Point made, lets hope we don't see the buffoon back.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
X Fan
Active Member
American political class is bereft of talent, on both sides; worst political class combined in my 6 decade+ life.
Guy in place now is a figurehead, not a leader.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I thought Barack Obama was pretty awesome.
He was exceptional. His only real fault was drawing lines in the sand that he wasn't prepared to defend. I may not agree with everything Joe does and says, but he's handling this conflict about as well as could be expected.
My Russian friend (who recently managed to get out of Russia) recommends MediaZone as an Independent Russian media outlet for coverage of what's going on in Russia. It's actually banned/blocked in Russia but they have found workarounds. I found this article on what is happening in Russian border lands On the edge of war. The southwest of Russia has become a frontline zone with shelling, explosions and refugee flows Not clear on who is shelling Russian territory. Do the Ukrainians have the ability to be doing this?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
And what are the French and German political class doing?
Other than trying to undermine Ukraine and give Putin a "face saving" partial victory?
To encourage him to come back for another bite of Eastern Europe in a few years with a refurbished Army.
Other than trying to undermine Ukraine and give Putin a "face saving" partial victory?
To encourage him to come back for another bite of Eastern Europe in a few years with a refurbished Army.
I don't think I ever predicted the collapse of the House of Saud. They have done a much better job of shoring up support for it among the Saudi people and their alliance with the Wahabbists have control over the minds of the people. The royal family is fantastically rich, but they have also allowed a fair bit of the oil wealth to trickle down and they are investing in infrastructure for when the oil is gone.
Saudi citizens are not committing sabotage to any significant degree. Russia has had a large number of sabotage cases in the last few weeks. That's a sign that Russia has people all over the country who are not happy with the regime and are doing violence to make themselves heard.
The men in their 20s and 30s are also the core money makers in a society. Russia has a massive pensioner class who expects their checks every month. They need all the young people working to generate tax revenue to pay the pensioners. With the sanctions they also need to figure out how to make a lot of basic goods that they haven't made for 30 years. That means investment in factories, supply chains, and transport. At a time when they have destroyed a large number of their civilian trucks in Ukraine.
Russia's manufacturing base has also shrunk quite a bit since the Soviet days. Their capacity to make weapons has decreased. The sanctions have shut down much of their armaments production and sabotage has shut down a lot of the rest. If they do expand the armaments industry they're going to need a lot of those young men to build armaments.
When the Russians started to try and mobilize more troops for this war, they ran into terrible supply problems in the basics: uniforms, boots, and small arms. Reservists have been seen with WW II era rifles and helmets. New recruits have been shown in uniforms that look like plastic overalls with kid's wellington boots like you would but at Walmart.
People say China will just provide it for them. China has cut back goods to Russia by 27% since the war started and they continue to cut back. China would like to see Russia break up. They will swoop in with their Belt and Road and take economic control of Siberia.
China may be fine with dictators, but they don't like crazy dictators who cause trouble for their neighbors. Especially when they are one of the neighbors.
I'd have to run it through Google translate... The Ukrainians have taken back the border from the Ukraine/Belarus/Russia border to Kharkhiv and today they reached the border on the other side of Kharkhiv. The main supply rail line for the Russian forces in northern Donbas is now within artillery range of the Ukrainians. That's going to force the Russians around the long way for supply which will put more strain on their failing truck fleet.
The Ukrainians have been excellent at identifying the Russians' Achilles heels and exploiting the weaknesses
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
Doggydogworld
Active Member
A lot of this is general nervousness, exacerbated by Russian media. It's one thing for a cozy Muscovite to believe blatant propaganda about a limited "special operation", quite another for a border town resident who hears artillery every night. It's easy to believe rumors when you see and hear firsthand events that the press denies. This damaged farmhouse in Zhuravlevka is probably less than a mile from the border, just north of Kharkiv where fighting has been fierce.
Some reports, like the SU-24 allegedly bombing Karachev 100+ km from the border, are just paranoid residents freaking out over a friendly flyover. Mortar fire on the border in the Trubchevsky district is probably legit, though.
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Apparently this happened. The US sent a portable Burger King to Ukraine
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I don't think I claimed that you specifically predicted the fall of the House of Saud.
House of Saud may be better at controlling the flow of information in and out of the country. The Saudis were never as plugged into Western cyberspace as were the Russians. There have been reports of sabotage on Saudi oil infrastructure in the past.
If I may quote Napoleon "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." Another option for random Russian fires might be corrupt employees burning evidence of theft. Might also be Ukrainians. Then again it might be ordinary Russians committing arson as a political act. I don't think we have a good baseline of how many industrial/commercial fires happen per week/month in Russia.
