-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Surprised we're not seeing more press about potential successors to Putin. There's pretty much no avenue out of this now, so I gotta think the oligarchs replacing him has the best odds.
In my 5 minutes of googling, it seems current PM Mikhail Mishustin looks like the logical move. Didn't know he existed until 4 minutes ago, but he's a nice business-centric interim leader while the big boys figure out the real plan. Economist with no real aspiration to succeed Putin or stretch out an interim role.
Throw him in office, put out the fires, get the money flowing again, and go from there.
In my 5 minutes of googling, it seems current PM Mikhail Mishustin looks like the logical move. Didn't know he existed until 4 minutes ago, but he's a nice business-centric interim leader while the big boys figure out the real plan. Economist with no real aspiration to succeed Putin or stretch out an interim role.
Throw him in office, put out the fires, get the money flowing again, and go from there.
Bitcoin for tanks.
cryptopotato.com
Anonymous Offers Russian Soldiers Over $50K Worth of Bitcoin for Each Surrendered Tank (Report)
The intercontinental hacker collective – Anonymous - will reportedly pay $52,000 in BTC for a surrendered tank.
cryptopotato.com
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I unfortunately don't think that this is the way things work. If your line of thinking was actually the way how things work – then Putin would never have been allowed to full scale invade Ukraine in the first place.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Have you seen 'Death of Stalin'?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
One of my favorites and probably how it actually works! I bet everyone could live with this PM nerd at the helm for a bit. Give everyone a chance to maneuver a fake election or something similar.
Certainly there weren't a group of people sitting around a table approving Putin's authority 5 weeks ago, he had total power and control. Today is different. People are losing potentially billions of dollars, with the specter of being carved out of the global economy for good.
At some tipping point military control can shift to a group of oligarchs and military leaders who see the reality of the situation and that there's no viable path that includes Putin. That tipping point comes in what......a few weeks? Months?
We don't have a lot of insight into he political processes in Russia, and we don't really know how the war is going to plan out...
If the Ukrainians win, that possibly happens in a few weeks... if they can prevent Kyiv being encircled, then it is going to be hard for Russians to take the city.
That would be Plan C failing...
If the Russians take the cities, perhaps that happens in the next few weeks, but after that the insurgency should last for years..
Trying to guess a timeline is very problematic.
If the Russians win and try to change the government in, all likelihood the sanctions last for years, until the West is happy with the elections for a Ukrainian government.
IMO a defeated army returning home almost always changes the government especially in a totalitarian regime,
The other alternative is Putin might die from natural causes, and that might be a circuit-breaker,
For the military campaign itself, there are reasons to be optimistic or pessimistic, experts are expressing various opinions, we might have a better idea in about 1 weeks time... The best case for the Ukrainians is they are able to prevent city sieges, or break city sieges, destroying a lot of Russian hardware in the process.
Once a major city falls and is held for a few days, then the insurgency period probably starts in that area.
Last edited:
BBC News is reporting that the southern port city of Kherson has fallen. It is the first Ukrainian city to be captured by the Russians during this war.
For people wondering, the reason the cities of Odessa and Kherson have such non-Russian sounding names is because of Catherine II (the Great) of Russia, who founded these cities and gave them their interesting pseudo-Greek sounding names.
For people wondering, the reason the cities of Odessa and Kherson have such non-Russian sounding names is because of Catherine II (the Great) of Russia, who founded these cities and gave them their interesting pseudo-Greek sounding names.
_Redshift_
Member
Statement on Ukraine by scholars of genocide, Nazism and World War II - JNS.org
At this fateful moment we stand united with free, independent and democratic Ukraine and strongly reject the Russian government’s misuse of history to justify its own violence.
www.jns.org
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The sole responsibility of Putin.
Hopefully this will get things moving.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Someone needs to remake that 'DownFall' scene with a Putin doppelgänger at the end of a comically long table.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
'War can never be the answer': Russia's wealthy elite speak out against Putin's invasion
As Europe and the U.S. ratchet up sanctions on Russia, some of Vladimir Putin's ultra-wealthy inner circle have spoken out against his invasion of Ukraine.
www.cnbc.com
Have you been ignoring the news? The world is reacting to this in every way short of declaring war on Russia. The economic sanctions are steep, from virtually all countries, and unprecedented in their breadth. Some of those countries are traditionally neutral in every conflict.
