Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

For those into stuff.

Janes is reporting the Russians have started using the SU-34 in Ukraine,

Ukraine conflict: Russia introduces Su-34 into fray

Russian Sukhoi Su-34 ‘Fullback' strike aircraft were seen operating over Ukraine for the first time on 28 February.

www.janes.com

which is a relatively long range supersonic fighter-bomber, quite advanced by Russian standards

Sukhoi Su-34 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

which is also a pretty high value asset, and according to the Janes article they are using a fair amount of them. That in turn suggests a) the Russians have pretty much stripped the cupboard bare of stand-off precision guided weapons and/or b) the Russians are very short of the high-end trained crews one would expect to see in the SU-34 and/or c) the Russians think the Ukrainian air defences are now largely degraded except for the very low level MANPAD threat,

and within one day of first use the SU-34 have started turning up on the ground, in pieces,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498715763955449856

given that the Russians have emptied 80% of their deployed troops (200,000) into Ukraine so far I'd say that a) and b) are correct, and that the Russians got c) wrong or are d) desperate.

 

[SmokyPeat]

So we abandoned the entire Ukranian people because of a few bad apples? Do you propose kicking Germany out of the EU? There's a history there, too.

9 parts lie and manipulative propaganda, 1 part a kernel of truth.

The 'nationalist' movement in Ukraine has German and rabidly anti-semitic elements. To this day they use Jewish hate propaganda. It is not by chance that both Putin and the Ukrainian nationalists use anti-semitic propaganda. It plays well in that populace.

Zelensky is the Colin Powell of Ukraine.

 

[madodel]

So we abandoned the entire Ukranian people because of a few bad apples? Do you propose kicking Germany out of the EU? There's a history there, too.

Hell, You can see NAZIs and Klan in the US.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Hell, You can see NAZIs and Klan in the US.

There's 106 miles to Kyiv, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark out, and we're wearing night vision.
Hit it!

 

[JRP3]

What do you think the odds are Putin dooms them to living in that bunker forever just because NATO enforces a NFZ over Ukraine?

Greater than zero.

 

[nativewolf]

For those into stuff.

Janes is reporting the Russians have started using the SU-34 in Ukraine,

Ukraine conflict: Russia introduces Su-34 into fray

Russian Sukhoi Su-34 ‘Fullback' strike aircraft were seen operating over Ukraine for the first time on 28 February.

www.janes.com

which is a relatively long range supersonic fighter-bomber, quite advanced by Russian standards

Sukhoi Su-34 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

which is also a pretty high value asset, and according to the Janes article they are using a fair amount of them. That in turn suggests a) the Russians have pretty much stripped the cupboard bare of stand-off precision guided weapons and/or b) the Russians are very short of the high-end trained crews one would expect to see in the SU-34 and/or c) the Russians think the Ukrainian air defences are now largely degraded except for the very low level MANPAD threat,

and within one day of first use the SU-34 have started turning up on the ground, in pieces,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498715763955449856

given that the Russians have emptied 80% of their deployed troops (200,000) into Ukraine so far I'd say that a) and b) are correct, and that the Russians got c) wrong or are d) desperate.

I don't see how that ID's anything? Anyway...maybe they can explain the logic. Sounds good but...what is the reasoning behind that scrap being an su34

 

[nativewolf]

So we abandoned the entire Ukranian people because of a few bad apples? Do you propose kicking Germany out of the EU? There's a history there, too.

Hmmm, yes don't let those evil ukranians in but have germany in? I mean what are some people smoking before they post. Germany is still in denial.

 

[MC3OZ]

The convoy for the last 24hrs has been "frozen in place by logistics problems, short on fuel and food, and perhaps pausing to reassess tactics."

Russia bombards Ukraine urban areas as armed convoy stalls

Russia bombed a TV tower in Ukraine's capital on Tuesday and rained rockets on the city of Kharkiv as Moscow intensified its bombardment of Ukrainian urban areas in a shift of tactics after its six-day invasion stalled.

www.reuters.com

If the Russians are taking suggestions for Plan C, I suggest - Unconditional Surrender

Meantime let's check in on war progress:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498552432426729477

 

[MikeC]

Can we change the thread title to “Russia/Ukraine War”? Calling it a conflict minimizes the severity of what’s happening and feeds into the Russian narrative.

 

[madodel]

Hmmm, yes don't let those evil ukranians in but have germany in? I mean what are some people smoking before they post. Germany is still in denial.

Have you been to Germany? I've been in the main square around the Dom in Cologne when the AfD had a rally with maybe a dozen nutjobs and they were surrounded by hundreds telling them to go away. Also many cities have museums and memorials devoted to showing the brutality of the NAZIs. When I was at Dachau they had lots of school children who do school trips there. They are not denying anything. They are still trying to make amends after 80 years for the evil they committed.

No country is perfect but right now Russia is being directed to commit atrocities and murder by a lunatic. We've seen this play out before in Germany and Russia. The world is standing up to Putin.

 

[stopcrazypp]

You're really out of touch with the realities of logistics and infrastructure. No port along Ukraine's coast or Russia's northern coast has the infrastructure for exporting oil. Further, there's really only two avenues for. One those avenues would go through Turkey. It's a narrow channel that Turkey can easily blockade.

The other avenue is Russia's north coast which is ice packed right now, meaning it's a no-go.

And sorry, but China's not going to go to war just for Russia when the entire world is against Russia. I have zero clue as to why people think China would take Russia's side in the case of escalation or war. China's economy is entirely based on the world economy. Right now they're trying to play both sides of this to try and get a win/win, but when push comes to shove, China isn't going to destroy everything it worked for over the past 30 years in terms of it's economy.

