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Discussion in 'Model S' started by AnxietyRanger, Dec 29, 2017.
As the year 2018 is drawing to a close, time to re-cap where we are on the mighty Tesla rumor watch:
First a comment on the CCS, where we still don't know much. The European demonstrator fleet has been mostly (entirely?) U.S. cars and no test drives are available yet either (beyond a PR video: Tesla surprises European owners with Model 3 test drives) so what little we know of this move comes from Tesla. We know Model 3's get CCS and Superchargers get dual connector cables. Basically we were told just enough so that Model 3 buyers in Europe know what they are buying. First European Model 3 deliveries are to be expected around February according to what Tesla tells to people ordering before the year's end.
Why is this relevant you might ask. Well, it brings me to my first forward-looking point which is Supercharger V3. We remember from summer that Tesla said Supercharger V3 deployment is being planned around "the end of the year" and that it will be"‘zombie apocalypse-proof" (Tesla pushes Supercharger V3 to ‘end of the year’, says it will be ‘zombie apocalypse-proof’). The latter possibly being a reference to solar and PowerPacks as Elon tweeted in 2016: "There are some installed already, but full rollout really needs Supercharger V3 and Powerpack V2, plus SolarCity. Pieces now in place."
So the pieces for Supercharger V3 are now in place. How literally? We know from the first European dual connector Supercharger "tear down" that the dual connector connection was in fact already there, just waiting to be deployed (First look at Tesla’s new dual connector CCS Supercharger). Tesla has been planning this move for quite a while now. Now, it would be easy to overlook all this as merely Tesla preparing for a Europe where CCS has won over other connectors (legally and market-wise), and that certainly is true in itself, but I think that would be a limited view. I think all this is in preparation of the Supercharger V3. (Disclaimer: It is still possible that the dual cable prep in Europe is technologically separate though and not really representative of V3, but it all fits the same plan.)
There is another bit of news, which is that Tesla is selling all their cars, including demonstrators, by the end of the year (Tesla is releasing its fleet vehicles for sale to help deliveries before tax credit phase-out). Now, this may simply be related to the U.S. tax-credits phase-out, but it could also be in preparation for a fleet-wide upgrade of some sort (Q3/2016 never forget!). While Tesla probably could roll over the CCS launch in Europe with a nod towards a CCS adapter for existing Model S/X without too much of a sales hit for Model S/X, I am not sure they can roll over to a potentially vastly superior Supercharger V3 without introducing that feature immediately also in Model S/X. This might well mean they will have to introduce an updated connector in Model S/X as well (just in Europe or also elsewhere?).
This brings me to my speculation. Tesla seems to be lined up to introduce Supercharger V3 with improved charging specs in early 2019. This may or may not require new types of connectors and/or batteries to be supported, depending on the market. There is also the existing speculation on 2170 batteries earlier in this thread and in other threads, but I am not sure if introducing a new battery pack in Model S/X can happen simultaneously, so I am just putting this out there at this time as noting past speculation and analysis:
Second thing is the Model S/X refresh. No matter all of Tesla's Model S/X will always be the best bravado a year or so ago, it is evident Model S/X have fallen behind and Model 3 is the "Version 3" Tesla. Model S/X lack in interior details like coat hooks (Model S lacks even more like adjustable seat-belts), there is no interior camera in Model S/X, no software-adjustable airflow, the performance of the 2170 battery has been proven to be impressive and much more than just about cost-savings (as I predicted, I must humbly brag), in Europe Model S/X do not even have the latest charging connector anymore... even latest software features like V9 and TeslAtari just feel wrong on the Model S/X compared to how they feel on the Model 3 and its new steering wheel (and the most important detail of them all: Model 3 has touch-based Missile Command ). Tesla is moving to a brave new world and Model S/X are fast being left behind. They know this, of course, and I am sure there is a refresh planned.
