One lesson of history is that an overwhelming defense is the only reliable protection against attack. That is reliable, but far from perfect.
A horrible way to run the world, but the alternative might be extermination.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
A horrible way to run the world, but the alternative might be extermination.
Terminator857
Active Member
Defense is a multi dimensional subject. If only Merkel didn't block Ukraine in 2008 from joining NATO.
Of course she did not want to infuriate Putin, but also by then it was clear that at least a couple of new NATO were looking to be problematic. Zelenskyy and the entire senior government have only been there about three years. In 2008 it all looked really questionable and there were territorial disputes, which NATO accession does not permit. We all wish reality were very different. We now have a strong, determined, charismatic and sympathetic government in Ukraine. 2008 was quite less attractive as a candidate.
Today the bulk of the world, almost everyone with good information access, supports Ukraine. No question, I agree.
Today we are in a world where Ukrainian unity seems rather better than that of many others, including the US, Hungary, Germany, France and several others.
Frankly, Putin probably looked at how successful they have been in destabilizing several of the countries above and thought they could not and would not unify against him. After all nobody complained too much with the others. Above all, he thought the lesson from Crimea would repeat now. Bad calculation!
Terminator857
Active Member
Would be good in my opinion if we changed that NATO rule, or formed a new defense union with that rule eliminated.
glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
With the events we see in Bocha, I can't even describe the carnage being inflicted on the Ukrainian civilians. Mass graves, torture, murder, and much worse. The Ukrainian people are being systematically murdered everywhere under Russian control. What more does it take for the West to get more involved? There is a huge spectrum between what we are doing today and sending in NATO troops. Get Ukraine warplanes. Get them tanks. Get them missiles. Get them Artillery. Get them more advanced drones. Get them C-RAM. Get them Patriots. Get them training. Start NOW! It will take time for this to be effective, but it has to start.
What are we afraid of? There is nothing left to escalate short of an open war between NATO and Russia. Are we afraid Russian is going to punish civilians in Russian held territories? Guess what, they are doing everything possible to exterminate them already. Are we afraid they are going to shoot the convoys transporting relief & weapons inside Ukraine. They already are! There is nothing left to escalate. There is nothing Russian can do to Ukraine worse than they already are short of dropping nukes. We can/have told them if they use nukes, so do we. Are we afraid of giving Ukraine weapons Russia is going to attack us (NATO)? Let them try. NATO is ready on the other side of the boarder. The excuses for holding back need to stop. We need ACTION!
Give Ukraine M1A2 Abrams tanks. Give them F-15s and F-16s now, so they can transition in a few weeks and deploy. Take their entire ground crew to the US to train with the pilots so they can maintain the aircraft. GIVE THEM F-22 RAPTORS! Will take time to train, but get started now. With F-22s, the can do every mission they could need. Air to Air, Air to Ground, Air to SAM electronic warfare. Give them F-18 Growlers or F-16 Wild Weasels to work with the F-22s. There is so much more we can do. Anything less is immoral. Standing by saying words is meaningless. Actions are all that matter now.
What are we afraid of? There is nothing left to escalate short of an open war between NATO and Russia. Are we afraid Russian is going to punish civilians in Russian held territories? Guess what, they are doing everything possible to exterminate them already. Are we afraid they are going to shoot the convoys transporting relief & weapons inside Ukraine. They already are! There is nothing left to escalate. There is nothing Russian can do to Ukraine worse than they already are short of dropping nukes. We can/have told them if they use nukes, so do we. Are we afraid of giving Ukraine weapons Russia is going to attack us (NATO)? Let them try. NATO is ready on the other side of the boarder. The excuses for holding back need to stop. We need ACTION!
Give Ukraine M1A2 Abrams tanks. Give them F-15s and F-16s now, so they can transition in a few weeks and deploy. Take their entire ground crew to the US to train with the pilots so they can maintain the aircraft. GIVE THEM F-22 RAPTORS! Will take time to train, but get started now. With F-22s, the can do every mission they could need. Air to Air, Air to Ground, Air to SAM electronic warfare. Give them F-18 Growlers or F-16 Wild Weasels to work with the F-22s. There is so much more we can do. Anything less is immoral. Standing by saying words is meaningless. Actions are all that matter now.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
That rule is so NATO won't be directly forced into a conflict and likely play offensive, which makes sense for a defensive alliance. Ukraine is asking for defense guarantees with individual countries which may serve a similar purpose, although all this will have to happen after a secure ceasefire (it's clear no nation wants to participate in outright war with Russia).
I should point out also, the other strict criteria for participation has to do with the consensus decision making process of NATO. If a pro-Russia country was able to slip in, it can reek havoc by blocking action by NATO for legitimate threats. So NATO has to be very careful about which countries they admit.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
One of Russia's most advanced and expensive jets, the SU-35 appears to have been shot down (and pilot ejected and captured). It looks like it was loaded out for SEAD (to take out Ukraine's air defenses).
