Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Singuy]

If Russia thought they had a very good chance of winning the War by nuking Kyiv they would have already done so.

Retired US Gen and former Director of the CIA David Petraeus says if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine then US/NATO will sink the Russian Black Sea Fleet and neutralize all Russian assets inside Ukraine. I tend to believe him.

Yeah but that scenario stops after your period. What comes next is probably bad for earth.

 

[nwdiver]

And then WW3, ICBMs towards most major american cities and game over

That will be up to Ruzzia. How far should we let the blackmail go? Here's Crimea.. please don't destroy the world. Here's Poland please don't destroy the world. Lithuania? Georgia?

Hopefully Ruzzia enjoys pretending they have a 'Navy' and 'Army' and realize the fantasy is over if they use a nuke.

 

[Singuy]

Most major wars are won by factories churning out war materials.

Currently more and more factories and stockpiles of weapons are being made available to Ukraine from many other countries, as well as their own.

Russian factories are being choked to death by sanctions on the items they need to produce additional weapons to replace those lost in the war.

Inevidible that Russia will loose to attrition or resort to using Nukes. If they use Nukes many more nations will turn actively to support Ukraine and neutralize Russia.

Sounds fine until the nukes part

I think a better outcome is negotiate, Russia is still sanctioned. Their economy will eventually collapse. Ukraine build back stronger with a more competent military. Russia falls more and more behind without chips to resupply. They already have a massive brain drain. Eventually Putin steps down as a hero and maybe a decade or two down where Russians feel like they live in North Korea, some pro west ideas come alone and maybe bring in some wealth again.

 

[RobStark]

And then WW3, ICBMs towards most major american cities and game over

IF Russia wants everywhere from Moscow to Vladivostok to glow nuclear Orange.

IF the West Caves to Russian Nuclear threats then just shut down every parliament in the West and take orders from the Kremlin. Hello Russia World.

 

[Singuy]

IF Russia wants everywhere from Moscow to Vladivostok to glow nuclear Orange.

IF the West Caves to Russian Nuclear threats then just shut down every parliament in the West and take orders from the Kremlin. Hello Russia World.

The West already caved because every leader repeat and repeat again that they will not actively attack any Russian troops on the ground or in the air. They can rape babies and put in on tik tok but the West will not actively go rescue them. This is the power Russia already hold, therefore they do atrocious things on the ground.

So now it's not a matter of looking to see who can play chicken best, but to look for exit ramps. Russia's military capabilities and economic prowess have been severely damaged. They know it, we know it, and Putin knows it. And we know Putin will not concede...so what to do....

 

[heltok]

IF Russia wants everywhere from Moscow to Vladivostok to glow nuclear Orange.

IF the West Caves to Russian Nuclear threats then just shut down every parliament in the West and take orders from the Kremlin. Hello Russia World.

Assume you play game of chicken with Putin. Two cars heading towards each other, the one who swerves loses. Putin throws out the steering wheel and cuts the breaks, put on headphones and a mask. What do you do? Copy him? No you swerve.

If we do nuclear WW3 we all die...

So if Putin start the process of it, should we just play along and die or do we surrender? Let's be honest, we are not as irrational as Putin and would lose the game of chicken. Sucks to admit it, but that's the truth.

West would give Ukraine to Russia, let Russia do whatever they want until they touch NATO. That is the line hill we decided to die on, and that's likely what we would do...

 

[UkNorthampton]

IF Russia wants everywhere from Moscow to Vladivostok to glow nuclear Orange.

IF the West Caves to Russian Nuclear threats then just shut down every parliament in the West and take orders from the Kremlin. Hello Russia World.

It's Putin, the chain of command to the nukes and the people firing the nukes.

Putin only cares for himself. The rest are the ones who may save us, maybe an assassination.

That and the corruption/lack of maintenance etc.

 

[nwdiver]

...so what to do....

Continue equipping Ukraine so they can remove every Russian occupier from land that was Ukraine in 2013. No Putin concessions needed.

 

[RobStark]

The West already caved because every leader repeat and repeat again that they will not actively attack any Russian troops on the ground or in the air. They can rape babies and put in on tik tok but the West will not actively go rescue them. This is the power Russia already hold, therefore they do atrocious things on the ground.