Mind you, I am perfectly happy with my current Tesla as I ordered it back in 2016. I intend to keep it for quite a while still too. But would I buy the same car in 2019? No, it would feel antiquated as a new car purchase. I would not have bought the same car in 2018 either. I can not be alone with this sentiment. And again, I think Tesla knows it too.
There has been nothing new in the rumor department regarding the interior refresh, so I will just re-iterate by saying I believe it is coming, I have no idea when exactly and in these posts from the summer is pretty much what we do think we know and/or have heard: Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD #156
As the third point, fittingly, we come around to the Autopilot HW3, which is a topic heating up with Tesla's internal sales efforts: Tesla launches new incentives for employees to buy cars and get on Autopilot Hardware 3 test program We have discussed what HW3 is and isn't a lot. For me, most of the speculations of mine quoted below still stand, so I will merely update the thread on where I think things are today.
I think we are most in agreement that NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) pretty much has maxed out what the AP2 (and possible AP2.5) hardware is capable of. There will be tweaks and improvements for the existing fleet with merely EAP (or less) purchased of course (though like we recall from what happened to AP1 after AP2, probably in a diminishing fashion), but I think as far as new features go, that is probably the extent of it for the current Nvidia based computers. NOA will eventually have to come to other markets than the U.S. of course, but that's about it. How Elon thought in early 2017 that they'd have FSD features on the original hardware by summer 2017, I guess we'll never know.
But as we do know, Tesla has had internal chip development for quite a while and clearly needs HW3 to continue their development of Autopilot beyond EAP. Their own chip also probably allows for some cost-savings over time. So now they have an incentive to get that hardware into new cars as fast as possible. Installing it on employee vehicle's, existing product range no less, and other info from the autumn suggets the actual hardware is quickly getting there. What this says to me is that, at least in theory, Tesla is already today able to fit HW3 into any AP2.5 Tesla at least. Could it still go through some hardware revisions before getting to market? Sure. But it also might not.
Another thing lighting a fire under Tesla's behind on this is the fact that all AP2.5 sales are sales that might result in retro-fitting obligations for a HW3 computer. It would make sense to get HW3 at least into new car production as soon as possible. So I can definitely see, completely separate from any interior refresh or Superchager V3/2170 battery speculation, HW3 computer hitting new car production in early 2019. It is a possiblity at least. This would allow Tesla to release first bits of their FSD related features (anything beyond EAP specs) on the market, which I am pretty sure they have at least somewhat completely by now, but are simply unable to launch. For older cars this hardware could of course appear only later, which might create interesting friction as the existing fleet could be left even more behind in the meanwhile.
As for the HUD, nothing new anywhere, so what I said in the summer still is my latest thinking. That said, the more time that passes on these old rumors, the more likely it is every plan has changed my times over since then. I still think a HUD used to be in the Model S/X and 3 refresh plan, but whether or not it still is, is a good question.
If I had to guess, here is the order in time and in probability which these things might appear, though some might well happen at the same time:
1st: Supercharger V3
3rd: 2170 battery in Model S/X
4th: Model S/X interior refresh
We shall see! Right @TexasEV @lunitiks @croman @verygreen @DocZ @MXWing @wk057 @ohmman @bonnie @vandacca and the rest?
Have a great New Year all my friends on TMC! Keep on speculating, keep on analyzing, keep on driving.
One comment; As Tesla is not selling FSD at the moment, they are not selling any new mandatory 2.5 to 3 upgrade cars.
You can still order FSD currently, just not via the website. They are still selling it. They just aren't advertising it. We just had it added to a new delivery a couple weeks ago.
I think Tesla will release a new Model S and X with CCS and 2170 battery around the same time as Supercharger v3. It would also make sense to switch to model 3 motors.
Ok, thanks for the information.
Based on what started showing up elsewhere I'd say we get hw3 in the next 6 month, in August 2019 at the latest.
To clarify, you can still order it via the website for a car that was already delivered. It just isn't on the website for new orders. For those, you just have to ask the Owner Advisor or another employee before delivery and they can easily add it to your order.
