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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Speaking of old/retro kit, there's a desert full of 'em in Arizona.

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A-10s would be cut to shreds by S-300. It can only operate safely under air superiority.

I have a difficult time to trust Western reporting on the war in Ukraine. We are getting all these reports on how badly the Russians are doing and apparently they can't tell their arses from a hole in the ground, the Ukrainian victims seem to be always civilians, and yet the Ukrainians are desperate for ever more Westerm weapons.

If you had an army of 200,000 people and in less than a year grew it to 1.5 million do you think you would need more weapons? The weapons are mostly to fill out new units that have been created since the war began.

The German press is the most irritating. The very journalists who were attacking every arms project in the past and who didn't serve themselves, are fully gung-ho to support Ukraine. Yet there is no universal support among voters to get drawn ever deeper into that mess. What exactly are the Western war aims in Ukraine?

In the post WW II order, wars of conquest are no longer tolerated. Putin is acting like a neo-Hitler trying to conquer his neighbors and the rest of the world wants to take him down a peg or two. If Russia can't play nice with their neighbors, they need to have their toys taken away.

As Poland seems to be so eager to deliver MBTs to Ukraine, why don't they donate some of the Abrams they are buying from the US?
BTW, the British may kindly pipe down. Germany has taken in a million Ukrainian refugees while the UK has taken in all of 100,000. How about a stronger British contribution in that field?

You mean the ones they won't get until at least llate 2024? They have as many Abrams today as Tesla customers have next gen Roasters. The US State Department approved the sale in December 2022.

Well, not all military plans succeed. Looking at the success of some military campaigns of the US, from Vietnam to Iraq/Afghanistan, what sort of conclusion would you draw there?

In all those wars the US was facing insurgencies. Insurgencies are famously very difficult to put down once they get started and it doesn't matter how sophisticated the stronger power is.

The best way to stop an insurgency is to do an occupation with enough troops to stop it before it gets started. The rule of thumb is a power doing an occupation needs 50 troops per 1000 population to prevent an insurgency. The US never put in enough troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to stop one from happening, and in Vietnam it was taking over a failed counterinsurgency operation from the French who gave up and went home.

Most successful counterinsurgencies are by the government of the country trying to put down a rebellion and that is still patchy. The only time in the last 120 years where I can think of an outside force pulled off anything close to a successful counterinsurgency was the British on the Malay peninsula in the late 1940s.

When GW Bush's administration asked Gen Shinseki for a war plan for Iraq, Shinseki drew up a plan for a successful occupation with enough troops to prevent an insurgency from starting. Rumsfeld didn't like that and ended up firing Shinseki. History has proven Rumsfeld very wrong.

When I looked at Russia's troops pre-war it was obvious to me they weren't bringing enough troops to occupy the country. I did expect Ukraine's government to fall, but expected a long, drawn out insurgency that would result in Russia leaving with its tail between its legs after the Ukrainians bled them out with a million paper cuts. That's what happened to the USSR in Afghanistan in the 80s.

Russia would have needed to bring 2.25 million troops to have any chance at a successful occupation. Instead they brought somewhere around 100,000. If Ukraine's army had been as inept as it was in 2014, the Russians may have been able to take the country, but they wouldn't have been able to stop an insurgency.

Military historians study this stuff. Things have changed throughout history, but a lot of things haven't. One rule that hasn't changed is if an invader can't seal the deal and loses momentum, they rarely get it back. The US doctrine of "shock and awe" has a purpose beyond sounding good in a press briefing. It's to ensure the US does not lose momentum until the objectives have been taken. It's easy for an army like America's to capture ground against another army in the field. It, like all technically advanced armies throughout history, is weak to an insurgency once it gets going.

Before the 20th century a number of colonial powers were able to put down insurgencies because the colonial power had a vast technological advantage and the occupied didn't have the proper concepts to operate covertly and hurt the colonizers with sneak tactics. In the 20th century there is always someone around to teach the occupied covert tactics if they don't figure them out for themselves.

What is going on in Ukraine right now has some insurgency action going on behind Russian lines. Ukrainian partisans have caused trouble for Russian supply in the south, but the bulk of the war is two armies meeting head to head. That is a completely different calculus than an insurgency.
 
A-10s would be cut to shreds by S-300. It can only operate safely under air superiority. [...
But would they?... It seems to me that the Ukrainian Air Force are flying all their attack-missions at tree top level whenever there is a SAM-threat. I don't know exactly how it works... Maybe they do a take up and get just as high as they need to right before launching their munitions at the enemy when doing these attack missions, but then it seems they continue flying tree top after the attack. I fail to see how S-300 can be a threat. Especially since they all seem to have been pulled back by the Dictator's minions due to constantly being taken out of the fight by HARM missiles...

