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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
You almost got that right. The Western world has to wean itself off fossil fuels, the sooner the better. The notion of it being OK to buy fossil fuels from some sources and not others is a fantasy spun by the US oil companies and embraced by the Right.
Have you noticed that the US oil companies have already petitioned Biden for sanction exemptions ? How do you think the GOP will spin increased consumer oil prices if supplies are reduced ? Look closer to home for evil.
Fiona Hill impressed me as someone who had good insight into Putin and Russia. Here is an interview with her.
‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Hopefully there's someone with a shred of sanity in that chain of command below Putin. They would know that their entire family and ~everyone they know dies in the ~flight time to the nearest Ohio class after they push that button.
Stanislav Petrov
It's all a matter of how you interpret Cyrillic into Roman alphabet anyways.
If Putin is going to move to doing Chechnya tactics in Ukraine, then he has truly lost his mind. The leveling of Grozny is something that largely happened in total media blackout in a far-flung Russian separatist territory, but that city was basically entirely reduced to rubble. When the Russians raised the flag over Grozny's central square at the end of the Second Chechen War, the entire city was a completely abandoned ruin because literally no one was alive there anymore, they had either fled or died. Kyiv is a city of 3 million people. If Putin kills 3 million people there is no way the West will just sit around and keep doing nothing. Conventional war across Europe would be on the table, like Red Storm Rising or EndWar. From there, it's not much further to global thermonuclear war and the end of human civilization.
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One thing that has pushed Putin to this action is Ukraine buying these drones:-
Ukraine Angers Russia by Buying Turkish Drones and Wants To Get Its Hands On More
The drone tensions come as Russian President Vladimir Putin again builds up troops near Ukraine’s border.
www.bloomberg.com
And so far the impression is these Drones are proving very effective.
The US makes a similar drone:- General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper - Wikipedia
This is how wars start, Ukraine was threatened by Russia, that caused them to buy the drones and wants to join NATO, which in turn threatened and angered Russia.
Hopefully, the talks can sort all of this out and reach agreement on Crimea., I don't think Ukraine ever had any intent to threaten Russia.
One analysis I read described some chance of Ukraine wining by eating Russian military hardware piece-by-piece. So maybe Ukraine hasn't attacked the convoy yet as the vehicles are not in a position where the drones can be used. Or more likely the drones can only be used when there are no Russian planes around...
One difference is Chechnya didn't have drones, anti-tank weapons, stinger missiles and resupply of hardware from friendly nations across the border..
IMO from here there are multiple possible outcomes:-
1. Most likely - Russians eventually take the cities, but both sides cop very heavy losses, and the Ukrainians probably fight on.
2. After a dress rehearsal for 1. both sides decide to cut their losses and sign a deal.
3. Ukraine dines out on the complete buffet of Russian military hardware - then 50/50 whether or not Putin presses the button... (or wants to press the button)
Of of these 3 bad alternatives 2. is the least bad, to get there, Ukraine just needs to destroy enough Russian hardware for Putin to start doing his sums.
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Very interesting that Giga Berlin suddenly is looking like final approval right after Russia invades Ukraine. I wonder how much Russian money was funding the various legal challenges and "environmentalist groups" which were trying to stonewall Giga Berlin's opening. 
There is an excellent analysis here:- Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The good news here is that Putin is possibly more rational than some portrayals, he is just very angry.
What that means is he is open to a negotiated deal, especially if some of his demands are met...
Since the real fight is between Ukraine and Russia, they are the ones that need to hammer out a deal.
Like all wars, some smart decisions and better communication might have prevented it happening.
The good news here is that Putin is possibly more rational than some portrayals, he is just very angry.
What that means is he is open to a negotiated deal, especially if some of his demands are met...
Since the real fight is between Ukraine and Russia, they are the ones that need to hammer out a deal.
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From yesterday, it feels like EU countries have started competing with each other, to see who can send the most weapons to Ukraine.
They will not run out of ammo. And now 70 fighter jets from EU.
Also so far, Ukrainians seem to have focused on hitting supply convoys instead of the main force. Smart, those tanks won't move without diesel.
They will not run out of ammo. And now 70 fighter jets from EU.
Also so far, Ukrainians seem to have focused on hitting supply convoys instead of the main force. Smart, those tanks won't move without diesel.
