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Reconciliation Bill and Estimated Delivery timing

Thawk

Member
Jul 6, 2021
64
143
Minnesota
Looks like the vote got postponed to thursday.


I think the Thursday vote is for the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which (as far as I know) doesn't have EV incentives in it. The larger $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill (which does currently have EV credits) doesn't have a voting date as democrats don't yet think they have enough support to pass it.
 

codenko

Member
Nov 10, 2016
58
42
California
I think the Thursday vote is for the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which (as far as I know) doesn't have EV incentives in it. The larger $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill (which does currently have EV credits) doesn't have a voting date as democrats don't yet think they have enough support to pass it.
Correct. I think the general consensus somewhere was that they were going to try and force both bills through if they had support for the infrastructure bill....but I honestly doubt either will. Guess we'll see.
 

RD3P

Member
Sep 2, 2021
156
94
Ohio
Well the day has come and gone. No new definitive information. Foreign auto makers urge the bill do be rejected. Knew that was coming. No vote from what I can fine. No idea if the tax credit will be available for Tesla. No idea if the income limits were moved. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
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RD3P

Member
Sep 2, 2021
156
94
Ohio
I found a good piece of reading about this subject here The Clean Energy for America Act and Its Potential Impact on Tesla (October 2021).

Here are a few clips;

Tesla cars bought after May 24, 2021 would be retroactively eligible for a $7,500 tax credit on 2021 tax returns.
Tesla cars bought after December 31, 2021 would be eligible for: In the House version, an $8,000 tax credit (excluding the Model S and X), but in the Senate version, a $10,000 tax credit (excluding the Model S and X) on 2022 tax returns.
Summary: Pending EV tax credits would have a positive impact on Tesla by making most Tesla cars eligible for an $8,000 (House version) or $10,000 (Senate version) tax credit and handicapping Chinese EVs from entering the US market. However, Tesla does not employ unionized labor, so Tesla would be ineligible for an additional $4,500 (House version), or $2,500 (Senate version) credit that companies such as Ford and GM would gain.

Seven Takeaways for Tesla:

1. With the 200,000 vehicle cap removed, Tesla cars sold after May 24, 2021 would be eligible for a $7,500 credit.

This is the standard credit of $7,500. Any of the enhanced credits for cars assembled in the United States and/or assembled by union labor would not take effect until 2022.

The renewal of an EV tax credit for Tesla provides new opportunities for growth

2. Most Tesla cars sold starting on January 1, 2022 would be eligible for an $8,000 or $10,000 credit.

This credit includes both the $7,500 main credit plus another $500 for Tesla cars with American-made batteries (House version), or another $2,500 (Senate version).

Tesla cars would not be eligible for an additional $4,500 credit (House version) or additional $2,500 credit (Senate version) because Tesla employees are not unionized.

The MSRP cap set by both the House ($55,000 for sedans, $69,000 for SUVs, and $74,000 for trucks) and Senate ($80,000) will have the same effect upon Tesla cars:

  • All three versions of the Cybertruck would qualify
  • All versions of the Model 3 would qualify - Not sure about this, Model 3 Performance starts at $56,990
  • All versions of the Model Y would qualify
  • *All versions of the Model S and Model X would NOT qualify

3. Because the extra $500 credit (House version) or $2,500 credit (Senate version) would not apply until 2022, the law could depress sales in Q4 2021.

If someone waits until 2022 to buy a new Tesla, they would eligible for an additional $500 or $2,500 credit. This could have a negative effect upon Tesla in 2021 by causing some people to delay their purchase until 2022.

4. A $2,500 credit for used EVs could help the used Tesla car market.

Since this credit equally applies to all EV car makers, this credit would help equally and not be unfairly biased against Tesla.

5. The exclusion of Chinese-made EVs from the tax credit is a blow to Chinese EV companies such as NIO and Xpeng.

Many view NIO and other Chinese EV companies as a potential threat to Tesla, so Tesla stands to gain from this bill. However, it's unclear if these Chinese EV companies are even intending to prioritize the US market. Thus, the competition between Tesla and these Chinese EV companies may play out in China more than in the United States. But this law would further disincentivize Chinese EV companies from targeting US customers by handicapping their access to the US market. A Chinese-made EV would essentially cost $10,000 to $12,500 more than an American-made EV. This would be another win for Tesla and every other American EV car maker.