Many countries are sending arms to Ukraine and there are also countries that have told their citizens they can fight in Ukraine without any legal repercussions. (Most countries have laws preventing their citizens from fighting in foreign armies.)
Those Eastern European countries approached NATO requesting membership. Some were clamoring to join before the dust settled on the fall of the Berlin Wall. They did exercise their rights to their allegiances and chose who they wanted to throw in with.
Historically Putin has been predictable. Lately he's changed. He has become very paranoid since COVID broke out. He has been living in almost complete isolation. At the height of the pandemic anybody who met him face to face had to go through a decontamination procedure. Now when he meets with people he's always seated a ridiculously long ways away from them. It wasn't just Macron. He also hasn't been seen standing up in some time and was seen sitting awkwardly like his back was killing him a few months ago.
He's behaving like someone who is immune compromised and it's quite possible he has cancer that has become fairly advanced and maybe got into his brain.
Putin has always played a long game, taking little bites when he could. He's as good at the Chinese of watching for opportunities and making moves when he could be reasonably certain of success. With this, he's thrown all caution to the wind. This is a wild bet on a poor hand.
Russia is losing. They have not taken day 1 objectives.
The bad news is the newly unstable Putin is unpredictable. Will he burn down the world over this? That is the question that the entire fate of the world hangs on.
Putin does have enemies in the Kremlin. He sent a Chechen kill squad to kill Zelensky. Someone in the Kremlin sold them out and the Ukrainians eliminated them. Someone has also been feeding the Russian playbook the US intelligence since last fall.
petit_bateau
Active Member
If you read through the OSINT thread that I linked to you will see that they have been able to ID it as piece of an SU-34 wing in service with Russia by the colour scheme, the markings, the panel shapes, the rivet patterns, and the attached internal structural items. Other information regarding the provenance of the photo that is partly discussed ties it to Karkiv area of Ukraine. I see wiki is now reporting one as lost and giving a telegram link (currently wiki ref 84).
As always with this sort of thing one should weigh the intelligence and the analysis of the information carefully, listening to the views of others and their history and provenance, then considering what weight to ascribe to them. It looks to me as if they have drawn a valid conclusion. Just as with stock analysis (such as here with TSLA) open source co-operative efforts are surprisingly perceptive and accurate. There are people out there who seem to know every panel and rivet pattern on every aircraft, vehicle, and ship hull in the world, even oil stain shapes !
Yet in the split of former Yugoslavia, the side that sided with the Nazis (and had anti Jewish genocide on the rap sheet) were the side that the UN moved in to protect. The side which was on the Allies side was the aggressor …. comitting genocide against other religions / races
. Croatia (ex Nazi supporters) & Slovenia are both in the EU.
За плакаты "Нет войне": в России полиция задержала детей 7 – 11 лет - 24 Канал
В Москве задержаны пять детей с антивоенными плакатами. Их оставили на ночь в отделении полиции - 24 Канал
24tv.ua
This fresh in, 7, 8 & 11yr old children drew a poster saying “No to war”, went to the Uktainian Embassy with their parent who laid flowers in support of Ukraine. The children and parents all arrested, parents are having their parenting rights taken away from them and the children will be brought up in care!
If that isn’t the sign of a deranged meglamaniac then I don’t know what is
.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Just a wild guess here... Could the reason be that those two events were separated in time by roughly 45 years?Yet in the split of former Yugoslavia, the side that sided with the Nazis (and had anti Jewish genocide on the rap sheet) were the side that the UN moved in to protect. The side which was on the Allies side was the aggressor …. comitting genocide against other religions / races
May well be but it didn’t prevent Croatia joining the EU so why should it prevent Ukraine from joining? As someone else pointed out Germany (the biggest member of the EU financially) was the main protagonist in WW2 & shall we say “not exactly Pro Jewish”