A-10 depleted uranium ammo would of course be bad though...
 
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But would they?... It seems to me that the Ukrainian Air Force are flying all their attack-missions at tree top level whenever there is a SAM-threat. I don't know exactly how it works... Maybe they do a take up and get just as high as they need to right before launching their munitions at the enemy when doing these attack missions, but then it seems they continue flying tree top after the attack. I fail to see how S-300 can be a threat. Especially since they all seem to have been pulled back by the Dictator's minions due to constantly being taken out of the fight by HARM missiles...

A-10 depleted uranium ammo would of course be bad though...
1. Look at the videos of modern MANPAD hits on aircraft in Ukraine, by both sides. Count the time from release to impact. These things are fast ! There is no post-launch evasive tactics discernable, even if the aircraft targets are aware of the launch. A lot of the hits are terminal for the aircraft being targetted.

2. The only tactic that is viable is to be out of the line of sight (LOS) of the MANPAD. But if the forward lines include MANPAD detachments, or are overlooked by MANPAD detachments then that only leaves stand-off weapons as a viable ongoing tactic. If you look at the videos you will see both sides are doing lofted release trajectories of unguided rockets, which are the only stand-off weapons they have that can be delivered in any quantity at low level. The delivery aircraft are pulling up from about 50-feet, and are reaching max 100-150-feet for less than a second and back down and away, ordinarily helicopters but also Su25 Frogfoots.

3. There is very little footage of either helicopters or Frogfoots using cannon succesfully in air-to-ground situations as a common and survivable tactic. That is because the cannon is a LOS weapon that takes the aircraft very predictably into MANPADS threats. (Caveat : we've seen very little night-time video, and there is definitely helo-flying going on by Ukraine at least using NVG systems).

4. Going high to release air-to-ground standoff weapons seems inadvisable in Bukh and S300/S400 MEZs. That rules out a lot of the weapons that NATO has in its air-to-ground inventory.

If F16 or similar were to be supplied, along with the relevant weaponry, and then Ukraine were to be able to use them effectively to destroy/suppress air defences in even just localised areas, then the equation would very much change. Or perhaps much more NVG use.
 

"Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise​

Victory for Ukraine, Democracy for Russia

By Garry Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky

January 20, 2023

The regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin is living on borrowed time. The tide of history is turning, and everything from Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield to the West’s enduring unity and resolve in the face of Putin’s aggression points to 2023 being a decisive year. If the West holds firm, Putin’s regime will likely collapse in the near future. [..."

 
You mean the ones they won't get until at least llate 2024? They have as many Abrams today as Tesla customers have next gen Roasters. The US State Department approved the sale in December 2022.

Guess what? I'm sure that the US could arrange for an early delivery. I'm sure the US has plenty of Abrams available. It's cute what arguments we are getting, why the Abrams supposedly isn't "suitable": not available, too complicated, too gas guzzling, whatever.
As to those countries that offer to deliver Leopard 2 to Ukraine, we know pretty well that these countries wouldn't pick up the bill for the maintenance and the spare parts. PiS Poland is as rabidly anti-German as they are anti-Russian. When Germany offered to send Army units with Patriot systems to Poland to assist with their air defence after that missile incident, they immediately suggested that these units should be sent to Ukraine, well knowing that the German Army couldn't be posted there. Yet apparently Poland considered this worth the political point scoring.
As to the requirements of the Ukrainian army, we have for weeks been fed reports that the Russians were basically routed, that Ukraine had more tanks than before the war (as they captured all these Russian tanks) and that they were going to re-take the Crimea. Now that isn't true all of a sudden, because they don't get Leopard tanks?
 

"Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise​

Victory for Ukraine, Democracy for Russia

By Garry Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky

January 20, 2023

The regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin is living on borrowed time. The tide of history is turning, and everything from Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield to the West’s enduring unity and resolve in the face of Putin’s aggression points to 2023 being a decisive year. If the West holds firm, Putin’s regime will likely collapse in the near future. [..."

Yes, and if only Putin falls, then it will all be milk and honey and the lions will lie with the lambs. Colour me sceptical. Yes, Putin is a thug, yet when he falls, then he will most likely be replaced by another thug.
 
Yes, and if only Putin falls, then it will all be milk and honey and the lions will lie with the lambs. Colour me sceptical. Yes, Putin is a thug, yet when he falls, then he will most likely be replaced by another thug.
1. Is there a criminal worse than the Russian Dictator currently alive on this planet?
2. If the Russian Dictator falls there seems to be quite the chance for a rather considerable power struggle. Hopefully that will cause massive dissent inside of Russia. And out of such a massive dissent real Democracy could hopefully stand a chance.

Regardless: I can't wait for the day when the Russian Dictator looses power.
 
