Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

[lunitiks]

 

[AnxietyRanger]

As the year 2018 is drawing to a close, time to re-cap where we are on the mighty Tesla rumor watch:

First a comment on the CCS, where we still don't know much. The European demonstrator fleet has been mostly (entirely?) U.S. cars and no test drives are available yet either (beyond a PR video: Tesla surprises European owners with Model 3 test drives) so what little we know of this move comes from Tesla. We know Model 3's get CCS and Superchargers get dual connector cables. Basically we were told just enough so that Model 3 buyers in Europe know what they are buying. First European Model 3 deliveries are to be expected around February according to what Tesla tells to people ordering before the year's end.

Why is this relevant you might ask. Well, it brings me to my first forward-looking point which is Supercharger V3. We remember from summer that Tesla said Supercharger V3 deployment is being planned around "the end of the year" and that it will be"‘zombie apocalypse-proof" (Tesla pushes Supercharger V3 to ‘end of the year’, says it will be ‘zombie apocalypse-proof’). The latter possibly being a reference to solar and PowerPacks as Elon tweeted in 2016: "There are some installed already, but full rollout really needs Supercharger V3 and Powerpack V2, plus SolarCity. Pieces now in place."

So the pieces for Supercharger V3 are now in place. How literally? We know from the first European dual connector Supercharger "tear down" that the dual connector connection was in fact already there, just waiting to be deployed (First look at Tesla’s new dual connector CCS Supercharger). Tesla has been planning this move for quite a while now. Now, it would be easy to overlook all this as merely Tesla preparing for a Europe where CCS has won over other connectors (legally and market-wise), and that certainly is true in itself, but I think that would be a limited view. I think all this is in preparation of the Supercharger V3. (Disclaimer: It is still possible that the dual cable prep in Europe is technologically separate though and not really representative of V3, but it all fits the same plan.)

There is another bit of news, which is that Tesla is selling all their cars, including demonstrators, by the end of the year (Tesla is releasing its fleet vehicles for sale to help deliveries before tax credit phase-out). Now, this may simply be related to the U.S. tax-credits phase-out, but it could also be in preparation for a fleet-wide upgrade of some sort (Q3/2016 never forget!). While Tesla probably could roll over the CCS launch in Europe with a nod towards a CCS adapter for existing Model S/X without too much of a sales hit for Model S/X, I am not sure they can roll over to a potentially vastly superior Supercharger V3 without introducing that feature immediately also in Model S/X. This might well mean they will have to introduce an updated connector in Model S/X as well (just in Europe or also elsewhere?).

This brings me to my speculation. Tesla seems to be lined up to introduce Supercharger V3 with improved charging specs in early 2019. This may or may not require new types of connectors and/or batteries to be supported, depending on the market. There is also the existing speculation on 2170 batteries earlier in this thread and in other threads, but I am not sure if introducing a new battery pack in Model S/X can happen simultaneously, so I am just putting this out there at this time as noting past speculation and analysis:

4. Big battery. Looking beyond current car features and firmware hacking, there is the rumor of 130 kWh battery being tested in Model S or X with the speculation following that 21-70 cells might fit in the current pack dimensions in that configuration (see. e.g. 200 kWh new Roadster in a Model 3 sized car). There was also the past-year incident of 75 kWh cars shipping with 85 kWh, which might point to a plan boosting Model S/X battery sizes in general. Given the Gigafactory woes related to Model 3 21-70 batteries, In a curious case of potential trolling, a "P100D" Model 3 also appeared on TeslaFi recently. In the end that was merely a human cock-up, reminding us to keep on our rumor-mongering toes.