My point was that if Zelensky was killed, Ukraine will not automatically capitulate. They will make Zelensky a martyr and fight on under Shmyhal. Any puppet Putin tried to install would be ignored by the Ukrainians.
The Russians have only penetrated a tiny ways into Ukraine. The bulk of Ukraine is still free and the borders with the western neighbors are very far from Russian front lines.
Since electricity has been a think electricity was available just fine in most areas of a country except the front lines.
Diesel engines on tanks are safer than gasoline. The Russians started using diesels in 1940 because of this. With a gasoline powered tank, if the gas tank gets ruptured, a fire that eventually sets off the ammo is almost inevitable. With a diesel the fire risk is there, but much lower. the Russians are probably using cheap diesel.
Nobody ever wanted to lose a war, but when you bring amateurs up against a professionally trained army, you're probably going to lose.
In WW II both sides thought they could force the enemy into submission through terror bombing. It worked in the very early going until civilian populations knew what to expect, then the terror bombing just hardened their resolve. The Blitz against England failed and so did the RAFs night bombing campaign against Germany At the goal of scaring the population into submission, it did have some effect on the war industries). Everything the Russians do to up the pressure just makes the Ukrainians more determined.
The Russians don't have enough forces to take and hold Ukraine. That would take 800,000 troops without active resistance from Ukraine. They brought 200,000. All the air power in the world nor will all the artillery in the world will force Ukraine to capitulate.
I was going to mention what Fiona Hill said today, but I see someone beat me to it. Something is wrong with Putin's health. My partner was looking up the visible symptoms he's showing. It looks like he may have lymphoma that has metastasized, quite possibly to his brain. Historically he always listened to his advisors and if not followed at least took their advice into consideration. Now he's ignoring them and going his own way ignoring consequences and risks.
It's come out that the US military had a contingency plan if Trump ordered a nuclear strike. I hope the Russian military is doing the same. A dying man might consider killing the world on his way out an acceptable risk, but for the rest who want to remain here a bit longer, it's unacceptable.
They would be useless. The terrain in northern Ukraine this time of year is a sea of thick, gooey mud that can be deep enough to swallow up a tank. Any two wheeled vehicle would be lost in the muck in short order.
The Ukrainians own the night. They have hunter killer teams roaming the countryside at night on foot with night vision equipment and anti tank weapons. They have been very effective.
This interview with Fiona Hill is really informative, Putins plan:
..”Ukraine was the country that got away. And what Putin is saying now is that Ukraine doesn’t belong to Ukrainians. It belongs to him and the past. He is going to wipe Ukraine off the map, literally, because it doesn’t belong on his map of the “Russian world.” He’s basically told us that. He might leave behind some rump statelets. When we look at old maps of Europe — probably the maps he’s been looking at — you find all kinds of strange entities, like the Sanjak of Novi Pazar in the Balkans. I used to think, what the hell is that? These are all little places that have dependency on a bigger power and were created to prevent the formation of larger viable states in contested regions. Basically, if Vladimir Putin has his way, Ukraine is not going to exist as the modern-day Ukraine of the last 30 years.”
www.politico.com
..”Ukraine was the country that got away. And what Putin is saying now is that Ukraine doesn’t belong to Ukrainians. It belongs to him and the past. He is going to wipe Ukraine off the map, literally, because it doesn’t belong on his map of the “Russian world.” He’s basically told us that. He might leave behind some rump statelets. When we look at old maps of Europe — probably the maps he’s been looking at — you find all kinds of strange entities, like the Sanjak of Novi Pazar in the Balkans. I used to think, what the hell is that? These are all little places that have dependency on a bigger power and were created to prevent the formation of larger viable states in contested regions. Basically, if Vladimir Putin has his way, Ukraine is not going to exist as the modern-day Ukraine of the last 30 years.”
‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.
www.politico.com
I think I forgot to quote it, but someone mentioned that NATO had agreed to not allow in any members on Russia's borders. The flip side of that agreement was that Russia would leave those countries alone. NATO did violate this in 2004 by allowing in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, but it's been assessed that allowing Ukraine in would be a step too far. But Russia clearly violated the agreement by invading Ukraine.
