Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Sandor]

Kherson and Izium (see Balakliya) updates, which means Russia has very little chance of moving forces/reserves between fronts

Thread by @HeliosRunner on Thread Reader App

@HeliosRunner: 1/ Quick & dirty thread about reported (alleged) Russian losses - for People with no mil background - you might not have noticed it, but this is really heavy right now! they are fully going...…

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1567297092900503552

More on the Izium push

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567434170460160003

UKR may be on video for a daylight shootdown of RU Su25, see (and listen) for the 5sec launch point from trailing a/c : it is not a SAM imho; shows how RU definitely are on back foot in the air above the LOC. Plenty of evidence of similar greater ability to put a/c in the sky above LOC by UKR forces vs RF forces widespread. The Izium report above notes RF air caution, and the Kherson has plenty of evidence of good UKR air strikes.

In the words of the grandfather of the blitzkrieg (before Guderian even was even born), "Keep up the skeer!"

 

[iPlug]

The Kyiv Independent’s defence reporter, Illia Ponomarenko, said “something incredible” is happening in the north-east Kharkiv region.​

​

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region is reportedly seeing some success. On Tuesday, a Moscow-appointed official in the Russian-controlled Donetsk People’s Republic said Ukrainian forces had “encircled” Balakliia, an eastern town of 27,000 people situated between Kharkiv and Russian-occupied Izium.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567522785370537986

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567502462919008256

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin threatens to ‘freeze’ west by cutting oil and gas supplies if EU imposes price cap – live

 

[petit_bateau]

The Kharkiv - Izium area does seem to be opening up a bit, all sorts of snippets point to the area around Balakliya becoming fluid. I've outlined in round circles both Balakliya and the VolokhivYar road junction to the north of it on the maps I've cut/pasted when working through this stuff, and underlined Izium in a square box for reference.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567400823868489728

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567443042352627715

Invasion Day 194 – Summary (look at the first map to see where the FOC was immediately prior to this push)

and this puts those other locations they are discussing into perspective

 

[iPlug]

Feels this way:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567546089758138368

 

[wdolson]

The Kharkiv - Izium area does seem to be opening up a bit, all sorts of snippets point to the area around Balakliya becoming fluid. I've outlined in round circles both Balakliya and the VolokhivYar road junction to the north of it on the maps I've cut/pasted when working through this stuff, and underlined Izium in a square box for reference.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567400823868489728

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567443042352627715

Invasion Day 194 – Summary (look at the first map to see where the FOC was immediately prior to this push)

View attachment 849968

View attachment 849970

and this puts those other locations they are discussing into perspective

View attachment 849972

Cut that road north of Izium and it becomes almost impossible to defend Izium. This is a big win for Ukr.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Cut that road north of Izium and it becomes almost impossible to defend Izium. This is a big win for Ukr.

The M-03? It goes to Kharkiv. And to the south it goes to Slovyansk, also in Ukranian hands. I don't see it as a major supply route until you get very close to Izium. I think they're more focused on Kupyansk. If they can take it they can move down the Oskil River and cut off Izium. They can also threaten one of the supply routes to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

The Balakliya news is very encouraging. It's a real town (25-30k population) with some road, rail and river access. A definite step up from the villages they took near Kherson. That plus the reports of attacking villages on two roads to Kupyansk make it sound like the start of a legitimate small-scale offensive. Let's hope for confirmation and reports of further progress over the next few days.

 

[wdolson]

The M-03? It goes to Kharkiv. And to the south it goes to Slovyansk, also in Ukranian hands. I don't see it as a major supply route until you get very close to Izium. I think they're more focused on Kupyansk. If they can take it they can move down the Oskil River and cut off Izium. They can also threaten one of the supply routes to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

The Balakliya news is very encouraging. It's a real town (25-30k population) with some road, rail and river access. A definite step up from the villages they took near Kherson. That plus the reports of attacking villages on two roads to Kupyansk make it sound like the start of a legitimate small-scale offensive. Let's hope for confirmation and reports of further progress over the next few days.

The M-03 crosses another road that goes into Russia at Volokhiv. As I understand it the M-03 is the critical corridor to keep Izium supplied because of that crossroad. There are rail lines in there that follow these roads too that are more important for the Russians.

 

[petit_bateau]

The M-03 crosses another road that goes into Russia at Volokhiv. As I understand it the M-03 is the critical corridor to keep Izium supplied because of that crossroad. There are rail lines in there that follow these roads too that are more important for the Russians.

View attachment 850063

The railroad northwards from Izium goes up to a junction at Kupiansk. Northwards from Kupiansk the western branch goes out towards Belgorod in Russia, and the eastern branch crosses the border near Logachevka. I think it is that eastern branch that is the more important supply railroad for the Russians, though undoubtedly cutting both of them at Kupiansk would be ideal. These two north-south rail tracks are important for the Russian supply down into Izium, perhaps with offload areas in the Lozove area. If you recall back earlier in the conflict the Russians kept putting E-W pontoon bridges in to enable truck supply to stage forwards from this line. However another rail line is also important, but this time to the Ukraine. That is the rail line that runs eastwards from Kharkiv towards Kupiansk via Shevchenkove. Obtaining control over that line will ease the next phae of Ukraine's logistics, if they can achieve that.

