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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
In the 1990s the West collectively welched on the mooted Marshall plan for Russia, largely as a result of the US right wing in Congress.
Into that yawning void in Russia stepped an army of Western lawyers and bankers. They calmly explained that it wasn't theft if the law was written in particular ways to not only permit it, but positively promote it. As exhibit A they showed the US tax code. As exhibit B they showed the UK legal set up re offshore trusts and front companies. As exhibit C they showed Swiss banking secrecy and explained that London was even better. They carried on all the way to Z and the Russians got the point, and thus a kleptocratic mafia state with vast oil and gas reserves nuclear weapons , and a blocking vote at the UN came into being.
In Russia, just as in the USA and UK and all the West only the little people steal illegally. But in the West at least there are a few fig leaves to propriety borne of centuries of experience that some restraint is best That is missing in Russia.
We in the West have only ourselves to blame for what is happening. In many ways Ukraine is suffering because of the West's collective strategic impatience and low boredom threshold.
We must do better in so many ways.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
An inevitable side-effect of mass-conscription conducted selectively in ethnic regions is that that some proportion of those newly-activated recruits will prefer to die fighting for their homeland in Moscow, rather than go to Ukraine to die as cannon fodder. Putin has opened his own tomb. At least their will be white Russians there to join the fight in the streets when the inevitable end comes.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
I'm wondering what the critical mass of protestors needs to be. When the Ukrainians kicked out Yanukovych they were able to over-power the riot police. I don't understand why a group of 10,000 Russian protestors are allowing 100 cops to pick them off one by one.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Because it's not how their mindset works. Per my Russian neighbor, most Russians just want to go on with their lives and not be bothered. It will take a SUBSTANTIAL personal impact to motivate them to go to the streets and risk their lives. Perhaps a "partial mobilization" will do that. But I have my doubts.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
What 'protesters'? Even, what 'rioters'. I'm calling for armed rebellion. Remember during the Yeltsin years when he shelled the Russian White House? Dissoved Parliament and arrested legislators? Created his own constitiion? Now, add some WP to the mix, and some 'out-of-towners':
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follow the money and you will find corruption. USA has plenty of it including this huge COVID fraud case this week:
US: 48 exploited pandemic to steal $250M from food program
Federal authorities have charged 48 people in what they're calling the largest pandemic-related fraud scheme yet uncovered. The defendants allegedly stole $250 million from a federal program that provides mealswww.wfmz.com
Every country has some corruption. Somebody is always going to dip their hand in the cookie jar. In some countries it's hard to get away with much. In some countries there are some legal avenues set up by law as @petit_bateau outlined above. But some countries are blatant in their theft of resources and Russia is probably the largest country to have such widespread theft going on.
In the new Russia they have been good at evading it for 30 years.
The losses among the LDR and DPR must be staggering. Those two places had over 3 million people pre-war and most of the men between 18 and 60 are gone now.
Putin has encouraged this. People who are politically checked out are easier to control.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
That is old school. New school is to brainwash them with conspiracy theories until they are violent zombies
When Elon Challenged Putin to a fight to leave Ukraine awhile ago; I think Elon is a black belt in Jujitsu.
I wonder how Tom Hardy, who just won in Brazilian Jujitsu, would do vs Elon. Actually I wouldn't want Elon to do it since injuries do happen. My wrist is finally feeling much better but I am too old for this but enjoyed it decades ago when I could throw a man twice my size. I love this sport and find it fascinating that these guys are doing it. Why can't guys like Putin fight a war in person? Might be
I wonder how Tom Hardy, who just won in Brazilian Jujitsu, would do vs Elon. Actually I wouldn't want Elon to do it since injuries do happen. My wrist is finally feeling much better but I am too old for this but enjoyed it decades ago when I could throw a man twice my size. I love this sport and find it fascinating that these guys are doing it. Why can't guys like Putin fight a war in person? Might be
Depends on your motive. If you want to over through the existing system, you want violent mobs. That was the Nazi playbook in the 1920s. If you want to keep the existing system intact, you want the population tuned out and indifferent.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Re: White Russians evading conscription, this seems to be a thing:
Putin ally's son refused to fight in Ukraine, prank callers say
Nikolay Peskov, 32, the son of Putin ally Dmitry Peskov, may have fallen victim to a prank call by a Russian YouTube channel, according to reports.
The hosts of Popular Politics allegedly called Nikolay Peskov live on air and pretended to be a military commissar, according to a report in the Ukrainian online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda...
Nikolay Peskov is asked to sign up as a volunteer to fight in Ukraine and report to the military commissariat at 10 a.m. the next day.
While appearing to be apprehensive of the call-up's validity, Peskov replied that he would not be turning up, according to Ukrainska Pravda's account.
"Of course I won't go there at 10 a.m. tomorrow. If you know that I am Mr Peskov, you should realise how entirely wrong it would be for me to be there," he was quoted as saying.
