was easy, because my 2006 car kept springing mechanical problems. The airbag light lit on the way to trade it in for my Model 3, so the timing worked out perfectly.

Do you like road trips?

 

[ucmndd]

The only way you’ll see the base model is if demand for optioned models dries up.

AND if they figure out how to make one profitably for $35k. Seems pretty clear they haven’t unlocked that achievement yet.

 

[commasign]

What does your Model 3 delivery estimator say? If it says Late 2018 for standard battery, I think you have a good chance of getting it by end of year. But only the earliest line waiters will have the opportunity. I think most reservations now say Early 2019 for the standard battery.

 

[dhanson865]

What does your Model 3 delivery estimator say? If it says Late 2018 for standard battery, I think you have a good chance of getting it by end of year. But only the earliest line waiters will have the opportunity. I think most reservations now say Early 2019 for the standard battery.

View attachment 310599

so many configs ahead of the base model

Given the prices below and no paint, wheels or autopilot options:

LR battery pack $9,000
AWD $5,000
Premium Upgrades Package (PUP) $5000

There are 9 major hardware configs

1. $78,000 Performance
2. $54,000 AWD "all in" AWD + PUP + LR
3. $49,000 "First available" - PUP + LR - NO AWD
4. $49,000 AWD LR - NO PUP
5. $45,000 AWD PUP - NO LR
6. $44,000 LR, no PUP, no AWD
7. $40,000 PUP, no AWD, no LR
8. $40,000 AWD - NO PUP - NO LR
9. $35,000 BASE BASE BASE Model 3 with no major options.

Truly base model will be at the end of the line behind the top 8 configs.

We can assume config 3 has run it's course but Configs 1 and 2 are new starting in a few weeks and once that door opens a lot of those will be made for the impatient and/or wealthy.

Then configs 4, 5, and 6 will probably all become available at the same time for the next batches.

Then 7 and 8 (which are both likely less common configs, #8 appeals to me).

Finally after all the above are satisfied the base model will come out. Anybody that wants a base model just needs to print out that list and cross off each one from the top as soon as a cheaper option is delivered to someone. Whatever is left highest on the list not crossed out in Mid October is likely where your sweet spot is IF you truly have $7,500 in tax liability. Either config 7 or 8 would be pretty close to base config.

For someone like me with less than $7,500 in tax liability you can wait as late as May 2019 for the true base model to come out, to be sure to get the $3,750 credit.

I suppose those not sitting on a day 1 reservation (people that haven't already got an invite and deferred the first available config) have to watch all this and wait for the invite in addition to checking off the list of configs that have been made available.

Me I'm sitting at the end of the line with no reservation. I still expect the queue to clear out and all the configs to be in play before I pull the trigger.

 

[commasign]

Me I'm sitting at the end of the line with no reservation. I still expect the queue to clear out and all the configs to be in play before I pull the trigger.

Elon did say he expects the average selling price of Model 3 to be around $43k which means a mix of mostly configurations 5 through 10. But the company has to be profitable and self sustaining first which means focusing on configurations 1 through 4 for now.

 

[MXWing]

No chance base Model 3 shows up this year.

The target minimum priced Model 3 is going to be 54,000 which is the LR PUP with EAP.

The uptake on EAP is very high based on the small poll sample I did. So adding in AWD they won’t be able to make enough $60,000 Model 3s to cover demand in 2018.

I can’t even get a AWD or P invite despite being a prior owner.

 

[gambit48]

I agree. No chance base Model 3 shows up in 2018. Elon has hinted as such already.

I wouldn't worry about the CA carpool sticker. A new Tesla is gonna be eligible for whichever one is out at the time.

 

[FlatSix911]

What does your Model 3 delivery estimator say? If it says Late 2018 for standard battery, I think you have a good chance of getting it by end of year. But only the earliest line waiters will have the opportunity. I think most reservations now say Early 2019 for the standard battery.

View attachment 310599

Not likely... Musk Confirms $35,000 Base Tesla Model 3 Still 6 Months Away

Fast forward to the recent 2018 Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting and Musk spoke to this once again. When asked about whether or not he could promise that the $35,000 Model 3 would, in fact, become a reality, Musk said it is definitely coming. He shared that Tesla should begin building the car in the first quarter of 2019. Musk’s words (via Teslarati):

Yes. We will definitely offer a $35,000 version of the Model 3. And probably at the end of this year is when we will be able to make a smaller version of the battery pack, and get into volume production of $35,000 version in Q1 next year. We would definitely honor that obligation, and we would do so right now if it were possible.

It wasn’t long before the realization came that the base Model 3 wasn’t coming for a very long time. In some people’s minds, it may never come. However, Musk has made it clear now on multiple occasions that Tesla will stand true to its word and bring the car to market. We have no idea how many copies the automaker plans to make, as much as we don’t know how many people actually want the base version.

 

[Pudgie Child]

There are 9 major hardware configs

1. $78,000 Performance
2. $54,000 AWD "all in" AWD + PUP + LR
3. $49,000 "First available" - PUP + LR - NO AWD
4. $49,000 AWD LR - NO PUP
5. $45,000 AWD PUP - NO LR
6. $44,000 LR, no PUP, no AWD
7. $40,000 PUP, no AWD, no LR
8. $40,000 AWD - NO PUP - NO LR
9. $35,000 BASE BASE BASE Model 3 with no major options.

Truly base model will be at the end of the line behind the top 8 configs.

I'm beginning to wonder if the $35K "BASE BASE BASE" model will be made available sooner than the other SR configurations just so Elon can silence critics who are bound to claim Bait-and-Switch if the $35K version isn't made available to at least the first-day reservation holders before the full tax credit expires.

FWIW, my Delivery Estimator is still claiming that Yours Truly (a "first-morning" Eastern Daylight Time reservation holder) can take possession of a $35K Model 3 before New Years Day 2019.

 

[ChrisH]

I want a $46,000 version and hope I can take delivery getting the $3750 credit. I placed my reservation way too late to get the full credit. I’m worried I placed it too late to even get the $3750 credit with how many 3s I’ve seen on the road lately south of Seattle. I saw 3 just this weekend on two short drives.

 

[commasign]

And probably at the end of this year is when we will be able to make a smaller version of the battery, and get into volume production of $35,000 version in Q1 next year.

To me it sounds like a few lucky people will get the $35,000 car this year. I don’t think he meant to distinguish the smaller battery from the $35,000 version. Seemed to be part of the same train of thought in typical Elon stream of consciousness fashion.

In any case, Tesla will have to update the delivery estimator if they truly have no plans to deliver the standard battery for those in the “Late 2018” standard battery window.

 

[adaptabl]

The only way you’ll see the base model is if demand for optioned models dries up. Unfortunately for you, if you’re waiting for that, every Model 3 sold between now and then is a rolling sales pitch to sell 5 more.

In this game of chicken, Tesla will come out the winner, because people will see the credit clock ticking and figure it’s better to take the money and get some “free” options rather than slipping into the next phase-out tier of the federal credit.

Tesla needs cash more than anything right now, so the number of 27,500 Model 3s after incentives is going to wind up being zero or extremely close to it. Tesla can dribble out paid options to spike demand as needed to maximize the amount of federal credit money being diverted to them.

After the credit is fully phased out, you’ll surely, eventually be able to get a base model for $35K. Minimum price now is $49K for black without EAP, minus 7500 is 41,500. So do you want 14,000 of options for 6,500 or not?

All depends on whether you can afford the 6,500 and make use of the extra battery, whether you think production at Fremont will ramp much higher, whether you think demand will dry up in time to get a half credit, whether you think Tesla will lower the price of options after the phase out, whether you think you’ll be quick enough on the draw to configure once the option is available to beat out everyone else sitting on a LR in their driveway and a second reservation in the queue, etc.

Financing 6500 over 5 years is going to cost you around 120/mo or so, push the car expense into your life sooner, but also save you from months of additional waiting. In my case this decision was easy, because my 2006 car kept springing mechanical problems. The airbag light lit on the way to trade it in for my Model 3, so the timing worked out perfectly.

Do you like road trips?

We will see if there is enough demand for 250,000 units per year. Elon has been very secretive about reservations, how many cancelled, how many they have gone thru and how many are being added. I would hope an the next earning call, investors make him disclose this information. I suspect the next big problem will be finding enough buyers for model 3's if they really reach the 5,000/week or more production.

 

[Knightshade]

We will see if there is enough demand for 250,000 units per year. Elon has been very secretive about reservations, how many cancelled, how many they have gone thru and how many are being added. I would hope an the next earning call, investors make him disclose this information. I suspect the next big problem will be finding enough buyers for model 3's if they really reach the 5,000/week or more production.

How have they been secretive?

in last months shareholder letter Tesla stated

Model 3 net reservations, including configured orders that had not yet been delivered, continued to exceed 450,000 at the end of Q1