Short of employing nuclear weapons, Russia can't win in Ukraine. The invasion was doomed from the start. The only way they could win is if Ukraine folded quickly, but they didn't and now Russia is stuck.
This will not turn into a war like the Iran-Iraq war. Russia can't afford to keep the army in the field and in combat for very long. The war is costing them a lot of money every day. They are putting up a brave face with the sanctions, but the realists know that the sanctions this time are going to cut very deep and the entire world minus only a few countries are participating.
They do not have the means to make more missiles or rockets. Their ability to make missiles is dependent on getting parts from Europe. They started the war with a 3-4 day supply of rockets and missiles. They have been using them judiciously to stretch them out. In the last day they have been doing a lot of rocket strikes, probably because they stripped the supply of rockets from every corner of the country.
They are probably using them heavily now trying to convince the Ukrainians they have rockets to spare, but they will end up running out soon. We don't know exactly how many rockets they had in stock at the beginning of the war, but it's a limited supply with no ability to replace them. They will run out and it will probably be sooner rather than later.
The Russians have some conventional artillery, but they rely heavily on rocket artillery. But once the rockets are used up, those rocket launchers are unusable.
Conventional artillery also has a drawback on the modern battlefield. To stay alive, you need to employ a thing called shoot and scoot. Seismic sensing is so good that the enemy can determine where you are and conduct counter battery fire on you if you don't move immediately after firing.
If fuel supplies are low on the front lines (as is reported), their ability to shoot and scoot is more difficult.
Morale among Russian troops is horrible. POWs are reporting that the only rations they get are 7 years out of date and many men are getting sick from eating the rotten food. The US is much better at food preservation than Russia.
I saw a post on Twitter by somebody who had been in the Russian army a few years back (he left Russia since). He said the corruption in the army is rampant. The generals sell off anything they can to feather their nests. This person backed up what general Hertling said, the Russian army's officers and NCOs are terrible and training for the conscript troops in very minimal.
The quality of their personnel in the army is maybe only one notch above the Iraqi army in 2003. They sent special forces into Kharkiv and they stood around like idiots after their vehicles were shot out from under them. This is Russia's equivalent to the British SAS, US Navy Seals, or the US Army Rangers.
The Ukrainian regular army (about 200,000) are all trained by NATO in NATO tactics and they are using a mix of NATO and old Soviet weapons. Their reservists (another 200,000) have some NATO training. The deep reserve (retired veterans) are another 200,000 who probably don't have any NATO training, but have some military training. This force is bolstered by a militia that probably numbers into the millions by now. The Ukrainian army has a lot of night vision equipment and training on how to use it.
Russian tactical discipline is awful. It's pathetic compared to what they did in 1945. It's even pathetic compared to what they did in 1942 wen they were losing to Germany! They have no night fighting capability and the idea of putting infantry in with the tanks seems to have been lost in the last 70 years. Their tanks are more targets for AT weapons than anything else.
With the poor morale and no way to win the war without nuking Ukraine until it glows (triggering the end of the world), I would be very surprised if this war was still happening at the end of this month. It might, but I doubt it.
Short of employing nuclear weapons, Russia can't win in Ukraine. The invasion was doomed from the start. The only way they could win is if Ukraine folded quickly, but they didn't and now Russia is stuck.
This will not turn into a war like the Iran-Iraq war. Russia can't afford to keep the army in the field and in combat for very long. The war is costing them a lot of money every day. They are putting up a brave face with the sanctions, but the realists know that the sanctions this time are going to cut very deep and the entire world minus only a few countries are participating.
They do not have the means to make more missiles or rockets. Their ability to make missiles is dependent on getting parts from Europe. They started the war with a 3-4 day supply of rockets and missiles. They have been using them judiciously to stretch them out. In the last day they have been doing a lot of rocket strikes, probably because they stripped the supply of rockets from every corner of the country.
They are probably using them heavily now trying to convince the Ukrainians they have rockets to spare, but they will end up running out soon. We don't know exactly how many rockets they had in stock at the beginning of the war, but it's a limited supply with no ability to replace them. They will run out and it will probably be sooner rather than later.
The Russians have some conventional artillery, but they rely heavily on rocket artillery. But once the rockets are used up, those rocket launchers are unusable.
