Roadster's Future

[Doug_G]

Of course everything has it's analyst price point...they may offer different options for different prices..it seems very TESLA to give a very affordable upgrade but for $k more add the option for supercharging...just my observation which I resonate with BTW

I don't think it makes much financial sense. What percentage of Roadster owners would upgrade right away just to get Supercharger access? IIRC the original pack costs $38,000 to replace, and they might charge the same for the new pack just because they can. At best it would cost half as much.

Tom Saxton of Plug-in America just released data showing that a typical Roadster pack will be down only 15-20% after 100,000 miles. His data also showed that the average Roadster was driven 10,000 miles a year (this could well be high due to selection bias). So it's entirely possible - if not likely - that most Roadster packs will last 10 years. Most people will probably wait until their packs die, and I wouldn't be surprised if half the fleet never got upgraded.

It will cost millions to engineer the new pack. If they change the weight they might need to do crash testing. Plus it's a distraction from their primary goal of moving Model S, Model X, and Gen III forward.

So my prediction is that we'll get a new, higher performance pack, and nothing else.

 

[kilpatds]

I think that how Tesla treats the older owners is going to become more and more important as they move down market. If my "normal" price for a car is $50k, and you want me to pay $100k for a comparable-on-the-axis-I-care-about car (for me, Perf and long-distance driving), I'm gonna be really worried about longevity. And seeing Roadster owners missing out on the driving infrastructure doesn't help. I think supercharging ability is more important than increased range or power ... even if it's never used. Because it tells a story of long-term support, and a consistent long term vision.

(My current car is a 'vette. The MS is just too large for my tastes. I've been wondering if a roadster would work for me... but the battery situation makes me very hesitant.)

 

[Bobfitz1]

It's with great trepidation that I dare to disagree with one of Doug_G's points!

As advanced as Tesla's engineering chops have become, my uneducated guess is they could put the Model S cells into Roadster pack and find a way to add the direct current Supercharger wiring route needed to bypass the normal home/HPC lines for less than millions. I'd think it would not be cost attractive to Roadster owners until Gen III is out and cost of cells is 3 - 4 years cheaper than now. By then more Roadsters will have more miles on them and a replacement pack for 15K that allows Supercharging and is warranted for several years would appeal to enough owners to justify the engineering investment. I think Tesla might well make a point of showing they robustly support earlier models. That might lead them to take this path even if they don't expect to make a direct dollar profit by doing it.

 

[ChadS]

Yeah, Tesla has a timing problem here that puts them in a lose-lose situation. People are going to worry about the lack of replacement Roadster packs until they create (and price) one, so they feel pressure to get one done. But very few owners will really need (or even want, if it's a fairly modest evolution as I surmise) one for quite a while, and the longer they wait the cheaper and better the replacement will be - and the easier it will be for Tesla to spare the resources to do the work.

I think a partial solution is to create another "replacement battery pre-purchase" plan. Don't build the batteries yet - they aren't needed, and will be cheaper and better if they wait - but pre-announce a price that people can buy it for. They can announce a future price that's lower than they can build the packs for now, especially if it's really pre-purchase and they get to hold on to money in the meantime. As with the old plan, they can adjust the price depending on when it is redeemed. Even people that don't buy the plan will likely be comforted by Tesla saying when the packs will be available and given some pricing hints. This should help with resale values directly (I am pretty confident that concern about the current $38k replacement cost is dragging them down), and indirectly because more owners may want to hold on to their cars.

Of course there will still be issues with that, like what will the capacity of the pack be (which they won't know yet)...

 

[Doug_G]

It's with great trepidation that I dare to disagree with one of Doug_G's points!

As advanced as Tesla's engineering chops have become, my uneducated guess is they could put the Model S cells into Roadster pack and find a way to add the direct current Supercharger wiring route needed to bypass the normal home/HPC lines for less than millions. I'd think it would not be cost attractive to Roadster owners until Gen III is out and cost of cells is 3 - 4 years cheaper than now. By then more Roadsters will have more miles on them and a replacement pack for 15K that allows Supercharging and is warranted for several years would appeal to enough owners to justify the engineering investment. I think Tesla might well make a point of showing they robustly support earlier models. That might lead them to take this path even if they don't expect to make a direct dollar profit by doing it.

You're quite allowed to disagree!!!

Okay, so let's assume they just do the minimum. They source more modern off-the-shelf Panasonic 18650 cells, having similar weight, the same voltage, and higher Ah capacity. Perhaps the 2.9 Ah cells. They use the existing pack design as-is. They reprogram the battery management system, touchscreen firmware, PEM, etc. They don't try to draw any extra power from the pack, keeping the power output identical to the original. They still have to do some work to validate the pack design, ensure the safety system is still good with the higher energy density, etc. This would produce a pack with the same basic performance properties but with perhaps 32% greater range. Say 315 ideal miles.

