Russia/Ukraine conflict

[lafrisbee]

Directly Tesla may be largely unaffected by the curren events. Competitors are already being affected:

VW, Renault And Stellantis Plants In Russia Could Be Affected By Western Sanctions | Carscoops

Many automakers have factories and assembly plants in Russia, whose people buy thousands of western cars each year

www.carscoops.com

There can be TSLA consequences due to nickel and, aluminum (not up yet) from Russia and neon from Ukraine. The neon is most serious since Ukraine is the largest producer:

ASML CEO: US China export restrictions could affect 5% of order backlog

New restrictions by the United States government on exports of semiconductor technology could affect up to 5% of ASML Holding's order backlog, CEO Peter Wennink said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

These and other uncertainties will definitely accentuate TSLA volatility despite the high probability that Tesla will navigate all this very well and has no present distribution in the affected countries.

Obviously, detailed discussion belongs elsewhere, not TMC. These factors are now affecting trading activity and TSLA also, so the commodity price and supply consequences can be material considerations. Explicitly the neon supply does repeatedly arise, but ASML has already compensated quite effectively and they are the largest player relevant to Tesla chip supplies.

OK I am going to go on a diatribe, and it IS TSLA-related though the Mods' minds will wiggle and bounce.
"The World" is acting against Russia in the financial arena. Whether wrong or right I am sure I am not the best person to answer that. But what I have taken to heart is that my own actions are all I can be responsible for. I believe in "Think Globally, Act Locally."
If everyone did that the conflict would end IF we knew what products were and were not connected to Putin's Country. It wouldn't take a month. Yes it may cause great hardship to some but the actions of a united "Cancel Culture" would cripple Russia in its tracks.
Our Governments and "World Peace" organizations need to broadcast which businesses and products have even just the slightest Russian connections, and offer alternatives like the dieticians do when it comes to eating. "Eat this Alabama Catfish egg puree instead Russianski Caviar."
The easiest one to create and use would be a listing of all the major gasoline companies from the most to the least connections with Russia. Even encourage picketers outside the "russian" ones. Boycott companies that keep a presence in Russia.
So create the list... Right now I see TSLA as being extremely non-russian. Buy TSLA Bonds.
But hey, I know, humans as a whole are garbage.

 

[CHGolferJim]

China will continue to play the long game like it did with Hong Kong. If it takes them 20, 50 or 100 years, Taiwan will eventually be absorbed. There's nothing to be gained at the moment by damaging Taiwan's manufacturing infrastructure.

Despite outward obtuseness regarding the Ukraine invasion, I suspect that as long as the world economy is not damaged, that China is pleased to see Russia's adventurism. It is confounding the West and may eventually weaken Russia further. What's not to like if you're China.

China actually has more strategic need to co-exist with the West than it does with a rapidly declining Russia, especially as the post-fossil fuel transition proceeds. Confrontation and co-existence in balance.

 

[JRP3]

Very quickly, he said, the Ukrainian military would be incapacitated, its leadership unable to coordinate a defense and supply the front. After that, he said, responsibility would fall to frontline commanders to carry on the fight alone.

“They will hold up as long as there are bullets,” Budanov said. “They’ll be able to use what they have in their hands. But believe me, without delivery of reserves, there’s not an army in the world that can hold out.”

Ukraine's Military Is Badly Outgunned by Russia Despite the West's Support

Even with the tons of weapons, ammunition and equipment delivered to Ukraine by Western allies in just the last few weeks, the Ukrainian military is outgunned by the larger, more technologically advanced Russian forces that have launched a multipronged invasion. Back in December, the commander...

www.yahoo.com

 

[jbcarioca]

China actually has more strategic need to co-exist with the West than it does with a rapidly declining Russia, especially as the post-fossil fuel transition proceeds. Confrontation and co-existence in balance.

That may be a trifle too simplistic. China as jabloomf1230 said, plays a long game. They share a very long border with Russia and have dealt with them since Russia has existed, and before. It is not in any way purely commercial. They have had periods of enmity, periods of cooperation in shared goals but never have they viewed each other as just transactional. Most of the world, more or less, that can be true. Not Russia.

