Reuters: Sales of the Model S through May were 8,850

[FredTMC]

I've always found it baffling that the analysts don't just look here. TMC is an awesome resource for waitlist and delivery status.

Problem is there are gaps in the VINs used. Makes it hard to assess the number of cars produced in Q2.

 

[Kaivball]

The author doesn't realize that it is actually two types of people buying this car:

1. The aforementioned well to do crowd that could easily or already has bought a Ferrari. These people cross shopped from a Panamera, Quattroporte and M5. Environmental and gas mileage consideration were down the list.

But the other group does have the environment and gas mileage as their main concern. They are existing Leaf, Prius andVolt owners that are stretching beyond what they thought was possible to get into the Model S.

We clearly have both groups represented here at TMC.


PS: yes, yes, some belong to both groups...

 

[BryanW]

The author doesn't realize that it is actually two types of people buying this car:

1. The aforementioned well to do crowd that could easily or already has bought a Ferrari. These people cross shopped from a Panamera, Quattroporte and M5. Environmental and gas mileage consideration were down the list.

But the other group does have the environment and gas mileage as their main concern. They are existing Leaf, Prius andVolt owners that are stretching beyond what they thought was possible to get into the Model S.

We clearly have both groups represented here at TMC.


PS: yes, yes, some belong to both groups...

I think one of Tesla's success in disrupting the market is that the Model S appeals to different people for many different reasons. For example, the reason I and a friend at work bought Model S's is different from either of these 2 mentioned groups. Neither of us could easily buy a Ferrari, and neither of us has shopped for any of the cars mentioned. My car prior to getting a Tesla (Roadster, then Model S) was a Subaru Outback, a car I still love. His was a Toyota FJ. The Model S is simply an awesome car for so many reasons. So, while we wouldn't bother looking at a Panamera, Quattroporte, M5, Leaf, Prius, or Volt, we were definitely in for the Model S, love our cars, and will never look back. The advantages of the Model S and driving electric are manifold, so the reasons for getting a Model S are manifold.

I believe this is giving Tesla's competitors trouble, because they want to believe that only Ferrari owners and rich greenies are getting Model S's, but that is simply not true. People who test drive the Model S and talk to their friends who own a Model S are getting Model S's. For each Model S sold, there is an awesome story by an excited owner, and those stories are different.

 

[richkae]

The author doesn't realize that it is actually two types of people buying this car:

1. The aforementioned well to do crowd that could easily or already has bought a Ferrari. These people cross shopped from a Panamera, Quattroporte and M5. Environmental and gas mileage consideration were down the list.

But the other group does have the environment and gas mileage as their main concern. They are existing Leaf, Prius andVolt owners that are stretching beyond what they thought was possible to get into the Model S.

We clearly have both groups represented here at TMC.


PS: yes, yes, some belong to both groups...

I can identify a third group. Technophiles. The tiny software company I work for has 5 or 6 Model S owners, and likely more soon. A lot of the owners wouldn't consider a Panamera or Maserati or other expensive luxury car - nor would they look twice at a Prius. The Model S is like the latest smartphone, tablet, SSD, or other software or hardware gadget.

 

[riceuguy]

No one said their estimate was correct

It is probably perfectly accurate. They sold (from an accounting standpoint) just under 4k cars last year, and VINs as of end of ​May were around 13,000. That puts it at around 9k cars through May. This is neither good nor bad news; it's right on track. Now, it has nothing to do with normal new car sales, for the period, because all of these cars were pre-sold in 2012. We have no idea what the number of cars sold in the traditional sense are during that period. Since they stopped giving out reservation numbers, we just don't know. The second article talks about 35,000 cars being sold in 2013, but since they are production constrained at a bit over 20k cars per year right now, I'm not sure how they get that estimate. Blah.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

It is probably perfectly accurate. They sold (from an accounting standpoint) just under 4k cars last year, and VINs as of end of ​May were around 13,000. That puts it at around 9k cars through May. This is neither good nor bad news; it's right on track. Now, it has nothing to do with normal new car sales, for the period, because all of these cars were pre-sold in 2012. We have no idea what the number of cars sold in the traditional sense are during that period. Since they stopped giving out reservation numbers, we just don't know. The second article talks about 35,000 cars being sold in 2013, but since they are production constrained at a bit over 20k cars per year right now, I'm not sure how they get that estimate. Blah.

Actually, no the numbers are better than that - they only sold 2,650 Model S's last year, not 4000. From the annual report: "As of December 31, 2012, we have produced over 3,100 Model S vehicles and delivered approximately 2,650." A figure of 4000 cars sold in 2012 could only be right if you include sales of the remaining Roadster inventory.

 

[brianman]

Its mentioned in the April 2013 Dashboard:
April 2013 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

That's not citing a source. That's describing their SWAGs. I could do the same thing with TMC posts chosen at random and be likely better supported than their non-sourced data.

I guess the trick is to come up with an exact sounding number like 8850 so that people think you have real data, whereas if you say "mid-to-upper 8xxx" it sounds like you're... well... estimating/guessing.

Or am I missing something?

If not, I think we're due for an adjusted thread title:
hybridcars.com reports 8850 estimate

- - - Updated - - -

And by that I mean a Ferrari Enzo. What a noisy, polluting, gas guzzling, hugely impractical, absolutely magnificent work of art.

I like what you did there.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Problem is there are gaps in the VINs used. Makes it hard to assess the number of cars produced in Q2.

I believe that there is logical explanation for "gaps" in VIN numbers in delivered cars, and it is actually possible to ascertain how many cars will be delivered in Q2 using the VIN data posted at TMC.

2Q 2013 Model S Deliveries Potential Surprise - Page 7