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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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All sorts of things happening out there. The best way to stop arrows coming is to shoot the archer. The modern equivalent is to attack the arrow factory .... and Starlink is now being enabled for Iran :

 
Lasers. This problem has been very seriously studied since 1943. Other PGMs are of great utility and are the only thing we have right now, but directionally the magazine depth issue and the exchange cost ratio issue combine with technology trends to force deployment of directed energy weapons.


For obvious reasons navies were the lead service in deploying these things in the early years, though they have since proliferated



If you put lasers a long way forwards they still need a power pack, but they also need armour. Plus a sensor suite, a comms suite, and 365 x 24 mobility in all terrain all over the world. We call that thing a tank. The RCWS you see sprouting on turrets will soon include lasers. A modern tank engine (powerpack) is over 1MW.
Hezbollah still stopped the vaunted Israeli Merkava's cold with mines, artillery, and very unsophisticated missiles (by today's standards). With no armor at all of their own. None. Israel even had complete air dominance to study things. It's why Russia is heavily mining on the approaches to the Azov, Russia is great at emplacing minefields. Anyway, a very interesting discussion. I appreciate your insight, I had not really considered MBT as a laser platform.
 
Hezbollah still stopped the vaunted Israeli Merkava's cold with mines, artillery, and very unsophisticated missiles (by today's standards). With no armor at all of their own. None. Israel even had complete air dominance to study things. It's why Russia is heavily mining on the approaches to the Azov, Russia is great at emplacing minefields. Anyway, a very interesting discussion. I appreciate your insight, I had not really considered MBT as a laser platform.
Re Lebanon: In that instance my personal opinion is that Israel had largely achieved their strategic objectives, and were greatly hampered by highly asymmetric RoE in an unfriendly ground environment, and an adverse domestic media environment. Ultimately it was a political problem, not a military weapons system problem. Just imho and prepared to listen to other views. Re Ukraine : I'd rather not comment too much on what might come next unless it is at statement of blindingly obvious level.

Seems like an anti-drone drone should already exist.......
A short range surface-to-air missile such as the one you see targetting this loitering munition in the video clip is in essence a multi-purpose drone. The problem is the exchange cost ratio and the magazine depth.

 
Scared Z-less:

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Budmo!
 
A short range surface-to-air missile such as the one you see targetting this loitering munition in the video clip is in essence a multi-purpose drone. The problem is the exchange cost ratio and the magazine depth.

The 'exchange-cost' should not be calculated on the value of the Iranian drone destroyed but on the value of the Logistics supplies that it would otherwise destroy. In this light, the anti-drone missle could be great value for its cost.
 
iplug-lots of videos and reports of equipment moving on Polish bases so maybe, nobody would be surprised as it's on twitter.
Yeah, there are reports that Poland has at least one base by the Ukrainian border that is heavily defended by Patriot missiles systems and lots of activity there has been recently reported. Unofficially, some have said its role is repair of battle worn NATO kit such as tanks, but who knows what/if else.
 
This set of maps seems fair on the situation east of Oskil and around Lyman, and not overly optimistic as the Chuck Pfarrer ones. Two of the shootdowns yesterday can be precisely georeffed to this area - there is one video where a ?? Su 30 is shot down (two ejections) and in the same clip it pans across and there is a simultaneous Ka 52 shottdown. Yesterday was a real bad day to be a Russian aviator. It does seem as if the Ukraine logistics tail has gone through a refresh cycle ready to try another surge.

 
They might hurt people with shards of glass. Need to bubble wrap that cargo.

:D

Maybe AFU could offer the conscripts real working weapons if they join the resistance.

Plastic bottles.

The tank analysis lends weight to the need to reinforce our tank supply to the UKR with M1A1s, send some of ours and get to work fixing up the mothballed fleet in the deserts (they are all fairly obsolete, no power packs, no reactive armor, 105mm vs 155, electronics need to be replaced, etc etc). But anyway, the mothball work would be done in a union factory in Ohio so why the hold up Joe? Lets fix up 1000 for them, send them 1000 and fix 1000 for the USA forces is what I mean.

OTOH I think the recent Trent rant on the implications of Iranian loitering munitions is excellent. Really good. His ranting is over the top sometimes but he's on point with this one:


hundreds of loitering drones are cheaper than 1 f35. They force the forward logistics so far back that they are not useful. That's just a start, I see real issues with the future of manned aircraft in the battlefield in the future. It offers nothing compared to a remotely piloted platform- just lots of expense in crew protection, we have to hope that someone in the DOD doesn't have head up the arse.

Most of the Abrams in storage are M1s not M1A1s. The M1 has a 105 mm gun and I believe ammunition for that gun has been out of production for quite a while. The tanks have also been sitting in storage for 20-30 years and would require major over hauls to be made operational again. They were preserved better than Russian tanks, but they still need work.

I saw Telenko's article and while pre-drone tech is not obsolete it does have a new threat. One that can be employed by enemies with shallow pockets.

All sorts of things happening out there. The best way to stop arrows coming is to shoot the archer. The modern equivalent is to attack the arrow factory .... and Starlink is now being enabled for Iran :


I have a feeling the regime in Iran might be at risk. I give it 50/50 odds. The vibe is similar to some other popular overthrows of governments, including Ukraine 2014.
 
English transaltion of analysis of Russian conscription

 
Seems that there is much going on this week. Most importantly for the next 2 months...mud season is here, reporting is that rains are limiting mobility. This is what makes the svarote push more critical and even rybar russian telegram people have commented. That is the key east west road south of russian border. It also threatens another GLOC (strabolisk spelling?), and threatens to free the entire northern border of that oblast. It also reinforces the encirclement of Lyman. So who knows...very obvious but lots of people have seen it and reported on it so there it is. Tactical, strategic, and politically helpful. The UKR just hit the command staff in Svarote and put a general out of work, they are counter attacking every day there and UKR is committing more forces.

Russian aviation took a 2 day beating and it makes one wonder is it increased sorties or increased weapons shipments getting to front lines? If they are being told to fly or else than russia could burn through quite a few airframes simply to do the job of a drone. OTOH they airframes are doing nothing sitting in Kursk. Maybe throwing anything at the Lyman pocket to stave off a retreat or encirclement. It all seems for naught, the encirclement seems a matter of days.

An encirclement there and continued push east of kupernisk (ok if I don't look at the map while typing I am lost in spelling- forgive me UKR) threatens a double envelopment, the whole northern russian defense could collapse.

Watching history unfold
 
This set of maps seems fair on the situation east of Oskil and around Lyman, and not overly optimistic as the Chuck Pfarrer ones. Two of the shootdowns yesterday can be precisely georeffed to this area - there is one video where a ?? Su 30 is shot down (two ejections) and in the same clip it pans across and there is a simultaneous Ka 52 shottdown. Yesterday was a real bad day to be a Russian aviator. It does seem as if the Ukraine logistics tail has gone through a refresh cycle ready to try another surge.

Chuck does seem to be way way ahead of the actual situation sometimes. Lots of interesting reading yesterday, basically all the experts analysis on the mobilization..if you go back 2 weeks they were all in agreement that russia would not mobilize. Goes to show...plan for contingencies.

All the mapping is in agreement on a few points though and man if UKR can pull it all off..they would be the Israeli armed forces of the 60s-70s.