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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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The US openly engaged in prisoner torture under Bush/Cheney. Why no prosecution ?
Hey!! watch it! "We (only) tortured some folks" - Barry O


"The Report" on Amazon Prime is a must-watch film (based on real life) on the subject of how O tried to suppress the torture report from his own admin/party controlled congress, even going to the extent of CIA hacking into the computers of its own (Dem majority) senate oversight committee. This is Dem vs Dem stuff.. not partisan at all.

 
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In news from Ukraine the recently mobilized casualties are just shocking.

Many captured, just sample photo

many more dead as you can read in earlier posts.

US medium range NASAMS air defense systems are arriving, they will be very effective against missiles. Same system protects Washington DC.

The situation in Kherson is a bit strange...seems they really are moving out of the city and pulling out across the dam. Just reading now that russian soldiers are wearing civilian clothes in Khereson while they loot and build fortifications. Who knows.
 
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In news from Ukraine the recently mobilized casualties are just shocking.

Many captured, just sample photo

many more dead as you can read in earlier posts.

US medium range NASAMS air defense systems are arriving, they will be very effective against missiles. Same system protects Washington DC.

The situation in Kherson is a bit strange...seems they really are moving out of the city and pulling out across the dam. Just reading now that russian soldiers are wearing civilian clothes in Khereson while they loot and build fortifications. Who knows.

The mobiks are probably proving more trouble than they are worth to the Russian army. In a territorial defense situation, masses of untrained troops might help some. The territorial guard worked for Ukraine in the early stages of the war. In 1941 the Soviets threw a lot of untrained conscripts into the defense of Moscow.

But in those cases the untrained troops were motivated. They were defending something they felt was important in their home country. The supply lines were also short because they were defending an important place with good supply.

Now these mobiks don't know why they're there defending ground in another country at the end of tenuous supply lines. All the extra people to feed, clothe, and arm is stretching a system that was already having trouble even further with little gain. These new recruits don't know what they are doing, so they are more likely to just get killed or captured than achieve anything.

And I agree something weird is going on in Kherson. I can't figure out what the Russians are up to there.

Speaking of trains and railroads...

Russians 'steal children's train from Kherson as they evacuate'

I mean... what in the world do they do with all the nearly useless stuff they steal?

In some cases it might just be stealing everything that isn't nailed down, in others it might be that something they are stealing has some electronics that could be used in something else.
 
.../ I agree something weird is going on in Kherson. I can't figure out what the Russians are up to there. /...

I am certainly no expert on this, but here's my guess:

It's been reported that the Dictator's troops have switched to civilian clothing and hid throughout Kherson. If that is correct, then it seems to me that the Dictator's troops are going to try and create the fake illusion of 'civilians' fighting the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kherson. One motivation behind this would probably be for his internal Propaganda in Russia. And if that fails – having his troops in civilian clothes might make it easier for those troops to escape from Kherson somehow if – or hopefully when – the Dictator's stand there fails.

It seems rather 'reminiscent' of what the Dictator did with his 'little green men' when he occupied Crimea back in 2014.

I'm also guessing that this 'approach' could have 'a potential' of prolonging the battle for Kherson and make the fighting drag on for longer than it otherwise would have done...

.../ On 17 April 2014, President Putin admitted publicly for the first time that Russian special forces were involved in the events of Crimea, /.../ Later, he admitted that the Russian Armed Forces had blocked the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea during the events.[26] /.../

In April 2015, retired Russian Admiral Igor Kasatonov [ru] said that the "little green men" were members of Russian Spetsnaz special forces units. According to his information, Russian troop deployment in Crimea included six helicopter landings and three landings of Ilyushin Il-76 with 500 troops.[29][30][31][32] /...

Source:
 
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In some cases it might just be stealing everything that isn't nailed down, in others it might be that something they are stealing has some electronics that could be used in something else.

Seems like one qualification for the Russian Army, besides breathing, is kleptomania. I can't believe there are any electronics in a stolen washing machine that has any military value. Potemkins remains? Old statues of Soviet era 'heros'? The Ukranians are probably happy to be rid of the stuff. /s
 

ATACMS Missiles Will Bring Russia to Tears, Retired US General Explains​

Nov 7, 2022
The Renew Democracy Initiative brings you the fifth episode of our video series on the war in Ukraine in collaboration with New Debate and General Ben Hodges. In this episode, General Hodges visits his friend, colleague, and security expert, Edward Lucas, in London to discuss the most critical updates on the war. General Hodges and Edward Lucas offer pertinent insights into Russia's receding military occupation, the question of nuclear weapons, China's perspective on Russia's decision to wage a voluntary war, and the urgency and necessity of giving Ukraine the tools it needs to persevere in the face of Russia's continued aggression. /...
 