Second thing is the Model S/X refresh. No matter all of Tesla's Model S/X will always be the best bravado a year or so ago, it is evident Model S/X have fallen behind and Model 3 is the "Version 3" Tesla. Model S/X lack in interior details like coat hooks (Model S lacks even more like adjustable seat-belts), there is no interior camera in Model S/X, no software-adjustable airflow, the performance of the 2170 battery has been proven to be impressive and much more than just about cost-savings (as I predicted, I must humbly brag), in Europe Model S/X do not even have the latest charging connector anymore... even latest software features like V9 and TeslAtari just feel wrong on the Model S/X compared to how they feel on the Model 3 and its new steering wheel (and the most important detail of them all: Model 3 has touch-based Missile Command ). Tesla is moving to a brave new world and Model S/X are fast being left behind. They know this, of course, and I am sure there is a refresh planned.

Mind you, I am perfectly happy with my current Tesla as I ordered it back in 2016. I intend to keep it for quite a while still too. But would I buy the same car in 2019? No, it would feel antiquated as a new car purchase. I would not have bought the same car in 2018 either. I can not be alone with this sentiment. And again, I think Tesla knows it too.

There has been nothing new in the rumor department regarding the interior refresh, so I will just re-iterate by saying I believe it is coming, I have no idea when exactly and in these posts from the summer is pretty much what we do think we know and/or have heard: Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD #156

As the third point, fittingly, we come around to the Autopilot HW3, which is a topic heating up with Tesla's internal sales efforts: Tesla launches new incentives for employees to buy cars and get on Autopilot Hardware 3 test program We have discussed what HW3 is and isn't a lot. For me, most of the speculations of mine quoted below still stand, so I will merely update the thread on where I think things are today.

I think we are most in agreement that NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) pretty much has maxed out what the AP2 (and possible AP2.5) hardware is capable of. There will be tweaks and improvements for the existing fleet with merely EAP (or less) purchased of course (though like we recall from what happened to AP1 after AP2, probably in a diminishing fashion), but I think as far as new features go, that is probably the extent of it for the current Nvidia based computers. NOA will eventually have to come to other markets than the U.S. of course, but that's about it. How Elon thought in early 2017 that they'd have FSD features on the original hardware by summer 2017, I guess we'll never know.

But as we do know, Tesla has had internal chip development for quite a while and clearly needs HW3 to continue their development of Autopilot beyond EAP. Their own chip also probably allows for some cost-savings over time. So now they have an incentive to get that hardware into new cars as fast as possible. Installing it on employee vehicle's, existing product range no less, and other info from the autumn suggets the actual hardware is quickly getting there. What this says to me is that, at least in theory, Tesla is already today able to fit HW3 into any AP2.5 Tesla at least. Could it still go through some hardware revisions before getting to market? Sure. But it also might not.

Another thing lighting a fire under Tesla's behind on this is the fact that all AP2.5 sales are sales that might result in retro-fitting obligations for a HW3 computer. It would make sense to get HW3 at least into new car production as soon as possible. So I can definitely see, completely separate from any interior refresh or Superchager V3/2170 battery speculation, HW3 computer hitting new car production in early 2019. It is a possiblity at least. This would allow Tesla to release first bits of their FSD related features (anything beyond EAP specs) on the market, which I am pretty sure they have at least somewhat completely by now, but are simply unable to launch. For older cars this hardware could of course appear only later, which might create interesting friction as the existing fleet could be left even more behind in the meanwhile.

There are two or three bits of recent news that have gotten me wondering about the imminent future of FSD features on Teslas:

V9 rumouredly maxing out on Drive on Nav, which is what EAP is - and this without e.g. traffic-sign recognition. EAP also now uses eight cameras, not just four. This does not bode well for adding FSD differentiating features on current HW. It seems possible EAP is all we get without an AP computer swap. Neural Networks #509
Tesla stopping FSD sales for new cars this week. What is the incentive for Tesla to launch FSD differentiating features if they are not selling this feature currently? Tesla's track-record of support for features that are not currently shipping in new cars is fairly low. They seem to usually do the bare minimum, if that for "obsoleted hardware". Tesla removes Full Self-Driving (FSD) option from Design Studio
Recent announcement that AP3 computer with Tesla's own chip is 6+ months into the future and retrofitting of that to current AP2/2.5 cars with FSD option. AP3 Computer to be in production cars in ~ 6 months from now. Free for FSD owners.

When I selected FSD for my Model X back in 2016, I didn't do it because I expected "coast to coast" autonomous rides in my car anytime soon. But I did do it because I expected constant progress on autonomy features, beyond what selecting EAP would get me. Today none of that has materialized, though V9 will at least finally use all eight cameras (once it is released to Europe). Interestingly Tesla still refers to EAP as four cameras in today's Design Studio for Model S/X.

My personal guess is that stopping FSD sales is mostly liability limitation, now that they seem certain they will need to do computer retrofits. It does not necessarily tell too much, one way or another, of their inhouse progress.

But what I'm concerned about is the fact that I don't really see a timeline or a clear path in the near future for those FSD differentiating features. HW3 hardware retrofits seem a long way into the future, even if the hardware starts shipping in "6+ months". P100D retrofits took a year or more before they started for those who bought them... and especially AP2 HW seems maxed out (won't even run the dashcam).

The FSD differentiating features was stuff we were supposed to see 3-6 months from January 2017... that was April to July, 2017...

HW3 will eventually deliver a new platform for Tesla to continue their development work, which makes sense looking at their development method, but before the fleet retrofit, what will be their incentive to start offering FSD differentiating features what older cars can't get until upgraded? If they can release something that sells new cars, then perhaps those get something, but it seems iffier especially for older cars.

Finally, V9 (delayed Drive on Nav and overall NN performance) has not been so very impressive according to reports, which might also suggest Tesla really has their work cut out for them autonomy-wise... to the extent that actual Level 3 (hands and eyes off road) on AP2/2.5 seems more like a pipedream now than something to look forward to soon, though Level 2 EAP seems a bit closer of course seeing Drive on Nav...


So, it seems possible to me that any FSD differentiating features are even further into the future than they seemed to be before the latest round of news. Especially for older AP2+ cars. I am somewhat downgrading my already meager expectations on when I might see FSD differentiating features on my car. I hope I am wrong. (A few more personal musings on this timeline here: Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!! #1458)

We shall see. Take care!

A comment on the AP3 speculation above in this thread and also towards the water cooling of potentially retrofitted AP3 hardware in Model S/X that has a fine discussion over on the Autonomous Vehicles sub-forum:




Personally my guess is this:

"AP3" for current Model S/X (AP2/2.5, MCU1/MCU2) will be different than "AP3" for future Model S/X. This may be the case for even the sensor setup, but mostly my comment concerns the AP3 computer in this message. Current Model S/X would get "Legacy-AP3", while some future Model S/X refresh would get the full "AP3".

When AP3 ships, I would not be surprised if it ships together with the long-rumoured Model S/X dashboard facelift. This would then probably also include a new "MCU3/AP3" or "ICE" liquid-cooled setup for Model S/X, maybe similar sandwhich as current Model 3's "ICE", with also the interior camera and all that. The new setup could power new things also like a HUD or a new, smaller instrument cluster screen as well.

However, current Model S/X (and cars sold before AP3 ships in Model S/X) would - I expect - continue with the legacy MCU1/MCU2/IC setup and a separate APE computer just as they have today. They would get retrofitted with something a little different - the "Legacy-AP3" - behind the glove compartment that may well remain air-cooled as well. Basically the overall setup would remain similar to today.

"Legacy-AP3" might feature the same board or similar board to the full AP3, but otherwise be placed in a legacy-compatible container, with different fittings and possibly different connectors etc. that are suitable for a quick swap in older cars. It is not impossible the board itself might be a little different too, if that makes sense for Tesla. (AP2.5 in Model S/X already is a little different than it is in Model 3 - the selfie cam connector is empty at least.)