The Kupiansk rail junction (or rail areas near it) is beginning to come into HIMARs range depending on how close to the LOC the Ukraine is prepared to push their assets. If the Ukraine can reach Shevchenkove - which the map update below from overnight indicates they are clearly thrusting towards - then that also begins to place Kupiansk within gun-range for conventional artillery (i.e. much cheaper, many more assets) and eases the Ukraine's own rail logistics.

I don't think the road network in this area is that relevant to long range logistics, though of course it is relevant to short range logistics and manoeuvre.

Invasion Day 196 – Summary

The summary of the 196th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 7th September 2022 (Kyiv time). Day summary: Ukrainian Army has launched an offensive in Kharkiv Oblast and liberated a…

militaryland.net

 

[petit_bateau]

Ukrain CINC assessment for 2023

Prospects for running a military campaign in 2023: Ukraineâs perspective

How long the war could last and how can Ukraine win it â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

with western commentary

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567684611257544704

 

[iPlug]

Impressively fast gains for Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567852874159243264

 

[Doggydogworld]

The M-03 crosses another road that goes into Russia at Volokhiv. As I understand it the M-03 is the critical corridor to keep Izium supplied because of that crossroad. There are rail lines in there that follow these roads too that are more important for the Russians.

View attachment 850063

A two-lane rural road crosses M03 at Volokhiv Yar, meanders 20 miles to Shevchenkove and then stops. No rail line follows it. I doubt it plays a major role is supplying Izium.

As @petit_bateau notes, Russia probably supplies Izium and the entire Slovyansk front by rail. Two lines from Russia meet in Kupyansk and connect to a line that runs south along the Oskil River. They can offload in Borova or Lozove. and go the final 15-20 miles on roads, or continue south and connect to a different line that runs back northwest to Izium.

I don't see a great way for Russia to supply Izium from the east, i.e. Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. The main east/west rail line dips through Siversk, which Ukraine still controls (it's the gray and white line running NW from Siversk through Dronivka). Roads between Severodonetsk and Izium are long and winding.

That means Kupyansk is key for Russia. Even if Ukraine can't capture the city outright, once close enough to shell the rail lines they can seriously disrupt Russian operations north of Slovyansk/Kramatorsk and around Izium.

On the flip side, the rail line from Kharkiv to Izium runs through Balakliya (now being encircled) and a few towns further south. Ukraine can use that to push supplies toward Izium while attacking the Russian rail lines around Kupyansk.

 

[petit_bateau]

Wowsers, the Ukraine forces seem to be only 6-7 miles from Kupiansk, with basically only open countryside to cross to reach the west side of the town. The town itself is only 2-miles big, and the river is only 50m or so wide. If they can take Kupiansk then the whole Russian situation in Izium becomes very difficult to sustain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567935220489273345

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Investigation: TotalEnergies’ Siberian oil linked to Russian military attacks on civilians in Ukraine | Global Witness

A Siberian gas field joint-owned by French oil giant TotalEnergies has been providing oil to a refinery fuelling Russian warplanes throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine

www.globalwitness.org

Take action online to #StopTotal!

We're demanding that French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire sheds light on oil giant Total's activities in Russia, seizes the profits they've made in Russia since the beginning of the war and forces them to stop all its activities in in .

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Credit goes to:

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[Skipdd]

Interesting potential development inside of Russia. While I’m not optimistic anything will come of it, the fact that it is occurring is noteworthy. Perhaps the beginnings of discontent?


Further down in the thread is a Google translation into English

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567948520748892162

 

[jabloomf1230]

Interesting potential development inside of Russia. While I’m not optimistic anything will come of it, the fact that it is occurring is noteworthy. Perhaps the beginnings of discontent?


Further down in the thread is a Google translation into English

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567948520748892162

If this is real, I hope that the Deputies of Smolninksoye municipality have a good exit strategy.

 

[wdolson]

Wowsers, the Ukraine forces seem to be only 6-7 miles from Kupiansk, with basically only open countryside to cross to reach the west side of the town. The town itself is only 2-miles big, and the river is only 50m or so wide. If they can take Kupiansk then the whole Russian situation in Izium becomes very difficult to sustain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567935220489273345

The Russians pulled so many troops out of the east they can't defend their positions. A well equipped Ukrainian force is rolling up the token resistance the Russians can put up.

The Russians basically don't have enough troops to defend the territory they grabbed.

Interesting potential development inside of Russia. While I’m not optimistic anything will come of it, the fact that it is occurring is noteworthy. Perhaps the beginnings of discontent?


Further down in the thread is a Google translation into English

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567948520748892162

We'll see if it goes anywhere. Probably not though.

 

[heltok]

Lots of videos claimed to be from the offensives are being posted now. Here are a few, not to gorey but some action:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567901702958768131

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567895048741584897

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567916730651148291

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567924161925849088

 

[madodel]

Lots of videos claimed to be from the offensives are being posted now. Here are a few, not to gorey but some action:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567901702958768131

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567895048741584897

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567916730651148291

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567924161925849088

No one seems to be firing back in any of these videos.

 

[bkp_duke]

No one seems to be firing back in any of these videos.

I heard some counterfire and saw a few muzzle flashes in 2 of them.

 

[wdolson]

Ukrainians overran the West Group HQ and captured the commander. Highest ranking Russian officer captured since WWII
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App