As I understand it the Roadster packs were fairly labor intensive to build. The new packs wouldn't benefit from many of the cost reductions implemented for Model S. But the raw batteries would probably be a bit less expensive. But they have to amortize the engineering effort over fewer sales.

They'd still have to commit a fair bit of engineering resources to the project, but it would have more limited scope. But the cars would now have range comparable to Model S.

I'm still going to disagree about Supercharging. That will require a bunch of additional engineering, some major rewiring, etc. It's not just a dumb plug either - there are digital communications between the car and Supercharger, and the Roadster isn't set up to do that. I really doubt they're going to do it.

ChadS' idea is an interesting one...

 

[mnx]

I really hope that they build a lighter pack with similar range as that is what I hope they do for the Model S down the road. Also a roadster with increased performance due to lighter wait sounds very compelling!

 

[Timbrewer]

I like these kinds of threads..it's like a next gen iphone discussion on steroids It all sounds awesome because I already thought the roadster had really good range and a charging timeline that could support a 2-day road trip of 600 miles with an overnight stay and a couple of plug-in stops each day...waiting for my roadster delivery so I can test out my drive from Annapolis to Mt Washington NH...

OK back to this topic...I do agree that TESLA would not sell enough of the supercharger roadster upgrades to break even...but there may be other economics at work with a decision to offer it like having a more commonality for the service department and parts department. And as kilpatds mentions above there's an opportunity to do something for the early adopters and the CPO intro-crowd that would bring them further into the TESLA community and perhaps sell some Model Xs to that group in the process. People are amazed when they hear that the supercharging is free for the life of the model S, it's gets their gears turning. What a great story it would be to have potential owners see TESLA take care of a previous gen drive system so they could also get free supercharging for life of their car! I think that would sell more to a skeptical community unsure if this is a fad.

OK so all of this is fun to speculate about and though I'm not sure about the supercharging upgrade...I won't be stunned if TESLA offers it...because it does seem like a non-automotive industry move to pay things forward a bit...that's why I bought my Volt...because I felt GM was selling me more than I paid for...6 months later I am more certain of that than ever!

 

[DrTaras]

Any discussion or insights on this at Teslive?

Wait... when did you get a SECOND Roadster? Congrats!

My take on Teslive & the Roadster news was, how do I put this gently, Tesla does NOT have the Roadster on its 2013 radar and any 'announcements' that come in 2014 about the Roadster will be more window dressing than anything else. Of course I could be (& often am) wrong, but this is a matter of Roadster resources and will and I think that Tesla is (understandably) lacking on both.

 

[dhrivnak]

While Supercharging would be VERY nice i do not expect it. What Tesla could do for a modest cost would be to add an HPC or an 80 amp J1772 plug to the charging stations. It shows the older products WILL be supported into the future and the engineering is zilche and simple to add as the rest of the station is being built.

 

[Bobfitz1]

While Supercharging would be VERY nice i do not expect it. What Tesla could do for a modest cost would be to add an HPC or an 80 amp J1772 plug to the charging stations. It shows the older products WILL be supported into the future and the engineering is zilche and simple to add as the rest of the station is being built.

I agree. Adding an HPC to most or all Supercharger locations was one thing I mentioned when I asked Elon at Teslive if Tesla would continue to do modest things for the Roadster owner base.

 

[wycolo]

> What Tesla could do for a modest cost would be to add an HPC or an 80 amp J1772 plug to the charging stations. [dhrivnak]

But make that GPS enabled so only for Roadsters.

The original Roadster batteries could last a long long time so might be premature to develop replacements now.
--

 

[ipdamages]

I agree. Adding an HPC to most or all Supercharger locations was one thing I mentioned when I asked Elon at Teslive if Tesla would continue to do modest things for the Roadster owner base.

And what was his response (about supercharging/charging at supercharger stations, as well as about modest things and support)? I've heard the "old news" was reiterated (something nice in 2014), but I find it surprising that there was no new information shared/obtained.

 

[Bobfitz1]

And what was his response (about supercharging/charging at supercharger stations, as well as about modest things and support)? I've heard the "old news" was reiterated (something nice in 2014), but I find it surprising that there was no new information shared/obtained.

Elon did not comment yes or no about adding HPCs to Supercharger locations. I'd heard some comments that he's not keen to add one right where the SCs stand. Some Roadster owners within Tesla are hoping some locations will get one added nearby the Model S slots. I'm hoping that with this bit of polite encouragement, he'll allow some of that. My feeling was that if individual Roadster enhancements make sense and aren't resource intensive, they may get done to appease the early adopters. But don't expect anything that will take much in dollars or time away from MS, MX and Gen III.