It is also possible Tesla could start shipping AP3 before Model S/X dash facelift is ready, of course, given that some speculation/leakage places the facelift only in Q3/2019 and AP3 sooner. So it might come first to Model S/X in the "Legacy-AP3" form, of course. But once a Model S/X dash facelift happens, that is at least when I expect Model 3 and Model S/X to become close to each other in this regard, liquid-cooling included.

So old cars with "Legacy-AP3" will likely remain without some of these newer particulars and use other solutions. IMO it seems also likely "Legacy-AP3" will miss some redundancy or some sensor features in later AP suite versions and that these will never get retrofitted (AP2.5 of course already has some additional redundancy and color-channel cameras where AP2 does not, and AP2.5 Model 3 has the interior camera not precent in AP2/2.5 on Model S/X, so there is some precedent already...).


Exclusive first look at Tesla Model S and Model X interior refresh: going spartan like Model 3

As for the HUD, nothing new anywhere, so what I said in the summer still is my latest thinking. That said, the more time that passes on these old rumors, the more likely it is every plan has changed my times over since then. I still think a HUD used to be in the Model S/X and 3 refresh plan, but whether or not it still is, is a good question.

New fodder for the HUD speculation from Elon Musk's tweet, answering a question about Tesla Roadster: "Definitely. Will also have Augmented Mode that will massively enhance human driving ability. Like a flying metal suit, but in car form …"
View attachment 307773

Elon Musk on Twitter

As you know, I have been speculating about an Augmented Reality HUD for some time now (see first post). My concept drawing could certainly fit the bill of an "Augmented Mode":


That said, the Augmented Mode described by Elon could also fit some form of advanced traction control - or a combination of both vision and other augmented features.

This image of a flying metal suit from popular culture is popular - and Elon did, way back when, talk of "spaceship controls" too - could this have been what Elon had in mind in both instances?


There is also the fact that Augmented Reality HUDs are an industry-wide phenomenon in development (again, links earlier in this thread to threads with links to several development projects). Tesla hopping on this train would seem plausible from that perspective as well, though not a guarantee given how Tesla regularly shirks common trends.

As for the rest, there has been very little progress and reason to update the thread, as the real action has been over on the Model 3 side, which seems to be progressing towards an eventual success IMO. Obviously Model S/X progress has stalled and many speculated timelines have been excessively optimistic. A few comments:

- The red interior. I personally agree with the alleged leaks, as well as the speculation from Elon about the red interior, that any major update to Model S/X were postponed - possibly from a planned Q1/2018 update to late 2018 or early 2019, due to a need to focus on Model 3 and that the reference to a red interior next year could point to the new timeline. These rumors and alleged leaks are quoted earlier in this thread. The mild trim update recently done to Model S/X interior seems like a stop-gap to me. IMO the red interior could be a sign of a revised interior, one that could include things like Model 3's interior camera, new dash and screens and possibly an Augmented Reality HUD, and not just another stop-gap. As usual, all speculation and subject to change at whims of Tesla even in the best of guessing times.

- Two paths to on-ramp/off-ramp on Autopilot. An interesting conversation. It is obviously true that Tesla's in-house EAP codebase is much more feature-rich than the shipping one, as has been mentioned by Elon Musk (and is believable, as well as supported by leaked photos). Navigation-based off-ramp was originally promised for around Q4/2016 for AP1. It does not seem implausible that Tesla could have gotten things to work soon(ish) in this regard after a delay of 1.5+ years. AP1 features seem delayed quite possibly to keep it from increasing a parity gap and I guess I'd expect both to appear at the same time, if they got the AP1 improvements to work reliably too. (If not, quietly forgetting about the AP1 promise, like the vanity mirror retrofit - now shipping but not retrofitting - seems plausible too.)