Wait 9-months and still get told no, so have to do a ten thousand mile vogage to Vladivostok instead.



Peace negotiations, simple checklist


Because

 
A pre-recorded EU speech was pulled at trade expo..
 
I am certainly no expert on this, but here's my guess:

It's been reported that the Dictator's troops have switched to civilian clothing and hid throughout Kherson. If that is correct, then it seems to me that the Dictator's troops are going to try and create the fake illusion of 'civilians' fighting the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kherson. One motivation behind this would probably be for his internal Propaganda in Russia. And if that fails – having his troops in civilian clothes might make it easier for those troops to escape from Kherson somehow if – or hopefully when – the Dictator's stand there fails.

It seems rather 'reminiscent' of what the Dictator did with his 'little green men' when he occupied Crimea back in 2014.

I'm also guessing that this 'approach' could have 'a potential' of prolonging the battle for Kherson and make the fighting drag on for longer than it otherwise would have done...

It's possible they may try that. Though Ukraine tends to try to surround population centers instead of fighting Russians street by street. The only street fighting they have done has been in defense.


Seems like one qualification for the Russian Army, besides breathing, is kleptomania. I can't believe there are any electronics in a stolen washing machine that has any military value. Potemkins remains? Old statues of Soviet era 'heros'? The Ukranians are probably happy to be rid of the stuff. /s

Modern washing machines are controlled with a microprocessor. Many appliances are these days.

Wait 9-months and still get told no, so have to do a ten thousand mile vogage to Vladivostok instead.



Peace negotiations, simple checklist


Because


I'm glad Turkey stood by their declaration and kept the Varyag out.

It's possible the new graves around Mariupol are mostly people who were found under rubble. The Russians have been clearing some of the rubble (mostly for photo ops).

I wasn't aware of this, but I read somewhere that China signed an agreement with Ukraine in late 2013 that if anyone attacked Ukraine with a nuclear weapon, China would come to their defense. At the time Ukraine was controlled by a Putin puppet and the most likely aggressors (from Ukraine's point of view) was coming from the west. Putin has dialed down the nuclear threats after a discussion with Xi Jinping. Maybe Xi told Putin that they would stand by their 2013 agreement if Russia got nuclear.


I haven't seen anything from WindOfChange in a while. I thought he may have been caught, but kept forgetting to check Sushko's Twitter. It's good to see he's still there.

I've been feeling for a while that some kind of serious unrest in Russia was pretty much inevitable on the back of this war. The best solution is for a balkanized Russia with many smaller countries, but it's in no way a completely safe outcome for everyone outside of Russia. A lot of new countries would find themselves with nuclear weapons and considering what happened to Ukraine after giving up their unintentional nuclear stockpile, they will be a lot more reluctant to give up their weapons.

It's still the best outcome I can think of. A unified Russia under Prigozhin would be an almost guaranteed nuclear exchange between Russia and the west. As much as Putin is hated, Putin has limits that Prigozhin doesn't. Putin misread the tea leaves of world politics regarding Ukraine, but historically he's had a pretty good idea what he could get away with and he stayed behind that line. Prigozhin lacks those instincts, he's a might makes right kind of guy and would likely make the mistake that if he nukes a few western countries they will run away and hide rather than hit Russia back.
 
I wasn't aware of this, but I read somewhere that China signed an agreement with Ukraine in late 2013 that if anyone attacked Ukraine with a nuclear weapon, China would come to their defense. At the time Ukraine was controlled by a Putin puppet and the most likely aggressors (from Ukraine's point of view) was coming from the west. Putin has dialed down the nuclear threats after a discussion with Xi Jinping. Maybe Xi told Putin that they would stand by their 2013 agreement if Russia got nuclear.
China signed on in 1994

China and France gave security assurances for Ukraine in separate documents. China's governmental statement of 4 December 1994 did not call for mandatory consultations if questions arose but only for "fair consultations". France's declaration of 5 December 1994 did not mention consultations

 
Sources report that Iran received a shipment of Western-made anti-tank weapons intercepted by Russia in Ukraine. The concern is that Iran may attempt to reverse engineer these weapons and supply Russia with another source of weapons.

Ukraine War: Russia paid Iran €140m for 'suicide drones' | Sky News

Seems to be the history of war weaponry.

Only way to be prevent other side from acquiring them from the battlefield is not to use them - most here would probably agree a worse option. In the mean time, the West will just need to remain ahead of the technology curve and maybe someday Iran and others democratize.
 
I seriously doubt they will get anything beyond 1, and perhaps not even that.

If they get their territory restored, they won't invade Russia itself to enforce the rest of the "requirements". So there really is no Item #2.

Even if Ukraine wanted to get reparations and some sort of guarantee of non-invasion in the future, it would be impossible to enforce and it's unlikely they would get support from their allies in the West for any efforts beyond their borders.