The Russian pensioner class is used to suffering. Do you suppose if the pensioner class gets their standard of living cut 40% they will organize Molotov cocktail throwing riots?
Russia is fighting Ukraine. A NATO backed Ukraine but not actually NATO. They don't have to win now. Within a year. Or five. The plan appears to be to outlast Western support for Ukraine. At some point the Kremlin believes Westerners will stop clicking Youtube videos about Ukraine and move onto something else. And stop demanding their governments send weapons to Ukraine. How long will the welcome mat last for Ukrainian refugees in Europe?
Ukraine logistics capability nor their economy is where it was before the war. Per capita Ukraine were the poorest people in Europe. Now the economy has shrunk 30%. Now they can't export grain from Odessa. Or anything else from Odessa. How long will Western governments send cash grants to Ukraine?
The West and Ukraine may end up winning. I hope so. But it is not a slam dunk.
Sorry to nitpick, but I don't think you're quoting Napoleon there. That quote is known as Hanlon's Razor. I believe Churchill said essentially the same phrase describing Charles de Gaulle. One of my favorite authors, Robert Heinlein, wrote a very similar line in 'Logic of Empire'. Hanlon, Heinlein, House of Saud, Home of the Whopper, let's call the whole thing off.
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jeewee3000
Active Member
It is indeed not a slam dunk, but the longer this war drags on the greater the damage to the Russian economy.
Europe cannot immediately cut loose from Russian gas/oil but most Western governments are making mid-term plans of doing so as we speak. I'm most familiar with my country Belgium, whose prime minister Alexander De Croo reiterated this last week. He admits that an immediate cutoff from Russian gas imports would do the West more harm than good (and wants to silence the unrealistic opposition with this statement) but that the EU will shift gears to accelerate the search of alternative energy supply (be it non-Russian oil/gas, keeping nuclear open longer and renewables).
So if this war were to drag on for 5 years, Russian revenue of gas export will have decreased substantially. I don't think they can hold out that long.
If Russian economy collapses and the Russian citizens lives are negatively affected more and more by the invasion, it seems logical this will eventually lead to increased protests up until a point where the forces at large cannot defend the ongoing conflict.
Yes, the Russian citizen may be more patriottic an therefore able to take more pain than the "soft" westerners/americans, but any society has a breaking point I would think.
We'll see how things play out, but IMO this conflict will sizzle out by early 2023 with Russia having taken control of the eastern regions and Ukraine controlling the borders.
petit_bateau
Active Member
By end 2023 I think EU will be largely off of Russian oil, gas, and coal. Perhaps entirely so.
I don't think the West will stop supporting Ukraine prior to that, if ever. However I don't think a support solution for aviation over that duration has yet been agreed or revealed.
There are 6m refugees from Ukraine at this point. The UK under the Cons are a hostile border in almost every respect, the nasty party showing its true colours with negligible volumes permitted entry into UK.
I'm not sure what the 2-year outlook for the Russian economy looks like. In contrast I don't think it matters what the Ukraine economy does as the West will support it over that timescale, and well beyond.
I don't think the West will stop supporting Ukraine prior to that, if ever. However I don't think a support solution for aviation over that duration has yet been agreed or revealed.
There are 6m refugees from Ukraine at this point. The UK under the Cons are a hostile border in almost every respect, the nasty party showing its true colours with negligible volumes permitted entry into UK.
I'm not sure what the 2-year outlook for the Russian economy looks like. In contrast I don't think it matters what the Ukraine economy does as the West will support it over that timescale, and well beyond.
Europeans hate the idea of war on their continent ever again, the scars of WWI and WWII will not easily be forgotten. Just look at how they responded to the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the Balkan Wars. They won't suddenly get bored and forget about Ukraine, because they know that supporting Ukraine is essential to preventing further conflicts like the ones in the 20th century that left their continent in ruins and killed a huge percentage of their people.
There have been things like the oil terminal near Vladivostok, about as far from Ukraine as possible catching fire. There have been many other mysterious fires in Siberia.
I have noticed that Europe and especially western and central Europe has zero tolerance for wars on the European continent. I thought their reaction to the early 90s war in the Balkans after Yugoslavia fell apart was an unusually bold move. In the end it did a lot of good, but I started noticing then that Europe has a "never again" policy about European wars.
So they will back Ukraine until this war is over. The US is somewhat more squirrelly, but generally the US backs what its NATO allies want. Hopefully the rest of Europe and the US will help Ukraine rebuild too. A strong Ukraine will forever be a check on Russia.