Still, there are legitimate concerns about the pace and reliability of Tesla's NN progress, given the reported lust to wander away from lanes and center towards gore points - and the general length it has taken for significant new features to arrive (I believe @calisnow would have lost his $10,000 bet had someone taken him up on it, no new EAP features?) - so the timeline of maturing of these new features seems unknown. Past progress may or may not be indicative of anything. I do wonder if the recent manual changes regarding lead cars could be sign of Tesla steering away from lead car bias, possibly a result of the latest Mountain View incident information mentioning a lead car? A shout-out to @croman - I still don't see blue almost ever, a bright white IC car in front is common, though.

- I have long been a proponent of the speculation that the new 2170 battery (currently in Model 3) is superior to the old-cell battery in more ways than just cost. I think we may be seeing the first signs of this unfolding in the impressive range, performance and other potentially not yet unveiled improvements happening in the battery space: Tesla releases rare details about Model 3’s battery cells, claims highest energy density and less cobalt. Speculatedly the difficulties with the Gigafactory and Model 3 ramp-up have precluded any talk of introducing these on the Model S/X yet, but when the full capabilities of the new batteries will be shown I continue to expect significant improvements and kWh upgrades over the old cell even in the current (or slightly facelifted) Model S/X form-factor.

Thanks to all who have continued to interesting analysis and speculation on these! Please keep up the good work.

If I had to guess, here is the order in time and in probability which these things might appear, though some might well happen at the same time:

1st: Supercharger V3
2nd: HW3
3rd: 2170 battery in Model S/X
4th: Model S/X interior refresh
5th: HUD

We shall see! Right @TexasEV @lunitiks @croman @verygreen @DocZ @MXWing @wk057 @ohmman @bonnie @vandacca and the rest?

Have a great New Year all my friends on TMC! Keep on speculating, keep on analyzing, keep on driving.

 

[Matias]

One comment; As Tesla is not selling FSD at the moment, they are not selling any new mandatory 2.5 to 3 upgrade cars.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

One comment; As Tesla is not selling FSD at the moment, they are not selling any new mandatory 2.5 to 3 upgrade cars.

You can still order FSD currently, just not via the website. They are still selling it. They just aren't advertising it. We just had it added to a new delivery a couple weeks ago.

 

[kskog]

I think Tesla will release a new Model S and X with CCS and 2170 battery around the same time as Supercharger v3. It would also make sense to switch to model 3 motors.

 

[Matias]

You can still order FSD currently, just not via the website. They are still selling it. They just aren't advertising it. We just had it added to a new delivery a couple weeks ago.

Ok, thanks for the information.

 

[verygreen]

Based on what started showing up elsewhere I'd say we get hw3 in the next 6 month, in August 2019 at the latest.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Ok, thanks for the information.

To clarify, you can still order it via the website for a car that was already delivered. It just isn't on the website for new orders. For those, you just have to ask the Owner Advisor or another employee before delivery and they can easily add it to your order.

The images below show the current option to add FSD to a Model S or Model 3:

 

[DocZ]

As the year 2018 is drawing to a close, time to re-cap where we are on the mighty Tesla rumor watch:

First a comment on the CCS, where we still don't know much. The European demonstrator fleet has been mostly (entirely?) U.S. cars and no test drives are available yet either (beyond a PR video: Tesla surprises European owners with Model 3 test drives) so what little we know of this move comes from Tesla. We know Model 3's get CCS and Superchargers get dual connector cables. Basically we were told just enough so that Model 3 buyers in Europe know what they are buying. First European Model 3 deliveries are to be expected around February according to what Tesla tells to people ordering before the year's end.

Why is this relevant you might ask. Well, it brings me to my first forward-looking point which is Supercharger V3. We remember from summer that Tesla said Supercharger V3 deployment is being planned around "the end of the year" and that it will be"‘zombie apocalypse-proof" (Tesla pushes Supercharger V3 to ‘end of the year’, says it will be ‘zombie apocalypse-proof’). The latter possibly being a reference to solar and PowerPacks as Elon tweeted in 2016: "There are some installed already, but full rollout really needs Supercharger V3 and Powerpack V2, plus SolarCity. Pieces now in place."