6. Tesla is clearly disadvantaged against companies with unionized labor like Ford and GM.

The House version gives unionized companies a $4,500 advantage, while the Senate version gives unionized companies a $2,500 advantage over Tesla.

We believe this to be unfair since Tesla leads the way in selling the most number of EVs and is poised to win the autonomous driving revolution.

7. However, Tesla may still outperform its competitors, which is why ETFs like $VCAR may benefit from the tax credit.

Tesla sold 500,000 EVs in 2020 in the U.S., while GM sold 26,552 EVs, and Ford sold 3(!) EVs (and an unknown number of hybrids). In the first six months of 2021, Ford sold 12,975 EVs, GM sold 20,288 EVs, while Tesla sold 386,161 EVs. The numbers are not even close, while Tesla continues to grow. We see potential upside with Tesla not only with sales growth, but with its imminent release of Full-Self Driving (FSD), hence our options based strategy in our conveniently packaged ETF $VCAR.
 
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RD3P

Member
Sep 2, 2021
156
94
Ohio
I haven't ordered yet still because of this dumb bill, but some questions may be answered enough...

1. With the 200,000 vehicle cap removed, Tesla cars sold after May 24, 2021 would be eligible for a $7,500 credit.

This is the standard credit of $7,500. Any of the enhanced credits for cars assembled in the United States and/or assembled by union labor would not take effect until 2022.

Do you also read this as, if the bill gets passed ANY EV purchased after May 24, 2021 will get the $7500 tax credit REGARDLESS of the purchase price?

2. Most Tesla cars sold starting on January 1, 2022 would be eligible for an $8,000 or $10,000 credit.

  • All versions of the Model 3 would qualify - Not sure about this, Model 3 Performance starts at $56,990
If you purchase a Model 3 Performance in 2022 you could potentially get no incentive as the starting MSRP is too high?
 

Spidey616

Member
May 31, 2021
200
240
Morgantown WV
15226C13-C745-41CF-8E0D-9090DF94E019.jpeg
That’s not the current proposed legislation, the article cites info from May that is out of date compared to current proposals. The current legislation seems follow the image I’ll embed below. In this it is not retroactive.
 

orion2001

Member
Apr 14, 2021
295
761
NC
Lol, my April order for the MY LR is still on hold as I never completed the "next steps" while I wait for all of this to be fleshed out. I have a price locked in that is $3K below current prices, so if they actually pass this reconciliation bill (feels like a bigger and bigger IF with every passing day) I will definitely be moving ahead with my order.

If it gets scuppered, despite the temptation to just go ahead and order anyways, I might just swallow the $100 loss and wait out the upgrade to an EV for another few years. At non-rebate price, I'd rather wait a couple years for 4680 batteries (hopefully) and maybe a 400+ mile range MY now that Lucid is going to be releasing a 500+ mile range EV.
 

Hurricane4911

IT Guy From 1980-2013, Retired
Jul 29, 2021
341
428
Tampa
For us 2021 EV pioneers, we've been screwed by both sides of the aisle.

Not a deal killer for me, but annoyed none the less that it's taken this friggen long. Losing the May 24 retroactive date was nasty. Not certain, but we might still be able to capture tax credits on the home charger cost, and US battery requirement.

On a positive note,
It will be most satisfying watching EV sales achieve jaw dropping sales once this Frankenstein of a EV tax credit provision gets passed.
 
Last edited:

rishid

Member
Jul 20, 2021
99
94
MA
I had put my order on hold like 5 days before delivery (Sept 26) in order to see if this bill was going to pass. My hold just released and new EDD of March 16.... ouch. I guess your spot in the queue is reset if you put your order on hold (guy on the phone definitely said you would get back into front of queue).
 

RD3P

Member
Sep 2, 2021
156
94
Ohio
I had put my order on hold like 5 days before delivery (Sept 26) in order to see if this bill was going to pass. My hold just released and new EDD of March 16.... ouch. I guess your spot in the queue is reset if you put your order on hold (guy on the phone definitely said you would get back into front of queue).
That sucks! That is also what I am trying to avoid. I don't think it's in the cards for me anyway though. Everywhere I read I find the $55k max for sedans. Model 3 Performance is $1,990 over that :/ Delivery on that though is November per the website. I may hold off and check daily to see when it hits January and then order. I don't want to wait too long and it pass then the que floods.
 

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