But wouldn’t that mean they’re intentionally excluding six months worth of model 3 buyers from ever upgrading to FSD?
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RIP FSD
- Thread starter Ezri10
- Start date
But wouldn’t that mean they’re intentionally excluding six months worth of model 3 buyers from ever upgrading to FSD?
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
I was told as long as long as you have 2.0 and EA its a download. Now they are saying its a chip. A chip is no big deal. No if its harware like wiring and more sensors there are going to beca lot of pissed off people.
I don't think so -- but it does provide flexibility on timing, cost, etc. They will probably sell ~200K cars in the next six months -- a swarm of customers demanding an instant hardware upgrade at the same time (on top of existing owners) would be a logistical nightmare.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Can something that never existed actually Rest In Peace?
/philosoraptor
/philosoraptor
I wouldn't rule out upgrading.
My take on it is as follows.
The FSD buyers will get the new drive computer upgrade for free. The new drive computer will offer exit-to-exit Level 3 driving within the next 12 months.
The people who didn't get the FSD will get the option of upgrading to the new drive computer for a cool $5K.
As time goes on Tesla/Elon will want everyone to forget about the whole FSD promise, and for it to quietly go away.
Over time they'll slowly add things to new models that's required for L4/L5 driving. Where they'll do it in lock step with regulatory requirements, and what technology is offered at the time.
So think of it as a lot more incremental like a mature company would do.
They've just removed the whole FSD description from their website (where they described all those FSD feature before). They also removed detailed feature description for EAP.
I have purchased FSD back in June. If they are not going to implement it, I guess I want my money back. But I would still preffer FSD...
I have purchased FSD back in June. If they are not going to implement it, I guess I want my money back. But I would still preffer FSD...
That was the case until about 3 months ago when they announced details about the new computer upgrade that would be available for all 2.0 and 2.5 hardware vehicles: Tesla claims to have ‘world’s most advanced computer for autonomous driving’ with Autopilot 3.0 update coming next year
It’s just a drop in replacement for the existing autopilot computer. It will use the same cameras and sensors that are already on the car.
Hardware is cheap in comparison to the software development that needs to happen to make FSD a reality.
I seriously don't buy the "reduce confusion" line for a single second. Why would Tesla cut off what is essentially a free loan? Here's my math on this...
They must have a very good reason to not want an extra ~5% on the sale price of the car and the simple calculation would essentially then be this:
IF: (Weighted Cost of Capital (% interest) x Quantity of Money they received from FSD pre-orders) < (expected cost of replacing ~15K computers) THEN cancel FSD pre-orders because you can just get that money from other fundraising sources and don't need the pre-order headaches.
It's very likely Elon can raise the $20-50 million they are "losing" from cancelling FSD pre-orders with a simple debt or equity raise and end up "paying" much less than what the hardware replacement cost (labor + service opportunity cost!) would be.
Example: 2 hours to install new computer @ $150/hr burden rate is about $300 per car on a $3K loan. So that means Tesla is essentially paying ~10% for us to loan them the money for FSD upgrade (and that's a "6 month" loan!). They could definitely beat this with another funding source (look at Chinese Gigafactory for example).
EDIT: Time estimate for computer swap changed to 2 hours, still not a cheap loan!
They must have a very good reason to not want an extra ~5% on the sale price of the car and the simple calculation would essentially then be this:
IF: (Weighted Cost of Capital (% interest) x Quantity of Money they received from FSD pre-orders) < (expected cost of replacing ~15K computers) THEN cancel FSD pre-orders because you can just get that money from other fundraising sources and don't need the pre-order headaches.
It's very likely Elon can raise the $20-50 million they are "losing" from cancelling FSD pre-orders with a simple debt or equity raise and end up "paying" much less than what the hardware replacement cost (labor + service opportunity cost!) would be.
Example: 2 hours to install new computer @ $150/hr burden rate is about $300 per car on a $3K loan. So that means Tesla is essentially paying ~10% for us to loan them the money for FSD upgrade (and that's a "6 month" loan!). They could definitely beat this with another funding source (look at Chinese Gigafactory for example).
EDIT: Time estimate for computer swap changed to 2 hours, still not a cheap loan!
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Its supposed to be a simple swap. Not 5 hours.
I do agree that they didn't want the hassle and chaos of upgrading so many cars. They will probably offer it at a steep price for those who didn't purchase FSD
I do agree that they didn't want the hassle and chaos of upgrading so many cars. They will probably offer it at a steep price for those who didn't purchase FSD
I took that time estimate from a Model 3 owner who had his computer replaced by a mobile tech after having Autopilot problems, it takes a few hours to remove and replace the unit and then 1-2 more for reprogramming. The post was on FB, ill try to find it.
EDIT: Ok found the post, it was 2 hours and not 5 - i've updated my first post.
Kant.Ing
Member
Wish an option (with -$3,000 incentive) to totally remove the AP hardware, you know, I even want manual shift on the Performance version. 
Typical Tesla move. Back then they showed AP1 was capable of advanced summoning in private roads on their website. When I got my previous AP1 MX I was looking for that info and it was no where to be found. I then learned that when Tesla wants to abandon development of a feature they simply remove all references to said feature.
Wasn't musk talking about some FSD only features happening soon? Musk has some 'xplaining to do.
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
He’s said a lot of things. He also doesn’t explain words he couldn’t keep. “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely”. Yea they removed FSD 6 months after 6 months!
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