So the pieces for Supercharger V3 are now in place. How literally? We know from the first European dual connector Supercharger "tear down" that the dual connector connection was in fact already there, just waiting to be deployed (First look at Tesla’s new dual connector CCS Supercharger). Tesla has been planning this move for quite a while now. Now, it would be easy to overlook all this as merely Tesla preparing for a Europe where CCS has won over other connectors (legally and market-wise), and that certainly is true in itself, but I think that would be a limited view. I think all this is in preparation of the Supercharger V3. (Disclaimer: It is still possible that the dual cable prep in Europe is technologically separate though and not really representative of V3, but it all fits the same plan.)

There is another bit of news, which is that Tesla is selling all their cars, including demonstrators, by the end of the year (Tesla is releasing its fleet vehicles for sale to help deliveries before tax credit phase-out). Now, this may simply be related to the U.S. tax-credits phase-out, but it could also be in preparation for a fleet-wide upgrade of some sort (Q3/2016 never forget!). While Tesla probably could roll over the CCS launch in Europe with a nod towards a CCS adapter for existing Model S/X without too much of a sales hit for Model S/X, I am not sure they can roll over to a potentially vastly superior Supercharger V3 without introducing that feature immediately also in Model S/X. This might well mean they will have to introduce an updated connector in Model S/X as well (just in Europe or also elsewhere?).

This brings me to my speculation. Tesla seems to be lined up to introduce Supercharger V3 with improved charging specs in early 2019. This may or may not require new types of connectors and/or batteries to be supported, depending on the market. There is also the existing speculation on 2170 batteries earlier in this thread and in other threads, but I am not sure if introducing a new battery pack in Model S/X can happen simultaneously, so I am just putting this out there at this time as noting past speculation and analysis:


Second thing is the Model S/X refresh. No matter all of Tesla's Model S/X will always be the best bravado a year or so ago, it is evident Model S/X have fallen behind and Model 3 is the "Version 3" Tesla. Model S/X lack in interior details like coat hooks (Model S lacks even more like adjustable seat-belts), there is no interior camera in Model S/X, no software-adjustable airflow, the performance of the 2170 battery has been proven to be impressive and much more than just about cost-savings (as I predicted, I must humbly brag), in Europe Model S/X do not even have the latest charging connector anymore... even latest software features like V9 and TeslAtari just feel wrong on the Model S/X compared to how they feel on the Model 3 and its new steering wheel (and the most important detail of them all: Model 3 has touch-based Missile Command ). Tesla is moving to a brave new world and Model S/X are fast being left behind. They know this, of course, and I am sure there is a refresh planned.

Mind you, I am perfectly happy with my current Tesla as I ordered it back in 2016. I intend to keep it for quite a while still too. But would I buy the same car in 2019? No, it would feel antiquated as a new car purchase. I would not have bought the same car in 2018 either. I can not be alone with this sentiment. And again, I think Tesla knows it too.

There has been nothing new in the rumor department regarding the interior refresh, so I will just re-iterate by saying I believe it is coming, I have no idea when exactly and in these posts from the summer is pretty much what we do think we know and/or have heard: Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD #156

As the third point, fittingly, we come around to the Autopilot HW3, which is a topic heating up with Tesla's internal sales efforts: Tesla launches new incentives for employees to buy cars and get on Autopilot Hardware 3 test program We have discussed what HW3 is and isn't a lot. For me, most of the speculations of mine quoted below still stand, so I will merely update the thread on where I think things are today.

I think we are most in agreement that NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) pretty much has maxed out what the AP2 (and possible AP2.5) hardware is capable of. There will be tweaks and improvements for the existing fleet with merely EAP (or less) purchased of course (though like we recall from what happened to AP1 after AP2, probably in a diminishing fashion), but I think as far as new features go, that is probably the extent of it for the current Nvidia based computers. NOA will eventually have to come to other markets than the U.S. of course, but that's about it. How Elon thought in early 2017 that they'd have FSD features on the original hardware by summer 2017, I guess we'll never know.