At the moment China benefits indirectly whenever Putin gets away with regaining lost territory. When that happens the impediments for China in the Spratleys reduces or just vanishes. In the short term it's not about Taiwan. They can wait. After all the Chinese business people of Taiwan are already co-opted very nicely with their commercial interests.

For Tesla, remember Tesla? They are in an increasingly nice position by being nominally American but fully committed to China as both source and destination, just like Apple, GM (remember they'd fail completely without China) and most other major corporations. Thus China is primarily concerned with nice cover for recovering coveted territory.

Russia, given all that, is crucial to the China strategy. Economics are incidental.
VW, Mercedes, Stellantis, Renault all need Russia, with BMW only slightly less. The industrial world wants palladium, nickel and aluminum. Europe desperately wants gas, and the whole world wants oil...by the way, everyone wants Ukranian neon.
Given that the world wants to talk tough and not upset their sources. Sanctions will really look tough, but not too tough.
Desired outcome for nearly everyone: get rid of Putin and have someone who knows his place. Isn't that more likely?

 

[samppa]

Russia's central bank bans short selling as stocks plunge | Fox Business

Russia’s central bank said Thursday that it ordered brokers to stop allowing traders to place bets against Russian shares, a practice known as short-selling.

www.foxbusiness.com

So this is how Russia handles short selling. I thought about shorting russian stocks yesterday, but couldn't figure a good way to do it.

 

[canoemore]

@TheTalkingMule Looks like you might get your wish:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496900785510174721

 

[TheTalkingMule]

@TheTalkingMule Looks like you might get your wish:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496900785510174721

Nice. Just talk about it out in the open to make traders think twice. Let everyone do the math.

And speaking of oil......I almost forgot today is EIA US crude inventory report day! Stockpiles up 4.5Mb over last week. Half of that in net was a 2Mb release from the SPR. So without that release, stockpiles would have increased ~2Mb this week.

This is precisely the kind of thing I'd like to see, just more coordinated and part of a defined plan. If there's an increase in commercial crude supply this week (as there was), then no SPR release. Perhaps even purchase for the SPR if the oversupply is huge. If there's an 8Mb drop next week, commit to releasing 12Mb the following week. You don't have to release, the commitment can be reconciled against the next week's market day-to-day, but be willing to negate that shortfall and then some.

The thing people need to understand is that global crude has been in permanent oversupply since 2015. And it's never going back. To solve this problem, OPEC went so far as to invite Wall Street hedge fund guys into their meetings starting in the spring of 2017. In those meetings it was made clear to OPEC+ they needed to limit exports to the US since we're the only transparent market in the world. That would create an apparent shortfall in US supply, WTI would rise, and Brent would follow. Since we don't have OPEC's ability to dictate domestic supply, this has worked out fine until now. OPEC retained all the power of the "swing producer" even though that role had technically been shifted over to US frackers.

If the US govt can coordinate supply even slightly, we take all the power related to being the primary swing producer. I know that's logistically and perhaps ethically grey, but it's utterly doable and wouldn't take that much actual effort if set up correctly.

Some would argue this whole thing isn't about oil, I would argue that nearly EVERYTHING is about oil.

 

[canoemore]

Nice. Just talk about it out in the open to make traders think twice. Let everyone do the math.

And speaking of oil......I almost forgot today is EIA US crude inventory report day! Stockpiles up 4.5Mb over last week. Half of that in net was a 2Mb release from the SPR. So without that release, stockpiles would have increased ~2Mb this week.

This is precisely the kind of thing I'd like to see, just more coordinated and part of a defined plan. If there's an increase in commercial crude supply this week (as there was), then no SPR release. Perhaps even purchase for the SPR if the oversupply is huge. If there's an 8Mb drop next week, commit to releasing 12Mb the following week. You don't have to release, the commitment can be reconciled against the next week's market day-to-day, but be willing to negate that shortfall and then some.

The thing people need to understand is that global crude has been in permanent oversupply since 2015. And it's never going back. To solve this problem, OPEC went so far as to invite Wall Street hedge fund guys into their meetings starting in the spring of 2017. In those meetings it was made clear to OPEC+ they needed to limit exports to the US since we're the only transparent market in the world. That would create an apparent shortfall in US supply, WTI would rise, and Brent would follow. Since we don't have OPEC's ability to dictate domestic supply, this has worked out fine until now. OPEC retained all the power of the "swing producer" even though that role had technically been shifted over to US frackers.