"I will resolve this at a different level. I need to understand in general what is happening and what rights I have."
"To be taken away tomorrow, believe me, neither you nor I need that," he continued.
"I have no problem defending my homeland, but I need to understand whether it's feasible for me to be there. I'm talking about certain political nuances."...
Putin ally's son refused to fight in Ukraine, prank callers say
Been thinking about this. Even with the primitive health care the Russians have the seriously wounded probably number about 2x the dead. In western armies the ratio of wounded to dead is much higher because we have gotten vastly better at saving the wounded.
So among Russians the losses are somewhere around 80K dead and 160K disabled and not returning.
From here
UAWarData
I counted the equivalent of 15 BTGs on the border in Russia, 83 outside of Kherson, and 36 in Kherson for a total of 134 BTGs left. Assuming 400 men per BTG left (which at this point is probably high, it may be as low as 200) that means the Russians have around 53K troops left in country.
This map doesn't include DPR and LDR troops. Other maps I've seen show these units. There are a lot of them. The Russians probably have more than 100K troops from the Donbas, most untrained and unmotivated. Throwing more untrained unmotivated people at the problem is probably going to do little good.
I wouldn't be surprised if the LDR and DPR losses are in the range of 100K.
This fits with the anecdotal reports that Russian medics and medical staff are now getting mobilization orders despite not being in the reserves.
I was deployed to the Afghanistan theater during our war as physician to a surgical intensive care unit. Our casualty numbers would have been 5-10x higher were it not for medics immediately stabilizing soldiers on site, putting them immediately on a chopper then to one of our forward operating bases and/or to our in-theater main hospital, often just 30 minute after the massive casualty event. Patients there got life saving surgery and by the next day were on a plane to Ramstein AFB.
Of course the system in the US that saves lives today has been evolving for 80 years. It's much more involved than just having the personnel there. The Russians seem to think they can get the survival rates the US does with more people on the job. They don't have the infrastructure the US has and there is zero chance they can put it together.
More personnel will save some lives but won't approach American levels of survivability.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Recruiting disaffected Russian federation minorities and Russians into their own or integrated units might be a good idea. Ensure good training, feeling of camaraderie, logistics support, sense of PURPOSE. Might be the start of a post-Putin army and regime (multiple, for each ethnicity/republic in the federation). Isn't "using your enemies strength against him" a bit of a judo move..... Putin must have missed that one.
Propaganda over Ukrainians treating prisoners badly should be countered. Offers of better food, medical aid and rewards for equipment being surrendered could work with the low-morale conscripts Putin wants to flood in.
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The problem is getting the word out. The pour on the propaganda about how the Ukrainians will mistreat them if captured to such a degree the Russians sometimes shoot their wounded to prevent their capture. If the Russians all knew the truth about how they would be treated if captured, the entire Russian army would surrender en masse tomorrow.
The last time the Russians were in a fight with a European power their prisoners were very badly treated and that's probably taught in schools. Now they are getting the memes updated by current propaganda.
People may behave irrationally based on what we know, but they are behaving rationally in the information universe they inhabit. Educating them is usually very difficult because the people telling them this garbage are also telling them not to trust other sources. It doesn't matter if they trust the primary propaganda source or not. Not trusting any source is a satisfactory outcome.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Probably best to come from other prisoners or those who have enlisted in Ukrainian forces. Needs to be relatives, friends and sustained messaging. Either via phone calls or social media and directly to Russian Federation troops or via their relatives in the various Federation republics. Relatives might have more opportunity to investigate than troops.
Might even involve artillery-dropped leaflets with websites, telegram channels listed - to find out more. Otherwise, information warfare in many ways including hi-jacking Russian TV/radio channels, drop strong directional TV/radio transmitters near towns like Belgorod? Also engage with Russian diaspora. those going through borders, I'm sure there are ways that could be improved.
How can the casual observer be sure of any facts when we have examples like this:
It takes a lot of time and determination to find out facts about anything these days because of the huge volume of misinformation in the public domain. On the whole, from what I've seen, most Russians don't seem to want to find out if what they're fed via TV and propoganda is truth or fiction. The easy way is to simply accept it and carry on. They may not trust it fully, but they accept it in return for an easy life.
ALL Russians need to be made to feel very uncomfortable about what's happening and fear for their own lives and livelihoods. Only then *might* there be an uprising of sorts.
It takes a lot of time and determination to find out facts about anything these days because of the huge volume of misinformation in the public domain. On the whole, from what I've seen, most Russians don't seem to want to find out if what they're fed via TV and propoganda is truth or fiction. The easy way is to simply accept it and carry on. They may not trust it fully, but they accept it in return for an easy life.
ALL Russians need to be made to feel very uncomfortable about what's happening and fear for their own lives and livelihoods. Only then *might* there be an uprising of sorts.