But as we do know, Tesla has had internal chip development for quite a while and clearly needs HW3 to continue their development of Autopilot beyond EAP. Their own chip also probably allows for some cost-savings over time. So now they have an incentive to get that hardware into new cars as fast as possible. Installing it on employee vehicle's, existing product range no less, and other info from the autumn suggets the actual hardware is quickly getting there. What this says to me is that, at least in theory, Tesla is already today able to fit HW3 into any AP2.5 Tesla at least. Could it still go through some hardware revisions before getting to market? Sure. But it also might not.

Another thing lighting a fire under Tesla's behind on this is the fact that all AP2.5 sales are sales that might result in retro-fitting obligations for a HW3 computer. It would make sense to get HW3 at least into new car production as soon as possible. So I can definitely see, completely separate from any interior refresh or Superchager V3/2170 battery speculation, HW3 computer hitting new car production in early 2019. It is a possiblity at least. This would allow Tesla to release first bits of their FSD related features (anything beyond EAP specs) on the market, which I am pretty sure they have at least somewhat completely by now, but are simply unable to launch. For older cars this hardware could of course appear only later, which might create interesting friction as the existing fleet could be left even more behind in the meanwhile.



As for the HUD, nothing new anywhere, so what I said in the summer still is my latest thinking. That said, the more time that passes on these old rumors, the more likely it is every plan has changed my times over since then. I still think a HUD used to be in the Model S/X and 3 refresh plan, but whether or not it still is, is a good question.


If I had to guess, here is the order in time and in probability which these things might appear, though some might well happen at the same time:

1st: Supercharger V3
2nd: HW3
3rd: 2170 battery in Model S/X
4th: Model S/X interior refresh
5th: HUD

We shall see! Right @TexasEV @lunitiks @croman @verygreen @DocZ @MXWing @wk057 @ohmman @bonnie @vandacca and the rest?

Have a great New Year all my friends on TMC! Keep on speculating, keep on analyzing, keep on driving.

Very nice summary. I thought I had some insight last year about the Model S/X refresh but it seems that the pain of the model 3 was too much in 2018. I believe 2019 will mark significant forward progress for Tesla as they will now focus on multiple things at once.

I think the supercharger V3, HW3, and battery refreshes for the Model S/X are all needed ASAP. Tesla needs to recapture the excitement of new product announcements and execution, rather than constant headlines about production hell and Elon’s antics. Looking forward to 2019!

 

[emmz0r]

I think the supercharger V3, HW3, and battery refreshes for the Model S/X are all needed ASAP. Tesla needs to recapture the excitement of new product announcements and execution, rather than constant headlines about production hell and Elon’s antics. Looking forward to 2019!

Let's hope I get a battery failure when the old ones are out of stock, and the new ones are rolling out as the only option

 

[MXWing]

Mind you, I am perfectly happy with my current Tesla as I ordered it back in 2016. I intend to keep it for quite a while still too. But would I buy the same car in 2019? No, it would feel antiquated as a new car purchase. I would not have bought the same car in 2018 either. I can not be alone with this sentiment. And again, I think Tesla knows it too.

If I was in product development, I’d see selling a 2019 Model S/X to @AnxietyRanger as a personal challenge.

If that can be done, it’d be on the same level
of accomplishment as selling ice to an Eskimo.

I do love all your predictions and they make sense. I am wondering if also an exterior refresh is in the cards as well. While the S and X look pretty good, nothing says new generation than more than an exterior update.

There is another item that Tesla has to juggle on top of their current load which makes me wonder how they will manage it all Model Y.

Lastly, I wonder if they have completely abandoned FSD features on HW 2/2.5.

I imagine they could use the existing hw for at least the early releases to buy time for the hw3 refits.

Once EAP/FSD diverges in anyway, the Model 3 owners will be coming after Musk with pitchforks.