If the US govt can coordinate supply even slightly, we take all the power related to being the primary swing producer. I know that's logistically and perhaps ethically grey, but it's utterly doable and wouldn't take that much actual effort if set up correctly.

Some would argue this whole thing isn't about oil, I would argue that nearly EVERYTHING is about oil.

Big agree with your last sentence

 

[Artful Dodger]

Russian forces take Chernobyl zone, Ukraine says | www.washingtonpost.com › 2022/02/24 › ukraine-russia-chernobyl-risk

 

[jabloomf1230]

It's time for Europe and the Americas to go back to a remote working environment. This will have some stabilizing impact on oil prices.

 

[Tyler34]

It's time for Europe and the Americas to go back to a remote working environment. This will have some stabilizing impact on oil prices.

I mentioned this to my partner last night. We are both still remote but it would be nice to see some coordinated work remotely for a month from some big companies.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is critical, I hope it is true:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496949071810027532

Ukraine needs a few short term wins to get better organised, get more military hardware and let the Russians know they are in for a long fight.

 

[wdolson]

That may be a trifle too simplistic. China as jabloomf1230 said, plays a long game. They share a very long border with Russia and have dealt with them since Russia has existed, and before. It is not in any way purely commercial. They have had periods of enmity, periods of cooperation in shared goals but never have they viewed each other as just transactional. Most of the world, more or less, that can be true. Not Russia.

At the moment China benefits indirectly whenever Putin gets away with regaining lost territory. When that happens the impediments for China in the Spratleys reduces or just vanishes. In the short term it's not about Taiwan. They can wait. After all the Chinese business people of Taiwan are already co-opted very nicely with their commercial interests.

For Tesla, remember Tesla? They are in an increasingly nice position by being nominally American but fully committed to China as both source and destination, just like Apple, GM (remember they'd fail completely without China) and most other major corporations. Thus China is primarily concerned with nice cover for recovering coveted territory.

Russia, given all that, is crucial to the China strategy. Economics are incidental.
VW, Mercedes, Stellantis, Renault all need Russia, with BMW only slightly less. The industrial world wants palladium, nickel and aluminum. Europe desperately wants gas, and the whole world wants oil...by the way, everyone wants Ukranian neon.
Given that the world wants to talk tough and not upset their sources. Sanctions will really look tough, but not too tough.
Desired outcome for nearly everyone: get rid of Putin and have someone who knows his place. Isn't that more likely?

If Russia changed leaders to somebody who was pretty much the same domestically, but less aggressive internationally, the world would probably be happy to leave Russia alone.

This is critical, I hope it is true:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496949071810027532

Ukraine needs a few short term wins to get better organised, get more military hardware and let the Russians know they are in for a long fight.

Unfortunately it's probably a short lived victory, but it is a shot in the arm for Ukrainian forces. Ultimately the Ukrainians can't hod out against Russia in a conventional war and both sides know it. Where Ukraine starts winning is in the insurgency.

 

[MC3OZ]

If Russia changed leaders to somebody who was pretty much the same domestically, but less aggressive internationally, the world would probably be happy to leave Russia alone.



Unfortunately it's probably a short lived victory, but it is a shot in the arm for Ukrainian forces. Ultimately the Ukrainians can't hod out against Russia in a conventional war and both sides know it. Where Ukraine starts winning is in the insurgency.

I know, but the Ukrainians seem to have a lot more faith in their army than everyone else does..

Putin is obviously hoping for a quick win, I don't think conquering a country with a population of 40 Million people is that easy.. planes and tanks are expensive, and the financial cost of the war will mount the longer it drags on.

The also need to buy time for aid like this to arrive:-

“What we’re doing with Ukraine is making sure that we have humanitarian assistance to help the people, that we have lethal defence weapons going into Ukraine to the tune of $US600 million for them to fight their own fight,” Pelosi told reporters in San Francisco.

If it gets there too late, it will not be as useful...

Specifically what I am saying here is a missile to destroy a plane or tank costs a lot less than the tank or plane it destroys.
So in economic terms, defensive weapons cost a lot less than offensive weapons...