So "Conditions for Peace Negotiations with Russia" is just one. Restoring territorial integrity.

I am a bit surprised that returning Ukrainian citizens and in particular children is not on this list.
 
Please welcome the next NATO chief, Chrystia Freeland🙏😅

“They were forever grateful to Canada for giving them refuge and they worked hard to bring freedom and democracy to Ukraine,” Freeland wrote. “I am proud to honour their memory today #BlackRibbonDay.”

Her grandfather definitely wasn’t a victim of Nazism. One could infer from this tweet that her grandfather was a victim of totalitarianism, rather than a Nazi collaborator. By serving the Nazis, was he really bringing freedom and democracy to Ukraine? Ukrainian Jews might disagree.

Matters of common interest

Freeland knew otherwise. In 1996, she assisted her uncle, University of Alberta scholar John-Paul Himka, with research for a paper in the Journal of Ukrainian Studies on Krakivski Visti in the context of Ukrainian-Jewish relations.

On "Slava Ukraine!":
The call and response slogan Slava Ukraini! Heroiam slava! Or “Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!” was originally created by fascists and became the official slogan of the OUN in 1941. Here Freeland leads a room of peoples in this slogan from a 2016 speech given to the Ukrainian Canadian Congress in Regina.
...

“I will never answer [that slogan]. I’ve seen so many terrible things signed with that but I study the Holocaust,” says Himka (Remember, this is Chrystia's own uncle). According to Himka the phrase also became repopularized during the Euromaidan protests.



 
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China signed on in 1994

China and France gave security assurances for Ukraine in separate documents. China's governmental statement of 4 December 1994 did not call for mandatory consultations if questions arose but only for "fair consultations". France's declaration of 5 December 1994 did not mention consultations


There was a more specific agreement signed in December 2013, just between China and Ukraine:
China’s ‘unusual’ nuclear pact with Ukraine’s Yanukovich

Sources report that Iran received a shipment of Western-made anti-tank weapons intercepted by Russia in Ukraine. The concern is that Iran may attempt to reverse engineer these weapons and supply Russia with another source of weapons.

Ukraine War: Russia paid Iran €140m for 'suicide drones' | Sky News


It's going to take time to reverse engineer any tech Iran gets. Iran managed to hijack a US drone in Afghanistan and steal it. One of the Iranian drones made today looks like the one they stole. It took them a few years before they were making their own military drones.

Russia doesn't have a few years in this war with Ukraine. The country is destabilizing internally and may fall into civil war within the next year.

Iran also has limitations on what kind of electronics it can get. US AT weapons may use electronics tech the Iranians can't get in any quantity.

I seriously doubt they will get anything beyond 1, and perhaps not even that.

If they get their territory restored, they won't invade Russia itself to enforce the rest of the "requirements". So there really is no Item #2.

Even if Ukraine wanted to get reparations and some sort of guarantee of non-invasion in the future, it would be impossible to enforce and it's unlikely they would get support from their allies in the West for any efforts beyond their borders.

So "Conditions for Peace Negotiations with Russia" is just one. Restoring territorial integrity.

I am a bit surprised that returning Ukrainian citizens and in particular children is not on this list.

There is talk of giving Ukraine the money impounded in the west, which is probably the only money they are going to get from Russia. They may get a backdoor guarantee that it won't happen again. If Russia is left a wreck after a civil war, whether broken into many countries or still held together they aren't going to be in any shape to attack Ukraine for decades.

But I agree some of those points will probably never be met.

Please welcome the next NATO chief, Chrystia Freeland🙏😅



On "Slava Ukraine!":





Being a Ukrainian in WW II is a difficult place to be. Your choices are: support the Germans, support Stalin, or run and hide. There are no other options. If you want to take action, it's going to support one side or the other.

The true opinions of her grandfather are lost to time. Was he supporting the Germans from negative partisanship, ie he wasn't a fan of Nazism but hated the communists more, or was he pro-Nazi. The actions may be the same, but from 80 years on, the motivations are important for context and we don't have that.

This is another example of canceling someone because they had an ancestor who did something questionable without knowing their true motivation. If we want to do that to everyone with questionable ancestors we need to cancel all 8 billion humans on Earth. All of us have ancestors that did something to be canceled for.
 
NASAMS should prove to be a valuable air defense platform from Ukraine. The first 2 systems have been delivered and are in use.

They have medium range capabilities and can handle just about everything outside of balistic missiles - aircraft, drones, and even cruise missiles.

They are compatible with multiple and common missile types that NATO and partner countries use. Cost and supplies are key - the launchers fire comparatively inexpensive missiles originally built for fighter jets and existing supplies are abundant among Ukraine’s allies.



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/us/politics/russia-ukraine-missiles-nasams.html