Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

I must admit I have my doubts.

If either side let the other side have Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk a deal could be done.

Crimea in particular seems like a big sticking point, especially for Russia..

But the costs of the war are mounting for both sides, if it stays limited to a conventional war, the most likely outcome is Ukraine wins.
All indications so far are Russia intends to fight a conventional war, but that might change.
If Russia does use tactical nukes or chemical weapons, I think honour dictates NATO should step in, NATO needs to make that very clear.

I would like to see some deal for Ukraine to get the planes.
If not the planes a longer range air defence system.

For the actual war on the ground, Ukraine seems to be taking more territory than Russia at present, Russia seems to be suffering heavier military losses.

For Ukraine civilian, property, infrastructure and financial losses are mounting.

My take is that for Ukraine Civilian and Military losses are important, property, infrastructure and financial losses can and should be fixed after the war.

Sanctions should be biting and a lot of the sanction exceptions should be removed.

Dictators do everything for show. It's all about what their people think they are doing rather than what they are actually doing. It's all about the sizzle, there is rarely any steak.

Putin needs to look like he won and he can't let the truth get out. That's why I think he's going to let the army die in Ukraine. He can't afford to have those soldiers come home and tell their story.

Putin has scaled back his ambitions and is now claiming he wants Donbas and that was the plan all along. He needs to secure some kind of new territory for all this.

The long term consequences of this war are not a major consideration for Putin. He figures if they can do something they can call a win, he'll figure out the long term consequences later. Always about the optics, not the reality.

 

[stopcrazypp]

What about these?

UK supplying starstreak anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, defence minister Wallace tells BBC

Britain is supplying starstreak anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, defence minister Ben Wallace told the BBC on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

What Starstreak missiles, the weapons the UK could send to Ukraine, actually are

The UK is increasing its supply of weapons to Ukraine in response to Russia's 'indiscriminate and murderous' invasion

inews.co.uk

Fairly strong evidence that some have been delivered,

These are MANPADs like the American supplied stingers they already have. Range is very similar 7km vs 8km, max altitude is 5km vs 3.8 km for the Stinger.
Starstreak - Wikipedia
FIM-92 Stinger - Wikipedia

Useful against helicopters and low flying craft, but no really useful for fighters and bombers flying in mid to high altitudes and much faster.

It's not the mid to high altitude systems Ukraine is asking for, like the Patriot which can hit targets up to 70 km away and 24 km in altitude.
MIM-104 Patriot - Wikipedia
Most likely one Ukraine can operate (which they already have experience operating) is the S300 or the Buk system, which might be possible to get from former USSR nations (just like the jets):
S-300 missile system - Wikipedia
Buk missile system - Wikipedia

I think the point in the comments you were responding to is that after Russia completely wipes out Ukraine's air force and mid to high altitude anti-aircraft systems, then the Russia air force may be able to spread their wings more. Right now part of the reason for low altitude operations is Ukraine still is a threat to mid to high altitude (Russia's planes have to fly lower to avoid the targeting radars of those anti-aircraft systems), although having to drop unguided munitions play a part also.

The curious case of Russia’s missing air force

You can see in later articles, that Russia has increased their sorties and have had success avoiding getting hit by MANPADs.
Russian air force action increases despite flood of antiaircraft missiles into Ukraine

 

[wdolson]

Holy cow the Russians are doing some stupid things. Now 7 busloads of Russian soldiers with radiation poisoning are being treated in Belarus because they were digging trenches near Chernobyl.

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/tsnu17

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509280407006724101

 

[[email protected]]

Veteran US diplomat Chas Freeman for a high level perspective:

 

[Skipdd]

Holy cow the Russians are doing some stupid things. Now 7 busloads of Russian soldiers with radiation poisoning are being treated in Belarus because they were digging trenches near Chernobyl.

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/tsnu17

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509280407006724101

I read through the tweets. There was some back and forth and a suggestion that the claim was disinformation. Then there was a Fortune article linked that seemed pretty thorough. Didn’t say they were digging trenches, but did cite many examples of reckless behavior. This is terrible in many ways. Here is the Fortune article so you don’t have to read through all the tweets to find it.

Russian soldiers at Chernobyl are "suicidal" and unaware of the plant's history

Russian forces occupying the nuclear power plant are kicking up massive plumes of radioactive dust and not following safety protocols, workers say.

fortune.com

 

[elasalle]

Given their long running behind the scenes support of Taliban (which has come back to bite them and part of which has to do with India support of Northern Alliance), I doubt the Russia issue is the sole or even primary factor. Pakistan has also been cozying with China too, being the first export customer of China's J10 fighter:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44713/pakistans-first-chinese-made-j-10-fighters-arrive-amid-ongoing-modernization-plans
This is with the backdrop of the US long being Pakistan's largest source of military aid and also being Pakistan's general largest export market in terms of economy. Khan's policy has been trying to be on good terms with all the foreign powers, but in practicality it largely means moving away from the US and closer to Russia/China, which given the backdrop of the Ukraine war (and also China being rigid in their support of Russia) is a horrible time to be doing so.