Every day a 2019 Model 3 does something a 2018 Model 3 cannot is going to be a nightmare to Tesla.

The don’t buy a Tesla if you don’t like innovation argument doesn’t work on the Model 3 base like it did on the “small production Model S and Model X runs.”

The 100+ thread on PUPgate and price drop thread proved that.

No Tesla owner prior to 2018 would ever have imagined that a $5,000 price drop would have generated 10,000 times the fury of the AP1 / AP2 switchover.

 

[emmz0r]

Lastly, I wonder if they have completely abandoned FSD features on HW 2/2.5.

Most probably. Different chips, different code to work on those chips although they perhaps made an abstraction layer to make it work on both NVidia's chips and their own. Question is which features are FSD. Like roundabouts ,traffic lights and sign reading. Especially sign reading should be a part of EAP.

I imagine they could use the existing hw for at least the early releases to buy time for the hw3 refits.

It should be able to to more on current hardware, like sign reading, roundabouts, traffic lights.

Once EAP/FSD diverges in anyway, the Model 3 owners will be coming after Musk with pitchforks.

Why though? If they didn't order FSD, then they are not eligible.

 

[MXWing]

Why though? If they didn't order FSD, then they are not eligible

Good point. To clarify:

EAP/FSD performance on a HW2.5 Model 3

Versus

EAP/FSD performance on a HW3 Model 3.

When those diverge, the former camp is going to be very upset, and voice it daily.

 

[lunitiks]

Word

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I am wondering if also an exterior refresh is in the cards as well. While the S and X look pretty good, nothing says new generation than more than an exterior update.

I would expect this to remain the plan (and I would not be surprised if the passage of time had added more revamps):

The tail and rear lights will get a revamp as well as the mirrors ( possible passing indicators?)

Rear lights getting a revamp would fit with a new CCS compatible charge port too... just saying...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

One comment; As Tesla is not selling FSD at the moment, they are not selling any new mandatory 2.5 to 3 upgrade cars.

Whilst I agree they are probably lessening their obligations with anti-selling the FSD option that way (hidden from the Design Studio), they still are producing cars where retrospective FSD upgrades can be purchased for afterwards, as they are AP 2.5 cars... (Unless they stop offering that, of course.)

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Based on what started showing up elsewhere I'd say we get hw3 in the next 6 month, in August 2019 at the latest.

I agree HW3 is "imminent". But to clarify: When you say "we", do you mean you and I as existing Tesla owners... or the new buyer?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Once EAP/FSD diverges in anyway, the Model 3 owners will be coming after Musk with pitchforks.

Why though? If they didn't order FSD, then they are not eligible.

Not quite. I take it that @MXWing is talking of the time before HW3 is retro-fitted into those 2018 Model 3's with the FSD option pre-purchased? New buyer that did not "loan" Tesla the money getting features before the older owner who pre-paid, just because they got HW3 hardware sooner from the factory...

That is indeed why it would make sense to start HW3 retrofits before HW3 ships from the factory in new cars (or at least before any HW3 dependent software ships), but let's be real, that is not how Tesla operates.

 

[emmz0r]

Good point. To clarify:

EAP/FSD performance on a HW2.5 Model 3

Versus

EAP/FSD performance on a HW3 Model 3.

When those diverge, the former camp is going to be very upset, and voice it daily.

Right! We have seen this happen with the MCUs. Newer firmware has made the MCU 1 more laggy.
But on the EAP HW unit, I think it will be more like either the feature is there, or it isn't and I can't imagine that the feature set will be decided by the hardware within EAP spectre of functionality. It would be terrible optics.

 

[pilotSteve]

Lastly, I wonder if they have completely abandoned FSD features on HW 2/2.5

What about late 2016 AP2.0 with paid FSD? The reason I bought FSD was to have “any necessary hardware or upgrades” be prepaid.

Or they will have to offer a very attractive program price to trade in for a functioning FSD vehicle for current owners. Yet another likely reason they stopped selling FSD.