-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
For last quarter @schonelucht did an extensive vin analysis and created a very informative thread off of it.
2016 Third quarter results discussion
I hope he will do the same this time around.
2016 Third quarter results discussion
I hope he will do the same this time around.
I was very optimistic at the beginning of this quarter, expecting Tesla delivers some 26.500 cars, but rumours of delays in Ap-2 hardware supplies, QC of this hardware taking more time and delaying deliveries, 5 seats and RDH Tesla X seeming a little late, put me in the reserve about total deliveries for this quarter, so my guess is more like 22.955 cars in Q4, but with an huge number of cars in transit, maybe more than 6.500.
Please Tesla, prove me wrong and delivers 26.000 cars in Q4 to complete 80.000 deliveries in the year!
Please Tesla, prove me wrong and delivers 26.000 cars in Q4 to complete 80.000 deliveries in the year!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Your observation is a different way of asking about Q4 production, along with how the latter quarter distribution of that production lands in this quarter and next, and how the weather effects deliveries etc..
My suggestion - since this is a delivery prediction thread, and deliveries are what drives Q4 revenue, go with it as it stands. For my own part, I'm a sufficiently long term investor, I'm indifferent to Q4 deliveries - I watch production (and whether a given vehicle is delivered next quarter or this one is noise to me).
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
What the heck is up with the five significant digit predictions?
The only way that makes any sense is with inside information, but if that's the case your numbers should all match.
And that is the reason that I have won every single one of these predictions, if I recall correctly. Q.V. this thread post #14.
Somehow, though, I don't never get no rispeck for it.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I like @Bgarret's number the best. I can't decide if it is because of his inside info or the fact it is the highest number in your quoted post.
Imho, the multiple guesses with 5 significant digits does allow a more accurate mean, which should give us a closer approximation to the "actual" number.
I believe it's called the wisdom of the crowds:
The Wisdom of Crowds - Wikipedia
25638
Thanks Al. By the way, really appreciated your candor about your 170/180 - 210 entry points. I was with you philosophically, but ended up pullling the trigger at 198 for 2018 & 2019 LEAPS and some shorter term March and June options plays.I like @Bgarret's number the best. I can't decide if it is because of his inside info or the fact it is the highest number in your quoted post.
As for my delivery number and the 5 digit specificity. Couple things. It's arbitrary, not insider, like going out for coffee or caramels. Watching the S and X delivery threads, there are....deliveries, and not nearly as much drama. Throw in some robust consumer sentiment and compelling demand levers, and you have.....a number. My number. 26,781. I stand beside it, and behind it, and alongside it. It is robust without being rotund....realistic, yet optimistic, dynamic, yet the boring we all hope these numbers become when we add a 0 to the end in the next few years.
Merry Christmas to all, but none more so than those that are expecting an S or X delivery in the next 2 weeks. May Santa Elon be generous, and timely and make all your dreams come true...! And may he make your present and make my LEAP present to myself more valuable each day. It's a Christmas miracle, Tiny Tim!!
Last edited:
No problem: I have picked up some J19s. Fewer than I wanted but I set low price targets daily and only a few triggered. I still have quite a bit of stock but much less than my 'high point'. It has really been a tough two years for TSLA and my timing on the ups/downs has literally been 50:50.
Nice to have some other realistic bulls (like you) around. The ST thread becomes a shouting match at times
Similar threads
- Question