However from analysis, the vote of no confidence in Pakistan has more to do a lot of the same domestic problems facing other countries (poor handling of pandemic, high inflation, a weak economy) and also him not being able to gather support from even his own allies (related to his choice of the minister of Punjab, the largest province in Pakistan). He's playing up the western inference angle (which what you post may be part of it) in hopes of getting domestic popular support (doesn't seem like much people are buying it though from how things are going). The same thing apparently was played up when foreign ambassadors wrote letters to Pakistan asking Pakistan to condemn Russia at the UN.
Why is Pakistani PM Imran Khan facing a no-confidence vote?
No-confidence motion in Pakistan parliament in bid to remove Khan

5-6 weeks ago I read one article that this guy decided to …
… fire 150 servants, keep only two
… move from palace to bungalow
… sell almost all the bulletproof limousines

Trying to do something like this in corrupt 3rd world country could definitely be his undoing

Note just a chance article I happened to read..

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Veteran US diplomat Chas Freeman for a high level perspective /...

You just have to look at that dude's Wikipedia page and read about his views on the Tiananmen Square Massacre and Taiwan to know that he's in the firm camp of the bully... I did of course not look at the linked YT-video.

 

[jabloomf1230]

I did of course not look at the linked YT-video.

Good advice. Here at TMC we apparently have our own Putin disinformation specialist.

 

[Tiger]

Veteran US diplomat Chas Freeman for a high level perspective:

This guy seems clueless that Russian (public) strategy cannot be trusted. They always act in own interest and always work to manipulate others. Allowing Russian puppets into EU would be a trojan horse. They already accomplished brexit, they will not stop there.

 

[stopcrazypp]

5-6 weeks ago I read one article that this guy decided to …
… fire 150 servants, keep only two
… move from palace to bungalow
… sell almost all the bulletproof limousines

Trying to do something like this in corrupt 3rd world country could definitely be his undoing

Note just a chance article I happened to read..

That was in August 2018, in what was largely a symbolic move that doesn't really necessarily do anything practical for the country:
Imran Khan ditches hundreds of servants as part of Pakistan austerity drive
Now a few years later, his party is doing very poorly in the polls due to soaring inflation and a weak job market:
Pakistan’s Imran Khan Concedes Election Loss in Stronghold Area

 

[Tiger]

If Russia actually used nukes in Ukraine, then the risk of Russian launching nukes to everyone is way too high to ignore so you have to take them out. When you go full crazy, your response is full stop right there no matter what.

When one nuke goes off, all nuke goes off. That's pretty much the policy of this world.

You cannot fight nukes with nukes, you will just destroy the world. The only answer would be "nuclear sanctions" and isolate Russia 150% (let willing people out, though, just isolate economically and probably also fight with propaganda).

No need to wait for the nukes, though.

 

[Tiger]

You believe he would abandon the entire army he sent into the Ukraine? Don’t see how anyone could spin that as a percentage play, Putin included. Think he would more likely set off a couple of tactical nukes and send the army in to steamroll despite the radiation rather than abandon his army. And I don’t see him doing that either.

Maybe they are now pulling out so they can nuke it with clear conscious.

 

[stopcrazypp]

In case people have any doubts about China's position or still harbor any hope they will do anything constructive in terms of helping Ukraine reach a peace deal (instead of just empty rhetoric):
Russia And China Are Leading A New ‘World Order,’ Russian Foreign Minister Says

 

[Tiger]

Interesting thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509186801688211456

 

[petit_bateau]

What about these?

UK supplying starstreak anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, defence minister Wallace tells BBC

Britain is supplying starstreak anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, defence minister Ben Wallace told the BBC on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

What Starstreak missiles, the weapons the UK could send to Ukraine, actually are

The UK is increasing its supply of weapons to Ukraine in response to Russia's 'indiscriminate and murderous' invasion

inews.co.uk

Fairly strong evidence that some have been delivered,

Starstreak is a short range MANPAD, much like Stinger, Blowpipe, etc. It goes a little faster than Stinger and has a different guidance system, and slightly longer range, and other subtleties, but it remains a short range MANPAD.

It is not a medium range SAM system, not even close. It wasn't the design intent. It is in many ways just another MANPAD, but rather a good one.

With all these MANPADs take the max range and max altitude numbers with a huge pinch of salt. That is the maximum altitude the missile can reach if there was a helicoper hovering at that altitude. It is NOT the 'working' altitude against an ordinary uncooperative target.

If the Ukraine air force is attrited out of the sky, then you could cover Ukraine with MANPADs and still have very little effect on the Russian air force because (if there is no air opponent) the Russians would adopt medium/high altitude tactics with impunity.