History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme. Go back 125 years to 1917, Russia was losing a war then too. Russia had gone to war with insufficient preparation, just like Italy in 1940, and Russia again this year. In all three cases the armies started off on the wrong foot and never managed to get a stable war machine together.
By 1917 Russia had not done as terrible in the war as they have so far this year, though comparisons are a bit shaky. WW I was a full mobilization of a country much bigger than Russia today against multiple foes. This was intended as a limited operation that has spun into a full scale war.
By the end of 1916 Russia's forces were exhausted with the army low on food, ammunition, and other supplies. The troops were starving and refused to fight. Back home there were protests against the war starting first in Petrograd, but spreading around the country. The regime collapsed and a civil war started, eventually leading to the communists coming to power.
There are a lot of parallels. The Russian army in this war has had supply problems from the start, and they have only gotten worse. Russian troop morale was never good and it's gotten worse. There are stories of Russian soldiers refusing to fight.
Unlike WW I where both sides had serious morale problems by late 1916, the Ukrainian morale is sky high. The Ukrainians are getting better and better weapons as the war goes on while the Russians are having to scrape the bottom of the barrel for whatever they can scrounge up from their reserve stockpiles that have been sitting and rotting for 30 years. The Russian troops on the ground know something is wrong. They can't hide the disparities. The Ukrainians are getting more lethal and the Russians less so.
In WW I Russia dropped out of the war when their army revolted and then a year later Germany sued for peace when their military started a revolt. This could happen again within the next few months. Russian leadership has been depleted, the troops don't want to be there, and they are having serious problems replacing losses as well as delivering supply. That's a recipe for revolt.
I expect Ukraine will be back to their 2021 borders within a few months if not sooner.
Yes in retrospect the German political elite look...terrible.
peterpijpelink
Member
How to translate the name of the Dutch Teslawensrit.nl foundation?
When in February the war started in Ukraine, a group of people who were already working together in the foundation, looked at the news and were shocked, angry, frustrated and made up their minds. They decided to help these people. It was the same with some Dutch farmers who drove to the Polish-Ukrainian border to cook food for refugees. Sorry, let’s call these people not refugees, but people, human beings like you and me. First it was just testing the waters, don’t try to be 100% perfect, do it like you are an inventor. See what happens and fix it on the go.
So, who are these crazy Dutchmen who could not sit still and tried to help the world? The foundation was already established as a wild idea, when their Tesla cars made people on the street turn their heads. Driving an electric car was very special in 2013, but later on more Tesla cars were seen on the streets, one thing however is still a fact today, kids love a Tesla car. They are playing on the screen like it's an iPad. So, some Tesla enthusiasts established a foundation to organize road trips with children. Together with children's hospitals, they came up with the idea of wish-days, so (terminal sick) kids could make a wish. Once the wish was known, they organized the whole day. Yes, it takes time and patience to drive with sick kids, but most of all, they love it. It gave the kids a dream day and gave the Tesla drivers a day to remember.
In February 2022 these Tesla enthusiastic folks made sandwiches for their 14 hour trip. They drove to the Polish border, talked with officials, and worked with the police and government. The first drive was a success, they helped 34 Ukraine people to a safe house in the Netherlands. The guest homes were informed the same day they left Wroclaw, Poland. Since then the group became more organized, Tesla stepped in and helped by donating all charging costs for Superchargers on the way. The Polish government recognized this initiative and offers free passes on tollways. Currently they drive every week to Poland, first to Wroclaw and now to Poznan. It is very impressive to see what is happening, just a day's drive from where you live, closer than your last holiday destination. Heartbreaking what you see, terrible how people have to live. Houses destroyed and loved ones dead. We do not promise anything extraordinary, we try and sometimes the magic happens, we find a guest home for them to live. As soon as you drive away, leave the bumpy road of the city, enter the highway, children fall asleep, adults relax, they love the silence and relaxation of the electric car. Communication is difficult, but google translate helps a lot. The drivers make sure people are experiencing a smooth ride, give them food while the Tesla is being charged. We notice also that the people get charged with new energy, they feel human again, safe and start asking questions, they all love our candy we put in the trunk. (Like a walking snack buffet).
So a true green initiative, a convoy of 10-15 Tesla cars, helpful volunteers, lovely translators, it all came together like a perfect match. Driving electric, zero emission, while at the same time offer people who are fleeing their country due to the war a comfortable drive to a safe new home.
