If I were the rebels, my greatest effort would be convincing other Russians to join the rebellion.
They couldn’t have appeared out of nowhere by surprise, so surely they’re in contact with US military sci-ops’ brightest and best to achieve that end.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
If I were the rebels, my greatest effort would be convincing other Russians to join the rebellion.
They couldn’t have appeared out of nowhere by surprise, so surely they’re in contact with US military sci-ops’ brightest and best to achieve that end.
Apparently another incursion into Russian territory
This should be very sobering for Russia, if Ukraine didn't need continued Western support they might be able to make a run for Moscow. Tit for tat. Washington and most of the West don't want that though so we have this weird case where Ukraine has to "defend". But seems they have plenty of Russian volunteers willing to make raids across the border to force the Russians to withdraw an adequate force to protect their borders.
The illustration in the reply is the big eye opener.
This should be very sobering for Russia, if Ukraine didn't need continued Western support they might be able to make a run for Moscow. Tit for tat. Washington and most of the West don't want that though so we have this weird case where Ukraine has to "defend". But seems they have plenty of Russian volunteers willing to make raids across the border to force the Russians to withdraw an adequate force to protect their borders.
The illustration in the reply is the big eye opener.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Others posted sources, but the way they are worded obviously still gives some flexibility to Ukraine. I doubt the various governments will have a hard written agreement, given war is messy and there are probably situations where Ukraine may be forced to defensively use some Western equipment on targets inside Russia borders (for example a long while back I discussed counter-battery fire for example) and they probably don't want things to unravel for isolated incidents.Do we have some kind of source to back this up?
Here's Spokesperson Matthew Miller at the Department of State daily press briefing, May 22:
"...] QUESTION: So, in Belgorod there were – there are obviously these reports, and there’s images online that suggest American weapons have been used. So, I know you don’t know, but do you support U.S. weapons being used on Russian territory? [...]
MR MILLER: [...] And then with respect to the broader policy question, we have made very clear to the Ukrainians that we don’t enable or encourage attacks outside Ukrainians’ borders, but I do think it’s important to take a step back and remind everyone, and remind the world, that it – of course it is Russia that launched this war. It’s Russia that continues to launch attacks on civilians in Ukraine. It’s Russia that’s targeted schools and hospitals and civilian infrastructure. So, it is up to Ukraine to decide how they want to conduct their military operations, but it is Russia that has been the aggressor in this war. [My underline.] [..."
Department Press Briefing – May 22, 2023 - United States Department of State
1:31 p.m. EDT MR MILLER: Hello, everyone. Sorry for being a few minutes late. QUESTION: Yes, well, we won’t hold it against you, your first day on the job and you show up 15 minutes — MR MILLER: Are you going to let me speak, before we get into grilling me, Matt? QUESTION: Of course. […]www.state.gov
And here in motion picture. Fast forward to the 26:05 mark:
Seems that Ukraine is shaping operations by attacking Russia to force Russia to pull reserves from the south, so Ukraine will be able to perform their counter offensive with less resistance.
Probably many regions in Russia are looking at the development, considering their options for when the Russian army falls.
BitJam
Active Member
I was about to post this. What a total ship-show for Russia! This was a nasty surprise for them, hopefully the first of many.
I doubt it will happen but I wonder if Ukraine would be able to get into Luhansk through Russia using the old "go around the defenses" maneuver.
The defenses are substantial, but we don't know how well manned they are. If the Russians don't have enough troops to man all those defense they are pretty useless.
The ease at which the rebels got through the defenses in Belgorod may be an indication of how poor Russian defenses actually are.
They probably are, but I don't know how successful they will be. Most Russians are pretty apathetic about politics.
Getting from Ukraine to Moscow with an army is not an easy task. That's a very long distance through enemy territory. Without western help Ukraine doesn't have a prayer of making it, even if the Russian army is flat on its back. Russia still has nuclear weapons and they will use them if Moscow is at risk. Additionally a foreign power invading Russian territory would rally the Russians around the flag. Russians invading Russia is more political and less likely to ignite passions in the Russian people.
BitJam
Active Member
Here is more info on the ship-show going on in Russia (from a more partisan, and sometimes less reliable source).
Russians are freaking out - Free Russia Legion captured another 2 villages in the Belgorod
I'm struck be the childlike joy on the faces of the Freedom of Russia Legion.
BTW: I saw a great tweet:
Russians are freaking out - Free Russia Legion captured another 2 villages in the Belgorod
I'm struck be the childlike joy on the faces of the Freedom of Russia Legion.
BTW: I saw a great tweet:
Why can't Russia just give up Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk for peace?
I noticed the same thing those, Freedom of Russia Legion guys seem very happy and relaxed, they can't think that they are in imminent danger or they are very cool customers.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I think its even better than that now with the long-range strike capabilities (HIMARS, Storm Shadow). In order to move troops and heavy weapons, Russians have to concentrate those forces on known, fixed rail lines and logistic hubs. This makes tempting targets for long-range stand-off munitions. They could loose all the forces they choose to move. If I were a war-planner, I'd leave one escape route open directly to the East. Not that Russia's command structure is smart enough to take it.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Some links that folk may find useful
rusi.org
Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine
Russian tactics are changing as lessons are learned from military failures in the war in Ukraine.
rusi.org
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Russian Dude discusses Chechen forces
Operator Starsky talks about recent Russian losses, the staged vehicles in a ditch, and a laughable display of a Russian general pretending to lead his troops into battle.
Operator Starsky talks about recent Russian losses, the staged vehicles in a ditch, and a laughable display of a Russian general pretending to lead his troops into battle.
Their hands are not even dirty. They should seriously sell tshirts.
"my dad invaded Russia and all he brought me was this tshirts"
They could bring back all those washing machines the Russkies stole when they hightailed it out.
Ironic that invading Russia increases life expectancy versus soldiering in Ukraine.
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The perfect diversionary attack is one that an enemy cannot ignore. Russia absolutely must do something about these attacks and so long as their border is under-fortified, it is likely there will be additional, similar attacks.
Up until now, Ukraine has been forced to fortify their entire border with Russia and Belarus because they were worried about a Russian offensive from the north. Apparently Russia did not feel similarly obliged to fortify their border or were simply incompetent at it.
Seems to me like the guys with nice cushy/ safe military posts in Belgorod are likely the ones who had the connections to avoid getting shipped to the front lines. I guess a good bribe doesn't bring as much value as it used to.
This is supposed to be Russia's response to the Challenger, Leopard II and Abrams. The T-14 Armata.
31 M1A1's being refurbed in Germany for training of Ukrainian crews. This is just a start.
Putin did not make Netherlands' decision to send F-16s to Ukraine difficult:
