Given the beta making an appearance at long last, I've rethought my expected timetable and have come up with the following Model X release schedule.
Early/Mid April - Production Reveal
This allows Tesla all of Q1 to sell Model S without the distraction of Model X looming on the horizon. The P85D was revealed shortly after the end of a quarter, so this seems like a timing Tesla is comfortable with. With the amount of work they did to camouflage the beta, they can comfortably test in public for a couple more months without needing to do a full reveal.
Early/Mid May - Design Studio Release
Timed to coincide with the Q1 earnings release and conference call, Tesla announces this milestone in Model X development as a further sign it remains on schedule.
Early/Mid August - Production Begins
After several months of testing their production line, the first customer ordered Model Xes roll down the production line. Production starts out at about 100 units the first week and adds an additional 100 units each week over the course of a month so that all 1,200 U.S. Signatures are built by the end of Q3.
September - Signature Deliveries
Customer deliveries start around Labor Day and a push is made to get as many of the U.S. Signatures as possible delivered by the end of September.
October-December - Production Continues
Over the last 3 months of the year, Model X production gradually increases from 500 to 1000 units a week. LHD European Signatures are built for delivery by the end of 2015, but the bulk of the remaining units are U.S. production models. Approximately 8,000 U.S. production units are built and delivered by the end of 2015.
I admit the production numbers may sound a bit aggressive to some, but Tesla has indicated they will be ramping up much faster with Model X than they did with Model S. Between their desire to reach an annualized production rate of 100,000 units by the end of 2015 and the backlog of higher valued Model X orders to work through, these numbers seem reasonable to me.