So what does Teslawensrit means? Tesla, a great electric car which gives children an opportunity to forget for a moment their situation. Playing buggy racing with a real steering-wheel, their smile is worth a fortune. We take for a short moment the child out of the war, taking the war out of a child is sadly not in the power of the volunteers. Together with the wish, the wish to be safe and sound, that is what Teslawensrit stands for. Volunteers who take days out of their work schedule, start collecting food and aid supplies and deliver those to people who need it. A girl smiling and singing through the glass roof of a Tesla is the best view. Today is a good day, tomorrow will be a better one, and eventually every day the sun will shine again, until then, the Tesla’s of teslawensrit keeps driving, helping people..
So far we helped 336 people and 15 animals!
When in February the war started in Ukraine, a group of people who were already working together in the foundation, looked at the news and were shocked, angry, frustrated and made up their minds. They decided to help these people. It was the same with some Dutch farmers who drove to the Polish-Ukrainian border to cook food for refugees. Sorry, let’s call these people not refugees, but people, human beings like you and me. First it was just testing the waters, don’t try to be 100% perfect, do it like you are an inventor. See what happens and fix it on the go.
So, who are these crazy Dutchmen who could not sit still and tried to help the world? The foundation was already established as a wild idea, when their Tesla cars made people on the street turn their heads. Driving an electric car was very special in 2013, but later on more Tesla cars were seen on the streets, one thing however is still a fact today, kids love a Tesla car. They are playing on the screen like it's an iPad. So, some Tesla enthusiasts established a foundation to organize road trips with children. Together with children's hospitals, they came up with the idea of wish-days, so (terminal sick) kids could make a wish. Once the wish was known, they organized the whole day. Yes, it takes time and patience to drive with sick kids, but most of all, they love it. It gave the kids a dream day and gave the Tesla drivers a day to remember.
In February 2022 these Tesla enthusiastic folks made sandwiches for their 14 hour trip. They drove to the Polish border, talked with officials, and worked with the police and government. The first drive was a success, they helped 34 Ukraine people to a safe house in the Netherlands. The guest homes were informed the same day they left Wroclaw, Poland. Since then the group became more organized, Tesla stepped in and helped by donating all charging costs for Superchargers on the way. The Polish government recognized this initiative and offers free passes on tollways. Currently they drive every week to Poland, first to Wroclaw and now to Poznan. It is very impressive to see what is happening, just a day's drive from where you live, closer than your last holiday destination. Heartbreaking what you see, terrible how people have to live. Houses destroyed and loved ones dead. We do not promise anything extraordinary, we try and sometimes the magic happens, we find a guest home for them to live. As soon as you drive away, leave the bumpy road of the city, enter the highway, children fall asleep, adults relax, they love the silence and relaxation of the electric car. Communication is difficult, but google translate helps a lot. The drivers make sure people are experiencing a smooth ride, give them food while the Tesla is being charged. We notice also that the people get charged with new energy, they feel human again, safe and start asking questions, they all love our candy we put in the trunk. (Like a walking snack buffet).
So a true green initiative, a convoy of 10-15 Tesla cars, helpful volunteers, lovely translators, it all came together like a perfect match. Driving electric, zero emission, while at the same time offer people who are fleeing their country due to the war a comfortable drive to a safe new home.
So what does Teslawensrit means? Tesla, a great electric car which gives children an opportunity to forget for a moment their situation. Playing buggy racing with a real steering-wheel, their smile is worth a fortune. We take for a short moment the child out of the war, taking the war out of a child is sadly not in the power of the volunteers. Together with the wish, the wish to be safe and sound, that is what Teslawensrit stands for. Volunteers who take days out of their work schedule, start collecting food and aid supplies and deliver those to people who need it. A girl smiling and singing through the glass roof of a Tesla is the best view. Today is a good day, tomorrow will be a better one, and eventually every day the sun will shine again, until then, the Tesla’s of teslawensrit keeps driving, helping people..
So far we helped 336 people and 15 animals!
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An analysis of the air war in Ukraine and why the Russians have not managed to win it even though they have a lot more aircraft
The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering
I posted another article from March a few weeks back that made some similar points, though these authors flesh them out.
The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering
I posted another article from March a few weeks back that made some similar points, though these authors flesh them out.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The German political elite are doing just about what the US political elite are doing about Yemen.
Have you ever tried getting a visa for a non UK/EU citizen to visit the EU from UK? It’s just as onerous I can tell you.
I don’t think the UK gov has done itself any favours in it’s handling of the Ukraine refugees. Having said that it’s damned if it does damned if it doesn’t do something (anything). Probably not helped by the situation with illegal immigrants leaving France in rubber dinghies even though the EU policy is once in a safe country etc etc.
I’m guessing you wouldn’t be in favour of the push back policy that was mooted at one point either.