First Russian Su-35S Flanker-E Confirmed Destroyed In Ukraine
This type of thing is why Ukraine has been pushing for mid/long range AA. Russia's actively trying to take out their remaining Ukraine AA, and if they succeed, it can mean a load of hurt for cities outside the southern/eastern regions of Ukraine.
First Russian Su-35S Flanker-E Confirmed Destroyed In Ukraine
This type of thing is why Ukraine has been pushing for mid/long range AA. Russia's actively trying to take out their remaining Ukraine AA, and if they succeed, it can mean a load of hurt for cities outside the southern/eastern regions of Ukraine.
Terminator857
Active Member
Among my circles there is very strong support for Ukraine. I can't find anyone personally that will say something negative about sending more to Ukraine. I'm disappointed Joe acts afraid of putin / ww3. It is o.k. to be afraid, but don't do that publicly. Please act strong publicly! We are very strong! Although he does seem to be steadily increasing support. Too slow, I agree!!!
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glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
Agreed. The slow-walking of military aid to Ukraine is only benefiting the Russians. We need quick, decisive, and overwhelming action immediately to contain this conflict to Ukraine and prevent this from turning into World War 3.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Funny. US doesn't recognize Internation Court where Putin can be tried. Ofcourse, Russian doesn't recognize it too ..
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not sure why so many people want nuclear annihilation.
X Fan
Active Member
Amazing, every generation has it's Neville Chamberlain viewpoints which inevitably see the situation wrongly.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Terminator857
Active Member
Why do you think sending offensive weapons to the Ukraine equals nuclear annihilation? To me it means the opposite. Less chance of world nuclear annihilation.
I am not quite positive about that, but I support doing everything possible to defeat territorial aggression. There is a strong cognitive dissonance about that for me.
glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
What makes you so certain that providing military weapons to Ukraine would result in nuclear annihilation? Both the US and Russia have been exporting all kinds of military hardware across the world for decades. Nothing new.
Ukraine becoming a slave-state of Russia would create the highest chance of NATO involvement, with the possibility of nuclear war. The reason is Ukraine will never capitulate to Russia, even if it becomes occupied by Russia. Ukraine will continue to resist. If you think the conventional war is bad, wait until it becomes an insurgency. It will become even bloodier for everyone involved than it is now. That in turn may lead to further involvement directly from NATO member states like Poland, who sitting idly by will become politically untenable for it's government.
Why would Russia respond to military aid with nuclear weapons? They don't want nuclear annihilation either.
Russia has already expressed that they see no role for nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian conflict... If you believe them. But if they are lying and do intend to use them, what would prompt them to do so. Loosing the conflict? They might already do that, just a lot of killing of people and civilians between then and now. So in that risk, they may already use them and no reason to not give Ukraine weapons. Giving Ukraine weapons speeds up the end of the war and less people (civilians) die.
The other reason Russia would use nuclear weapons, and the reason in which they already publicly stated they would, is if the Russian state's existence is at threat. I.e. NATO tanks rolling in towards Moscow. This is the outcome everyone is trying to prevent. And is the outcome that could well happen if Russia is not defeated militarily, quickly. There is a very real risk of other European countries getting directly involved if Ukraine becomes a giant concentration camp where the entirety of it's people are exterminated. Why wait for this eventuality?
If Russia is defeated militarily inside the boarders of Ukraine, this is the best and most stable outcome for peace in Europe and the world. Russia would be unable to do anything about it, short of nuking the west out of frustration. Unlikely, but why would we capitulate to Russia because of this? Might as well just hand over the United States sovereignty to Russia right now, lest they get angry with us and try to Nuke us...
petit_bateau
Active Member
There are some other points to be gleaned from this.
1. Location it was shot down in is also (imho) significant. It is difficult to deconflict air & ground based defences. It also seems that the eastern skies are a bit too hot for the Ukraine air force. So it may be that the eastern skies are handed over to Ukraine medium range SAM and short range SAM, whilst Ukraine air pursues other missions. But also significant that Russians committing their most advanced aircraft to the effort over Izium which appears to be the pivot-battle-du-jour.
2. Almost certainly actually shot down by a MANPAD, possibly Starstreak given some of the observations on the net re particular damage tell-tales. It must be confusing to be a Russian pilot with so many adversary missile types to worry about. Not much time to think about it and respond appropriately.
3. WTF are the Russians doing using their Su-35 most advanced singe-seater air defence fighter for in any ground attack role, let alone the SEAD role (which ordinarily would be for the 2-seater Su-34). Have they run out of viable Su-34's ? Or not enough Su-34 crews and SEAD kut ? Or rwhat ? Where are their Su-25 FRogfoots ? Are they discovering (as the A10 crews also find in exercises) that European-skies are unforgiving places for low and slow.