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The rule of thumb is a power doing an occupation needs 50 troops per 1000 population to prevent an insurgency.
So why didn't Crimean insurgency throw out the hated Russians?

"Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise​

Victory for Ukraine, Democracy for Russia

"Don't Fear Mullah Omar's Demise"
Victory for the US, Democracy for Afghanistan!

There are a number of people who have pedigrees in this stuff like retired generals Mark Hertling, Ben Hodges, and Mick Ryan, or professional military historians like Phillips O'Brian who have been very in sync with my independent evaluation from the start.

I didn't find any of them until the war was a couple of months old and I started reading Twitter. I concluded Russia had lost by about day 3 of the war.
LOL. You were already quoting Mark Hertling on Twitter the first day of the war.

Russia has thrown over 100,000 troops at Soledar and Bakhmut. The Ukrainians have maybe 10,000 (out of a million mobilized now) defending those towns
media1-s.jpg
Source: Military Land Deployment Map - bigger
I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.
So Bakhmut is either defended by 1% (10k out of 1 million) or 50% of of Ukraine's army. Glad we got that nailed down /s
 
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1. Is there a criminal worse than the Russian Dictator currently alive on this planet?
2. If the Russian Dictator falls there seems to be quite the chance for a rather considerable power struggle. Hopefully that will cause massive dissent inside of Russia. And out of such a massive dissent real Democracy could hopefully stand a chance.

Regardless: I can't wait for the day when the Russian Dictator looses power.
Unfortunately there is no lack of brutal dictators on this planet, Putin is just able to swing the biggest hammer.
When was the last time we saw "real democracy" in Russia?
 
So why didn't Crimean insurgency throw out the hated Russians?


"Don't Fear Mullah Omar's Demise"
Victory for the US, Democracy for Afghanistan!


LOL. You were already quoting Mark Hertling on Twitter the first day of the war.



So Bakhmut is either defended by 1% (10k out of 1 million) or 50% of of Ukraine's army. Glad we got that nailed down /s
You'll find wdolson typically just pulls figures out of thin air, my favorite one being that Russia would have depleted its munitions stockpiles around April / May '22 (invasion started in Feb '22) and the war would be over.

Oh and somehow Vlad Zelenskyy went from one of the most corrupt leaders in the world to our resident crime fighting spider man over night. I'm sure he and his buddies are loving these aid packages the world keeps handing out.
 
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Unfortunately there is no lack of brutal dictators on this planet, Putin is just able to swing the biggest hammer.
To me, "being able to swing the biggest hammer" is a massive problem. Especially if that "hammer" includes the biggest nuclear arsenal on this planet. And no other brutal dictator has done what the Russian dictator has done.
When was the last time we saw "real democracy" in Russia?
As I understand it, the answer to that question is: Never. And?...
 
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You'll find wdolson typically just pulls figures out of thin air, my favorite one being that Russia would have depleted its munitions stockpiles around April / May '22 (invasion started in Feb '22) and the war would be over.

Oh and somehow Vlad Zelenskyy went from one of the most corrupt leaders in the world to our resident crime fighting spider man over night. I'm sure he and his buddies are loving these aid packages the world keeps handing out.
Stop quoting your own posts to take advantage of the forum bug that prevents blocking a user.
 
Russia isn't Afghanistan.
No, it's worse because Russia has nukes.

It's fantasy to think democracy will spontaneously spring up in a destabilized Russia. They have a cultural affinity for strongmen and have bad memories of the one time they tried democracy. Containment is the least-worst option here. Same was true with Saddam, for that matter.

Oh and somehow Vlad Zelenskyy went from one of the most corrupt leaders in the world to our resident crime fighting spider man over night. I'm sure he and his buddies are loving these aid packages the world keeps handing out.
Ukraine inherited a culture of corruption from their Soviet Union days. Prior to the 2014 Revolution of Dignity they were rated as more corrupt than Russia, but they've since improved and were rated solidly above Russia by 2021. Still a long way to go, of course. Zelensky ran on an ant-corruption platform, fought for anti-corruption laws favored by the IMF, moved Ukraine westward (his one true sin in the eyes of Putin), etc.
 
You and your Putin apologist buddy have posted neither.
@JRP3, @wdolson & @X Fan and everybody else... PUL-EEZE stop feeding the trolls I already ignore??? Thank you.

IMHO there should be a national holiday in celebration of the Ignore option. Make it concurrent with a new national holiday for voting day in the US.
 
How do you think those memories stack up to their current reality?...
It would probably take fifty years of education and open source news to have a chance at a viable democracy in Russia. It worked quickly in Japan and Germany because they were occupied countries and the Allies had the will to make it happen. There's no way the West is going to occupy Russia, and there are far too many pro-Putin politicians.