The Ukraine needs all the stuff they are getting at the moment, plus loss replacements for the following:
- aircraft;
- missiles for their aircraft;
- medium range SAM systems and the corresponding missiles.

I have said this all before, that is why I sound like a broken record. Please believe me, I know my stuff on this sort of thing. Once upon a time it was my job, long ago before I came into the energy sector, against exactly the Russian systems & tactics etc we see here/etc. All the ra ra stuff of the Death & Destruction Daily magazines is not the reality of 'heavy' long or medium range weapon systems whether they be land, sea, or air.

 

[wdolson]

Maybe they are now pulling out so they can nuke it with clear conscious.

Putin doesn't have a conscience to clear.

 

[wdolson]

Starstreak is a short range MANPAD, much like Stinger, Blowpipe, etc. It goes a little faster than Stinger and has a different guidance system, and slightly longer range, and other subtleties, but it remains a short range MANPAD.

It is not a medium range SAM system, not even close. It wasn't the design intent. It is in many ways just another MANPAD, but rather a good one.

With all these MANPADs take the max range and max altitude numbers with a huge pinch of salt. That is the maximum altitude the missile can reach if there was a helicoper hovering at that altitude. It is NOT the 'working' altitude against an ordinary uncooperative target.

If the Ukraine air force is attrited out of the sky, then you could cover Ukraine with MANPADs and still have very little effect on the Russian air force because (if there is no air opponent) the Russians would adopt medium/high altitude tactics with impunity.

The Ukraine needs all the stuff they are getting at the moment, plus loss replacements for the following:
- aircraft;
- missiles for their aircraft;
- medium range SAM systems and the corresponding missiles.

I have said this all before, that is why I sound like a broken record. Please believe me, I know my stuff on this sort of thing. Once upon a time it was my job, long ago before I came into the energy sector, against exactly the Russian systems & tactics etc we see here/etc. All the ra ra stuff of the Death & Destruction Daily magazines is not the reality of 'heavy' long or medium range weapon systems whether they be land, sea, or air.

The Russians don't appear to have many air dropped smart bombs yet. They aren't going to hit much from medium to high altitude with planes traveling at jet speeds dropping dumb bombs with air crews that have little training.

 

[MC3OZ]

The Ukraine needs all the stuff they are getting at the moment, plus loss replacements for the following:
- aircraft;
- missiles for their aircraft;
- medium range SAM systems and the corresponding missiles.

Agreed, even if the aircraft is hard to do, the missiles and SAM systems should be possible.

If aircraft can be done, it would be best to do it quietly, somehow sneaking them across the border, that is a tough task, and might not be possible,

The reason I mentioned the Starstreak MANPADs was Ukraine seem delighted to get them, or was using that supply to boost morale.
Their PR to boost morale is very convincing.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

More on why Putin and the Kremlin can not be trusted. Fast forward to 0:41.

".../ Andrei Illarionov, a former economic adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin /..."

 

[stopcrazypp]

The Russians don't appear to have many air dropped smart bombs yet. They aren't going to hit much from medium to high altitude with planes traveling at jet speeds dropping dumb bombs with air crews that have little training.

They can just bomb large areas like they did in Mariupol, given apparently they care nothing about civilian casualties or committing war crimes. From the other article I linked, the reason they have been able to do that largely unopposed in southern Ukraine is because Ukraine does not have their mid/high altitude air defenses there (instead have them to defend key areas like Kyiv and Kharkiv). Russia has been able to adjust their air operations to keep out of the range of MANPADs.
Russian air force action increases despite flood of antiaircraft missiles into Ukraine

You can see from the confirmed list of fixed wing aircraft destroyed or damaged, that other than one or two from mid March, pretty much all of them were from earlier in the war (early March or in February).
Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

Currently they still can't freely fly planes across Ukraine to drop dumb bombs because Ukraine still has those mid to high altitude AA operational, so they have relied on cruise missiles fired from bombers outside Ukraine's airspace (like fired at the Yavoriv training center in western Ukraine).

Note from the report on the Desert Storm operation, a majority of bombs were delivered at 12,000 to 15,000 feet (out of range for MANPADs) because Brig. Gen. John M. Glosson called for it after earlier losses at lower altitudes. This included plenty of unguided munitions. The report on page 121 said for targets where only unguided MK-84 bombs were used, F16s successfully destroyed the target 52 percent of the time (12/23) and FA18s 43% (3/7). The B-52s exclusively used unguided bombs at high altitude and Page 113 shows 25 fully successful targets vs 35 not fully successful. Unfortunately stats like CEP appears to be classified and redacted.
https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-97-134.pdf

So unguided munitions can still be used and hit targets a significant percentage of the time from medium to high altitudes out of the range of MANPADs and low altitude AA defenses.