And yes, it would cripple the Chinese economy if war broke out and China sided with Russia. Even if there was de-escalation and return to norms, China would then be known as the country that sided with Russia in arms and appetite for anything China made would crumble on the world economy. You can bet China is fully aware of that

And in the short term, China still has to deal with the safety of around 6000 nationals still stuck in Ukraine before they dare making any further moves in support of Russia (much less military support).

Analysis: China's reaction to Ukraine could be putting its citizens in danger

Chinese citizens in Ukraine find themselves in a tense situation as plans for an evacuation from the war-torn country have stalled, leaving those who remain wary about potential backlash.

amp.cnn.com

Basically China's official stance (refusing to call Russia's actions an invasion and suppressing any pro-Ukraine messages domestically) and the actions of their online community (making horrible comments about Ukrainian women) have ignited anti-Chinese sentiment in Ukraine to the point their embassy has now told nationals to not reveal that they are Chinese. Military actions will take that danger further.

In the longer term, Ukraine was an important entry point for China's Belt and Road Initiative into Europe. Although that now looks like it's all gone down the toilet, the further point is that trade with Europe is still far more important to China than trade with Russia.

As for domestically, China has largely been able to keep their population complacent due to a good economy, and Russia is not important enough for them to jeopardize that.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I don't see how that ID's anything? Anyway...maybe they can explain the logic. Sounds good but...what is the reasoning behind that scrap being an su34

Click on the actual Twitter link, it shows which part of the plane it would to be and also that it matches the color of that section (the paint scheme the SU-34 uses is quite unique).

 

[MC3OZ]

Good to see Ukraine still having some wins;-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498799589100605444

 

[jbcarioca]

View attachment 775307

Just thought that was 'funny' and wanted to share.

Don’t forget a good part of Northern California.

 

[jbcarioca]

Russian military aggression has to be stopped, but I wonder how many people here are familiar with the Jewish tragedy in Ukraine ? Wikipedia is a pretty good summary, but below is a tl;dr version:

• Violent anti-semitism has been rampant in the Ukraine for hundreds of years. Wholesale slaughter of Jews was so common it got its own name -- the pogrom (invented by the cossaks, adopted by the ukrainians.)
• During WW II the most extreme genocide of Jews occurred in Nazi Germany, Poland, and Ukraine. The Ukraine stood out in particular for not only passively supporting the slaughter, but carrying out the slaughter themselves.
• The few Jews left today in Ukraine (about 17k today, 900k 100 years ago) remain a political dog whistle for the Ukrainian nationalists and Ukrainian Nazi supporting descendants, both of whom use Jewish hate propaganda to rally the population to their side.

I can think of better candidates for the EU.

One of the ‘few’ left is the President. Another is the family of Oleg Deripaska, oligarch in good standing born and raised in western Ukraine, and Roman Abramovich. Both of those travel on Israeli passports. Several major Moscow business people are Jewish, some from Ukrainian background. While working in Moscow several of my local colleagues were Jewish.

It is slightly facile to assume the Jews were wiped out. FWIW I celebrated Purim in a Moscow synagogue, and the next year at one in Hamburg. In numbers it is true that there are fewer Jews that there were before WWII. When Jews succeed as President of Ukraine and in leading business people in Putins’ Russia the facts are a bit more nuanced.

 

[MC3OZ]

Additional good news, if true;-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498824082330107908

 

[jabloomf1230]

It is slightly facile to assume the Jews were wiped out. FWIW I celebrated Purim in a Moscow synagogue, and the next year at one in Hamburg. In numbers it is true that there are fewer Jews that there were before WWII. When Jews succeed as President of Ukraine and in leading business people in Putins’ Russia the facts are a bit more nuanced.

In 1939, there 9.5 million Jews living in Europe. In 2020, there were 1.3 million and most of those were living in France. For comparison, the total population of Europe went from 560 million to 750 million during that same period. That's a drop from 1.69% to 0.17%.

 

[MC3OZ]

In 1939, there 9.5 million Jews living in Europe. In 2020, there were 1.3 million and most of those were living in France. For comparison, the total population of Europe went from 560 million to 750 million during that same period. That's a drop from 1.69% to 0.17%.

Many were wiped out during WWII, or moved to Israel after WWII.

It is true there was and perhaps still is a level of discrimination against Jews in many European countries. It is a hard problem to fix, because 5% or the population or less need to be anti-Semitic to be a problem....

Unfortunately on many issues you can find at least 5% of the population with narrow uneducated views and preconceived bias.

When I travelled to Israel in the mid-1980s I noticed a difference in temperament between Asiatic Jews and European Jews.
The Asiatic Jews were bit more laid back, the European Jews were a bit "Woody Allen", sometimes it takes generations to recover from trauma.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This will probably alleviate some pressure, but not nearly enough to outweigh tactics from oil nations and traders.

Dumping 60Mb on the market won't do much. Committing to dumping 10Mb per week for 30 weeks would do infinitely more and they'd likely end up actually releasing less than 60Mb.

U.S., allies set oil reserves release as prices soar

The U.S. and other International Energy Agency member states agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil reserves to compensate for supply disruptions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

 

[JRP3]

Russia plans to temporarily block Western companies from exiting their investments in the country, as the government steps up the defense of its troubled economy and BP and others scramble to cut ties there.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told a government meeting Tuesday that Moscow is preparing a presidential decree that would temporarily limit the ability of foreign investors to sell Russian assets.

Russia will ban Western companies from exiting investments as BP and others dash for the door

Russia is stepping up its defense of its beleaguered financial system as major Western companies try to ditch their investments.

finance.yahoo.com