Conventional artillery also has a drawback on the modern battlefield. To stay alive, you need to employ a thing called shoot and scoot. Seismic sensing is so good that the enemy can determine where you are and conduct counter battery fire on you if you don't move immediately after firing.
If fuel supplies are low on the front lines (as is reported), their ability to shoot and scoot is more difficult.
Morale among Russian troops is horrible. POWs are reporting that the only rations they get are 7 years out of date and many men are getting sick from eating the rotten food. The US is much better at food preservation than Russia.
I saw a post on Twitter by somebody who had been in the Russian army a few years back (he left Russia since). He said the corruption in the army is rampant. The generals sell off anything they can to feather their nests. This person backed up what general Hertling said, the Russian army's officers and NCOs are terrible and training for the conscript troops in very minimal.
The quality of their personnel in the army is maybe only one notch above the Iraqi army in 2003. They sent special forces into Kharkiv and they stood around like idiots after their vehicles were shot out from under them. This is Russia's equivalent to the British SAS, US Navy Seals, or the US Army Rangers.
The Ukrainian regular army (about 200,000) are all trained by NATO in NATO tactics and they are using a mix of NATO and old Soviet weapons. Their reservists (another 200,000) have some NATO training. The deep reserve (retired veterans) are another 200,000 who probably don't have any NATO training, but have some military training. This force is bolstered by a militia that probably numbers into the millions by now. The Ukrainian army has a lot of night vision equipment and training on how to use it.
Russian tactical discipline is awful. It's pathetic compared to what they did in 1945. It's even pathetic compared to what they did in 1942 wen they were losing to Germany! They have no night fighting capability and the idea of putting infantry in with the tanks seems to have been lost in the last 70 years. Their tanks are more targets for AT weapons than anything else.
With the poor morale and no way to win the war without nuking Ukraine until it glows (triggering the end of the world), I would be very surprised if this war was still happening at the end of this month. It might, but I doubt it.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
International pressure continues to squeeze Putin allies and supporters. This is the EU/IMF strategy for containing Russia: hit them where they emigrated.
The New York Times on Twitter: "Valery Gergiev, a Russian maestro and prominent supporter of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, was removed from his post as chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic after he refused to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. https://t.co/fCE9W6B2dG" / Twitter
Budmo!
The New York Times on Twitter: "Valery Gergiev, a Russian maestro and prominent supporter of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, was removed from his post as chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic after he refused to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. https://t.co/fCE9W6B2dG" / Twitter
Budmo!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That is why there is no result in the negoitions so far, both sides think they can win or the other will blink.
A nightmare for Putin is if they have to cede Crimea and the EU helps Ukraine fast track gas extraction.
Everything he was trying to prevent happening as a direct result of his actions. Not to mention a possible War Crimes trial.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Willian Cohen on Putin: "He lied"
Putin is 'getting more nervous and more desperate': former U.S. defence secretary | CBC News (10:17)
Budmo!
Putin is 'getting more nervous and more desperate': former U.S. defence secretary | CBC News (10:17)
Budmo!
It is happening now, he's doing it. War crime investigations are starting. Grozny was like what what happened in Berlin in WWII and it mostly involved hard core islamic fighters. The video of the old lady giving the young russian soldier sunflower seeds to put in his pockets so something would grow when he died is spot on.
Nothing in 20 years has unified Western Europe to such an extent.
This "agreement" pushed by Russia has been amply debunked. The nugget of truth in it that has been mangled and amplified was that there were talks to that effect with regard to German unification, but as is well understood, verbal consultations are not actionable agreements. Relevant twitter thread.
In addition NATO has had a Russian border since the beginning via Norway. Plus since 1999 Poland also borders Russia as NATO.
A true written agreement that Russia undeniably has violated is the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, that was supposed to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for its nuclear arsenal.
But all this NATO enlargement pretext business has been rendered moot by Putin himself as he delivered a deranged alternate history take on Ukraine's right to exist on the eve of his order to invade and destroy Ukraine.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
EU Will Debate Ukraine's Application for Membership, Official Says | Barrons
www.barrons.com
Ukraine's EU Application Will Be Debated: Official
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the European Union to fast-track Ukraine’s membership, an arduous process that can take years.
www.barrons.com