The images below show the current option to add FSD to a Model S or Model 3:
Very nice summary. I thought I had some insight last year about the Model S/X refresh but it seems that the pain of the model 3 was too much in 2018. I believe 2019 will mark significant forward progress for Tesla as they will now focus on multiple things at once.
I think the supercharger V3, HW3, and battery refreshes for the Model S/X are all needed ASAP. Tesla needs to recapture the excitement of new product announcements and execution, rather than constant headlines about production hell and Elon’s antics. Looking forward to 2019!
Let's hope I get a battery failure when the old ones are out of stock, and the new ones are rolling out as the only option
If I was in product development, I’d see selling a 2019 Model S/X to @AnxietyRanger as a personal challenge.
If that can be done, it’d be on the same level
of accomplishment as selling ice to an Eskimo.
I do love all your predictions and they make sense. I am wondering if also an exterior refresh is in the cards as well. While the S and X look pretty good, nothing says new generation than more than an exterior update.
There is another item that Tesla has to juggle on top of their current load which makes me wonder how they will manage it all Model Y.
Lastly, I wonder if they have completely abandoned FSD features on HW 2/2.5.
I imagine they could use the existing hw for at least the early releases to buy time for the hw3 refits.
Once EAP/FSD diverges in anyway, the Model 3 owners will be coming after Musk with pitchforks.
Every day a 2019 Model 3 does something a 2018 Model 3 cannot is going to be a nightmare to Tesla.
The don’t buy a Tesla if you don’t like innovation argument doesn’t work on the Model 3 base like it did on the “small production Model S and Model X runs.”
The 100+ thread on PUPgate and price drop thread proved that.
No Tesla owner prior to 2018 would ever have imagined that a $5,000 price drop would have generated 10,000 times the fury of the AP1 / AP2 switchover.
Most probably. Different chips, different code to work on those chips although they perhaps made an abstraction layer to make it work on both NVidia's chips and their own. Question is which features are FSD. Like roundabouts ,traffic lights and sign reading. Especially sign reading should be a part of EAP.
It should be able to to more on current hardware, like sign reading, roundabouts, traffic lights.
Why though? If they didn't order FSD, then they are not eligible.
Good point. To clarify:
EAP/FSD performance on a HW2.5 Model 3
EAP/FSD performance on a HW3 Model 3.
When those diverge, the former camp is going to be very upset, and voice it daily.
I would expect this to remain the plan (and I would not be surprised if the passage of time had added more revamps):
Rear lights getting a revamp would fit with a new CCS compatible charge port too... just saying...
Whilst I agree they are probably lessening their obligations with anti-selling the FSD option that way (hidden from the Design Studio), they still are producing cars where retrospective FSD upgrades can be purchased for afterwards, as they are AP 2.5 cars... (Unless they stop offering that, of course.)
I agree HW3 is "imminent". But to clarify: When you say "we", do you mean you and I as existing Tesla owners... or the new buyer?
Not quite. I take it that @MXWing is talking of the time before HW3 is retro-fitted into those 2018 Model 3's with the FSD option pre-purchased? New buyer that did not "loan" Tesla the money getting features before the older owner who pre-paid, just because they got HW3 hardware sooner from the factory...
That is indeed why it would make sense to start HW3 retrofits before HW3 ships from the factory in new cars (or at least before any HW3 dependent software ships), but let's be real, that is not how Tesla operates.
Right! We have seen this happen with the MCUs. Newer firmware has made the MCU 1 more laggy.
But on the EAP HW unit, I think it will be more like either the feature is there, or it isn't and I can't imagine that the feature set will be decided by the hardware within EAP spectre of functionality. It would be terrible optics.
What about late 2016 AP2.0 with paid FSD? The reason I bought FSD was to have “any necessary hardware or upgrades” be prepaid.
Or they will have to offer a very attractive program price to trade in for a functioning FSD vehicle for current owners. Yet another likely reason they stopped selling FSD.