jelloslug
Active Member
My job involves me with many automotive manufacturers. The amount of partially finished cars that are just "recycled" is amazing sometimes.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I have this growing feeling that Tesla is doing a very un-Tesla like operation where the Model 3 is concerned, and has kept under wraps that they are further along than most of the reported milestones and timeline would suggest.
If true, the stock market bears are going to have a baad day.
If true, the stock market bears are going to have a baad day.
I've had this crazy idea in my head that the July timeline was actually a conservative target.
Like I said, crazy.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Yeah, crazy is right. The official manufacturer deadline is July, and they are only as fast as the slowest supplier. Assuming no major delays I'm thinking August/September at the earliest with some hiccups, a slowdown to fix any issues, and then full speed ahead. Elon's S curve.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
How many people bothered to read the sources ?
Tesla is shutting down production to modify the painting section. That is not equivalent to putting up the Model 3 production line.
Tesla is shutting down production to modify the painting section. That is not equivalent to putting up the Model 3 production line.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I wonder if this is to comply with LAER standards.... They were supposed to have the equipment to do 500,000 cars in that paint shop at the end of 2015.
I hope you are right. But Elon Musk seems to be generally overly optimistic on time lines. So I'm not going to get my hopes up for an early delivery date. The bears will have a bad day when the Model 3 turns out to be as huge a success as I expect it to be. But that might come a bit later than all of us would like.
A friend of mine has a term for this: Chrono-optimism.
I'll be delighted if I have my Model 3 before the start of next winter. Of course I'll be even more delighted if I get it this summer.
Foxhound199
Member
I think the best omen/teaser was that after countless presentations that got underway way later than advertised, the Model 3 reveal began precisely on time. I actually don't think that was a coincidence.
Swampgator
Active Member
Very simple. Look for Tesla's guidance as to deliveries in 2017. Every unit over 100K is a model 3.
Everyone keeps saying Tesla is always wildly off on their delivery projections, but truth is they are almost always within 10%.
If tomorrow they guide for 150K you can bet they will deliver at least 35K Model 3s by year end.
Everyone keeps saying Tesla is always wildly off on their delivery projections, but truth is they are almost always within 10%.
If tomorrow they guide for 150K you can bet they will deliver at least 35K Model 3s by year end.
That is correct, but as I understood this, they should modify the painting section *to prepare for the Model 3*. So it is a part of the Model 3 production line(s). And the production lines for S+X (that is why they are down). And was it not some talk about some presses for the Model 3 line(s)? Parts of the lines for Model 3 should from what I have read be in place already. I do not know anything about how much is missing before at least one production line could be ready for pilot production.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
That was published a week ago, but you can deny the possibility that it might be taken yesterday.
The article makes it quite clear that the intent was to setup a pre-production line. It wasn't just the paint shop.
"If Tesla succeeds in starting pilot production of the sedan at its factory in Fremont, California on Feb. 20, as people familiar with the matter told Reuters, the company would be able to share the news with shareholders two days later when it reports fourth-quarter results and better answer any questions about the Model 3 rollout."
I think the paint shop (and some retooling) is the only part Tesla has publicly confirmed.
brucet999
Active Member
Sloppy reporting. The plant shutdown started on Feb 20, with work to include expanding the paint shop to handle M3 production, not pilot production. It makes sense to share the paint shop among the three models, but other parts of the line would be separate, so there would not be any need to halt s, x production for installation, adjustment and testing of M3 assembly robots, stamping mills, aluminum forging equipment, etc.