So now it's not a matter of looking to see who can play chicken best, but to look for exit ramps. Russia's military capabilities and economic prowess have been severely damaged. They know it, we know it, and Putin knows it. And we know Putin will not concede...so what to do....

No we haven't.

That is why they haven't already nuked Kyiv and Lviv.

 

[RobStark]

Assume you play game of chicken with Putin. Two cars heading towards each other, the one who swerves loses. Putin throws out the steering wheel and cuts the breaks, put on headphones and a mask. What do you do? Copy him? No you swerve.

If we do nuclear WW3 we all die...

So if Putin start the process of it, should we just play along and die or do we surrender? Let's be honest, we are not as irrational as Putin and would lose the game of chicken. Sucks to admit it, but that's the truth.

West would give Ukraine to Russia, let Russia do whatever they want until they touch NATO. That is the line hill we decided to die on, and that's likely what we would do...

You blow up his car with conventional weapons.

Don't use nukes first. But use nukes last.

 

[heltok]

You blow up his car with conventional weapons.

Don't use nukes first. But use nukes last.

It’s a hypothetical argument, don’t go all deus ex machina on it…

 

[DeepFrz]

Sounds fine until the nukes part

I think a better outcome is negotiate, Russia is still sanctioned. Their economy will eventually collapse. Ukraine build back stronger with a more competent military. Russia falls more and more behind without chips to resupply. They already have a massive brain drain. Eventually Putin steps down as a hero and maybe a decade or two down where Russians feel like they live in North Korea, some pro west ideas come alone and maybe bring in some wealth again.

Negotiate with the mafia? Russia isn't a "Communist" state or a "Fascist" state, it is a mafia state. From our own observations Putin can't be trusted to keep his word on anything. He and the mafia state must be "neutralized" as the Ukrainians like to say.

 

[azred]

I know Musk has been cozying up to the Trumpists so I guess it shouldn’t be too shocking that he is lobbying on behalf of Trump’s good friend Putin.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Russia's already been neutralized. The global corporations that left ain't coming back in time to save their economy before oil collapses for good.

I've had decent visibility into who does business in Russia in a previous corporate life, and just a handful of names that've left is catastrophic.

IMO it's perfectly logical to start talking about a negotiated exit while Ukraine has momentum and a clear path to a very painful "total victory".

Talk is good. See if Putin pops his head up at any point while folks are throwing around ideas.

 

[Bad Horse]

I know Musk has been cozying up to the Trumpists so I guess it shouldn’t be too shocking that he is lobbying on behalf of Trump’s good friend Putin.

More reason to just hate him. it's depressing how far he's fallen in my eyes from a decade ago

 

[Singuy]

Negotiate with the mafia? Russia isn't a "Communist" state or a "Fascist" state, it is a mafia state. From our own observations Putin can't be trusted to keep his word on anything. He and the mafia state must be "neutralized" as the Ukrainians like to say.

Welp, you ain't touching Putin without eating a few nukes. Good luck with neutralizing him...

 

[Singuy]

More reason to just hate him. it's depressing how far he's fallen in my eyes from a decade ago

You hate people who doesn't agree with your political stance?

 

[BitJam]

Nah, Elon's opinion is from the Peter Thiel/David Sachs/foxNews/Tucker Carlson/Donald Trump crowd.

To be fair, Noam Chomsky also has this view. He thinks a compromise that cedes land to Russia in order to stop the fighting ASAP is the way to go. I'm not agreeing, just reporting.

 

[spacerfc]

I haven't been following this war closely, just to clarify: has any western leader stated clearly that they'll support a total Ukraine victory no matter what?

If I'm not mistaken only UK seems to be leaning towards this, even Biden is ambiguous wrt the level support US is willing to provide, France/Germany are pretty weak in their support so can't count on them much. If no western political leader is behind the total victory option, you can't really blame Elon Musk for proposing a compromise, even though you may disagree with it. Without full and unconditional support from the west, there's no way for Ukraine to win a total victory.

 

[iPlug]

Knowing what he knows now, anyone think Putin would go again with the Feb 2022 invasion if he got a redo time machine?