 

[Warrenbonz]

I think that how Tesla treats the older owners is going to become more and more important as they move down market. If my "normal" price for a car is $50k, and you want me to pay $100k for a comparable-on-the-axis-I-care-about car (for me, Perf and long-distance driving), I'm gonna be really worried about longevity. And seeing Roadster owners missing out on the driving infrastructure doesn't help. I think supercharging ability is more important than increased range or power ... even if it's never used. Because it tells a story of long-term support, and a consistent long term vision.

(My current car is a 'vette. The MS is just too large for my tastes. I've been wondering if a roadster would work for me... but the battery situation makes me very hesitant.)

I had a 2000 vette that I ordered new and thought I would keep forever. Then I got a Roadster . After not driving the vette for a couple of months (it was in my brother's garage 200 miles away) I took my old friend for a drive. I never thought I could write such a thing but it felt a bit slow and loose in the steering after driving the Roadster for a couple of months. Soon thereafter I sold my beautiful vette to a lucky new owner and haven't regretted it for a second. The vette was fun for me but the Roadster is at a whole other level of fun. Most fun car I ever drove (and I have a model S performance as well ). I was worried about the batteries at first as well, now I am not concerned. For me supercharging my roadster would be nice but not vital. I would be happy with 70amp chargers at the supercharges for roadsters to use. I use a Model S for longer drives or my wife's ICE if supercharging isn't available on our route.

Have you driven a Roadster yet?

I agree with those that think it is important for Tesla to show that they take care of their original Roadster customers. I believe that the amount of great press Tesla would receive from offering a replacement battery to Roadster owners that increases the range and the performance of the car at a price that is considerably less than the naysayers have been saying it would cost would be well worth any money Tesla might leave on the table by not charging as much as they might otherwise. I shared this thought with George Blankenship at the Teslive party at the Tesla factory and he enthusiastically agreed. He said that he didn't know what Elon had in mind but that Elon did have something special in store for Roadster owners in 2014.

 

[hcsharp]

...
I agree with those that think it is important for Tesla to show that they take care of their original Roadster customers. I believe that the amount of great press Tesla would receive from offering a replacement battery to Roadster owners that increases the range and the performance of the car at a price that is considerably less than the naysayers have been saying it would cost would be well worth any money Tesla might leave on the table by not charging as much as they might otherwise. I shared this thought with George Blankenship at the Teslive party at the Tesla factory and he enthusiastically agreed. He said that he didn't know what Elon had in mind but that Elon did have something special in store for Roadster owners in 2014.

If George agreed that's great news. Elon has a lot of respect for what George thinks. Doesn't mean it will happen... but it's good news.

 

[ViperDoc]

Roadster support

If George agreed that's great news. Elon has a lot of respect for what George thinks. Doesn't mean it will happen... but it's good news.

Well I sure hope support continues, but my recent experience worries me a little. My car developed a "POWERTRAIN PROBLEM, SERVICE REQUIRED" error. They believe it is probably a 400v transformer (or something) that has gone bad, but in any case, I can't charge it so can't drive it. For almost 2 weeks, I have been told that the part is backordered, none can be found and the "company that rebuilds them" has been "off for a month or something". (That is really what I was told in an email). I have been without my primary vehicle for a couple of weeks, and had we not had an extra car (wife's old RAV4), I would be renting. I figured that they would keep enough parts around to repair Roadsters (indeed, I thought the government required them to be able to repair them for at least 10 years). I bought the extended warranty on the Roadster when it was new (and bought the extended warranty and service contracts on the Model S for 8 years), but warranties don't help you if they can't find parts to repair you. I hope they get their act together on this one. If you can't fix a 2 year old car, how do you expect to be able to handle it at the 6 year mark?

 

[DrTaras]

I can't charge it so can't drive it. For almost 2 weeks,
indeed, I thought the government required them to be able to repair them for at least 10 years

I'm sorry to hear about this.
I concur; that is what I thought as well

 

[tdevince]

... but in any case, I can't charge it so can't drive it. For almost 2 weeks, I have been told that the part is backordered, none can be found and the "company that rebuilds them" has been "off for a month or something"...

Hopefully, they can fix it before your battery bricks itself.

 

[Doug_G]

Hopefully, they can fix it before your battery bricks itself.

That would take a very long time. Worst-case scenario is you pull the pack fuse.

 

[tdevince]

That would take a very long time....

Agreed, so long as weeks don't turn to months and the SOC when the problem surfaced wasn't low.