But this eventually just gets us someone else like Putin.
I'm more bold in my wants - I want an uprising of the Russian people and in that revolution the people gut the FSB and all other organizations in Russia of similar ilk that prevent the spread of democracy for the people.
Ya know . . . since we are putting our wish lists out there.
The ideal scenario for both Russia long term and the world would be for the Navalny faction to come to power, but nobody in the current power structure would allow that. The only scenario I see where a pro-democracy movement comes to power in Russia is if there is a civil war like the Russian Revolution and the pro-democracy faction is the last one standing.
Another scenario is a break up of Russia.
Sounds really biased, as there is no scenario in which Russia wins and sanctions are lifted. At least I personally cancel Russia until they pay reparations and give independence to clearly Ukrainan regions (up to local vote if necessary). Furthermore, RF should remain sanctioned as long as they do not allow freedom of speech and protest to their own population.
My analysis since the beginning of the war has been congruent with the commentators like this guy. I have not seen a scenario for a Russian win in this war short of wiping Ukraine from the map with nukes from the first day of the war. The Russians did not bring a large enough force to hold Ukraine even if they did beat the AFU on the battlefield. The Ukrainians were prepared form day 1 to have a full on insurgency if Russia managed to take over. You can't win an insurgency unless you have enough boots on the ground and the Russian army doesn't have enough boots (literally from what we have subsequently found out about their shortages).
Russia is a fourth rate military power with a second rate array of military hardware. They have lots of equipment, but it's been badly maintained and that is coming back to haunt them. Their training is abysmal.
In 2012 they restructured their frontline combat forces around the flexible Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) concept. Each BTG is a little packet of combined arms that is supposedly able to handle any task. A well trained western military that constantly drills could have pulled this off. It's the ideal structure for a country like the Netherlands with a small but very professional army.
But the Russians are abysmal at training and they never trained the troops to use this unit structure. As a result they have gone blundering into Ukraine without a clue what they were doing. The entire BTG concept is completely wrong for the training level of their military. Some of the elite units like the airborne troops and the special units they sent to Syria can manage this structure, but those units are mostly hollowed out now. It's estimated the Marine units that fought in the north took 90% casualties. The airborne units took high losses too, mostly wasted in penny packet attempts to seize things like air fields on day 1.
Now they are feeding in green recruits (they did their twice yearly conscription round early this year) and reservists who are not trained like western reservists. Western armies have regular training for reservists, Russia doesn't. Their large reserve is just people who were conscripts and were released from their year of service within the last couple of years. They have not been anywhere near anything military since getting out. What they did learn is now rusty and many are probably out of physical shape.
That's the troops that are going to be fed into Donbas to try and secure that region.
Another factor is the Russian truck shortage. They had a substantially fewer number of cargo trucks than they should have at the beginning of this war. The ratio of frontline combat vehicles to trucks was much lower than any western army. They also are very heavy on rocket artillery and tanks, both of which use massive amounts of supply per unit. The Ukrainians have been taking out Russian trucks at a steady rate combined with losses from breakdowns.
There is an American who rose to prominence when he explained why Russian truck tires were failing. He's and expert on military trucks, especially tires. In a later article he talked about his experiences rehabbing US trucks in 2004-2008 that had worn out in Iraq. He made the point that in war truck wear rate goes up 10X to 20X. The US is hyper about truck maintenance as well as resting drivers, but the trucks were wearing out at a frightening rate. 1 year into the war many trucks looked 20 years old and were completely worn out.
He estimated the Russians will be completely out of trucks by the end of April. No trucks, no supply, no supply, no ability to do anything except dig in and die of starvation. They started the war with a shortage of trucks, at this point they have a critical shortage of trucks, in another month they will have virtually none left.
Russia massively miscalculated and started a war they could not win short of nuking Ukraine until it glows.
. Having researched R.Unz he’s clearly a *sugar* stirrer of a world class level, a Putin paid zealot maybe.
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