4. It is almost as if the Russians were going after the Ukraine Bukhs but flew into a missile trap as the Buks were surrounded by Starstreaks that were there for force protection. Or is it so hot for Russian aircraft that they all fly around with ARMs on the wing because they know they are going to get targetted ?
Interesting. Good effort to the Ukraine.
Now give them the tools to do all the job properly.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
The second point makes sense to me, but the first doesn't.
Putin will declare a major victory no matter what happens on the ground. Russian media will enthusiastically agree. Most will believe, the rest will "believe".
The 20% discount only reflects a small fraction of what they sell. Most is under long-term contract. But even if they sell 20% less oil today and it's all at a 20% discount to WTI/Brent, they still make more money today than one year ago when oil prices were 40% lower.For those that said sanctions would not impact things:
Russian Oil Production Has Already Begun To Decline | OilPrice.com
Russian oil production has officially started to decline as the country struggles to sell cargoes due to the fact that no one is bidding in Europeoilprice.com
The key point to note is that while production finally begins to fall it is because there is nowhere to store oil. Sales are over 20% lower than before. Urals is trading at 20% discount on top of that. It's a big cut in income.
They are not burning through reserves. Many reserves were seized on day one, every day since they've rebuilt them by running a trade surplus.
They can throttle back 20% without damaging fields. If they do need to shut in they'll start with dying wells that need rework anyway. Heck, they'll dump oil in the ocean before they damage their fields.
People need to get real. Russia will not "collapse" as long as they can export enough to pay for the small fraction of imports which are absolutely necessary. They ran a trade surplus even when oil prices were much lower. At current prices they can survive exporting to China and India alone, even if Europe somehow eventually manages to cut off all oil and gas imports. This is just arithmetic.
Only a massive battlefield defeat can stop Putin. The west has only given Ukraine enough support to avoid defeat and prolong suffering. They can only win if we dramatically ramp lethal aid and overcome our extreme reluctance to provide "offensive" weapons. Yes, that involves risk. But it's the right thing to do and it will pay off in the long run.
Interesting.
As Russia Plots Its Next Move, an AI Listens to the Chatter
With vast amounts of data becoming available to intelligence analysts, new tools will help them sift and interpret it all—but they will introduce new risks, too.
Read in WIRED: As Russia Plots Its Next Move, an AI Listens to the Chatter — WIRED
As Russia Plots Its Next Move, an AI Listens to the Chatter
With vast amounts of data becoming available to intelligence analysts, new tools will help them sift and interpret it all—but they will introduce new risks, too.
Read in WIRED: As Russia Plots Its Next Move, an AI Listens to the Chatter — WIRED
The Ukrainian leadership are no fools and understand Putin's long term goal,.
It was also Putin's aim to win in 3 days with minimal Russian losses and removal of the Ukrainian leadership, we know how that plan worked out.
Sanctions should be tightened as far as possible reduce the Russian economy to rubble, that is the best guarantee Russia will not be back,
At the end of the war the Russian army will not be in the same state it was at the start, soldiers returning home will also allow news of the real nature of the war to leak slowly out.
It may take a decade, perhaps longer, to rebuild the Russian army back to the sate it was in at the start of the war, in that decade the West move away form Russian oil and gas.
Ukraine doesn't need a large standing army, a lot of the populace have military expiernece of actual; combat in this war and a lot more have some training.
A small rotational army with 1-2 years of training should be sufficient.
I also think a security guarantee from Turkey is very significant and would give me a lot of comfort if I was a Ukrainian.
A security security guarantee from Turkey alone should be enough to make Russia think twice and it would be very unwise for Russia tor test this,
Finally do a good job of levelling the Russian economy and moving away form oil and gas, it isn't coming back soon, in 10 years time the Russians will realise they have spent the last 20 years going backs in economic terms.
Sanctions on/off isn't a binary switch, there is a lot of murky detail and shades of grey.
As well as imagining a quick military victory, the Russians are imagining the economy will bounce back quickly after the war, and life will return to normal, they are delusional on both fronts.
Putin and a lot of his support base are an older demographic and generally not in good health for their age group. Many of them may die off even before Russia has rebuilt the army, and certainly well before Russia has rebuilt the economy.
The time to give Russia economic assistance is when we see a change of attitude from their leadership and all necessary Russians handed over for war crime trails. If that means 20-30 years of economic hardship for Russia, that is what they deserve.
People might say China will prop up and bail out Russia, But apart form cheap food and Fossil Fuels Russia has very little to offer, the Chinese will soon find money spent in Russia doesn't achieve a high ROI.