The real question is if defensive weapons can be in place and used by sufficiently trained personnel in time.
Any plane or tank Ukraine destroys evens the odds slightly, and delays progress,

The next 24 hours is crucial, I know the Ukrainians are partially only keeping morale high, but I think they start with high morale and motivation.

 

[JRP3]

Be aware that there is apparently some old and/or unrelated footage being attributed to the current conflict:

https://twitter.com/i/events/1496815373936574469

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If Russia changed leaders to somebody who was pretty much the same domestically, but less aggressive internationally, the world would probably be happy to leave Russia alone.



Unfortunately it's probably a short lived victory, but it is a shot in the arm for Ukrainian forces. Ultimately the Ukrainians can't hod out against Russia in a conventional war and both sides know it. Where Ukraine starts winning is in the insurgency.

Iraq and Afghanistan are proof that Ukraine can keep Russia in a bloody guerilla war for years and years if they want to. The Russians know it too, that's why they want to get this done very quickly and get the hell out of there. I still don't know what Putin's actual plan is, his army can't occupy this whole country of 41 million people indefinitely and there is no way Ukraine will capitulate to a puppet government once the Russians leave, they'll just overthrow it again like they did in 2005 and 2014. Putin definitely did not think this one through, but then again neither did the US when we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.

Depends on the parts of Europe. Some areas can deep freeze, for others it means cold.

Also affects some food supply.

I expect strategic changes in use of natural gas to increase supplies in colder countries. Suspension of coal plant closures and ramping coal use to free up some natural gas supplies, for example.

On the plus side, this is all the excuse politicians need to accelerate deployment of renewable electricity generation and energy efficiency measures.

41% of Europe's natural gas comes from Russia. I'm sure the Europeans are thrilled to know that every time they heat their houses, they are directly funding the invasion of Ukraine. Russian petroleum exports is a helluva drug but the Europeans must surely realize directly funding the hostile country invading and destabilizing Europe is actually not a good idea and maybe they need to stop?

 

[STS-134]

What kind of impact would a Russian invasion of Ukraine have on tesla the company? Im not asking about short term stock market moves. I've heard it might impact the silicon supply chain for the already short supply of chips? Seems Teslas are barely sold there so there would not be much impact there. Additional port congestion perhaps? I'm struggling to think of anything that would have a material impact. Seems it would give spaceX a boost in public opinion, so maybe tesla by proxy?

One thing it could do to Tesla owners is that the EV Hub CCS adapters, which people are using as an alternative to the official Tesla adapter that's only available in South Korea right now, ship out of Ukraine. Tesla US CCS1/CCS2 (400A)

 

[jabloomf1230]

Iraq and Afghanistan are proof that Ukraine can keep Russia in a bloody guerilla war for years and years if they want to. The Russians know it too, that's why they want to get this done very quickly and get the hell out of there. I still don't know what Putin's actual plan is, his army can't occupy this whole country of 41 million people indefinitely and there is no way Ukraine will capitulate to a puppet government once the Russians leave, they'll just overthrow it again like they did in 2005 and 2014. Putin definitely did not think this one through, but then again neither did the US when we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.

41% of Europe's natural gas comes from Russia. I'm sure the Europeans are thrilled to know that every time they heat their houses, they are directly funding the invasion of Ukraine. Russian petroleum exports is a helluva drug but the Europeans must surely realize directly funding the hostile country invading and destabilizing Europe is actually not a good idea and maybe they need to stop?

41% sounds like a big number but it represents 8% of EU overall energy use. That's still a big number, but it is a bit more manageable than trying to cope with managing a 41% loss.

 

[MC3OZ]

41% sounds like a big number but it represents 8% of EU overall energy use. That's still a big number, but it is a bit more manageable than trying to cope with managing a 41% loss.

In most countries gas is used for home heating/hot water which is hard to replace, and in the electricity gird it used to covert the intermittency of renewables.

There are may RE + Storage options that can cover the second option, or maybe EU countries need to pause some of the closures of coal or nuclear plants.

Time to fast track the solutions which will replace gas, for lots of reasons.,

 

[UnknownSoldier]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496979486184972289

The Russians really don't know what they are doing. Surely they might have realized capturing these guys at any cost would have been preferable to martyring them like the 300 Spartans and boosting the morale of the enemy?