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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Russia is going to have to move their weapons depots and C&C deeper into occupied territory. They are kidding if they think they are going to sit a few miles on the Eastern side of the river and shell into Kherson daily. They will get pummel that way.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Watched that one previously.
I would say "it fits". The key is "what don't we know?" that would change the calculus there.
Kirill Stremousov: Senior Russian Kherson official dies in car crash, officials say
Kirill Stremousov was appointed two months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.www.bbc.com
Maybe he "fell" out of a car window.
Will probably take at least a few days for Russia to retreat their estimated thousands of troops in Kherson if they attempt to do so in an organized way. In the meantime UKR army is pushing in and liberated Borozenske.
The Russians will probably be leaving behind a huge amount of hardware, which they couldn’t evacuate after the bridges were damaged by the Ukrainians. The ferries replacing the bridges lacked the capacity to get many vehicles out. I wonder if this time they will blow them up, sabotage them or place boobytraps. Or will there be massive military aid to Ukraine again. The Russians probably have just a few days before their positions get overrun, so I’m not expecting an orderly retreat.
I wonder if Russia wouldn't have found it cheaper (in both monetary and other ways) to spin up a green energy industry (both building panels/windmills/etc and deploying them) and then selling electricity to EU instead of gas, versus all the losses (material, human, economic, and political) they've taken with the invasion of Ukraine?
I'm not sure how many of what sorts of metals/minerals/etc that are needed for such industry they have on tap, but I know that they produce some amount of copper, aluminum, etc, so they might not have to import much from outside their borders.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
This assumes a position of adding value versus taking it.
It also assumes competence and vision to devise and execute such a plan.
I see neither in place. The internal development of Russia's oil and gas was undertaken mostly by outside entities. The core competence does not exist within Russia to re-invent themselves. History would seem to indicate the country does not have an interest in re-inventing itself.
BTW, very good idea and I really wish it were so......
Where does Putin get his cut of the profits from something like that? That's all that he cares about. What he can steal.
The general says that this will free up troops for offensive operations elsewhere. That will likely get a lot of Russians killed. They are not in the position in any way to conduct offensive operations right now. The limited offensive they have been trying in Donesk has been costing them dearly.
Europe, especially Germany is full of unexploded bombs from WW II. They are found so frequently most don't make the news beyond locally.
Germany uncovers about 15 a day
Unexploded ordnance - Wikipedia
SE Asia has a lot of unexploded ordinance too.
Worth reading - the air war is a delicate state of balance, by no means 'won'
The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
Further Western support is needed to ensure that Kyiv can counter Moscow's updated approach to the air war in Ukraine.rusi.org
F-16s are probably the western fighter to give them. There are plenty in storage.
The video is 5 months old. A lot of their natural gas to Europe is not flowing now, but it's fairly accurate.
Russia as it is today is not a place for innovation. During the Soviet era the government encouraged military innovation to some extent by having competing design bureaus. Putin merged those bureaus into one company to be more efficient. There is a big disincentive to be innovative. Anybody who builds a successful business and is not in Putin's inner circle gets their company taken from them by an oligarch. The companies run by the oligarchs have no interest in innovating anything new, they are too focused on stripping everything they can from what the company makes. R&D is an expense they don't want to make.
A brief analysis of Russia's economy:
It's primarily an extraction economy with a few refined products, the first steps of production like pig iron. Finished goods like cars is a tiny 0.4% slice.
The Russian economy is pretty sad, “Third World” with nuclear weapons, and not a new development for them.
2020 exports:
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus#yearly-trade
2020 exports:
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus#yearly-trade
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, that road from Kherson to Crimea was in easy HIMARS range. Just sayin'...
What I do find an interesting coincidence is that, although Russia has been preparing to bug out from the right bank of the Dnipro for weeks, they announce the decision in a staged (fake) general staff meeting hours after Russia didn't get their preferred outcome in the mid-terms.
Jus' sayin'. /s
Car bombs seem to be one of the preferred assassination techniques of Ukrainian partisans.
I thought it was a response to the Iranians getting examples of western ordinance. Looking at it again I see there was a reference to "the bomb" as opposed to a more generic bomb description.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Gas by wire projects were mooted, but gas by pipe was preferred. Amongst other things it put the least amount of industrial value at risk in post-Soviet Russia.
Renewables by wire projects fail most of the tests.
Russia has a good future if joins in and follows the European economic models of countries like Finland, Romania, plus their mineral resources. Unfortunately I do not expect that to happen, it has not been their path since the late 90s at least.
This was also the preferred assassination techniques of Afghan (*) & Iraqi partisans against the occupation forces
(*) Afghani is the currency
According to this thread, the rail link between Donbas and southern Ukraine was broken by the Ukrainians and the Russians have not repaired it. So the Russians have no working rail link supporting southern Ukraine. They are ferrying semis across to Crimea and then transferring the cargo to rail in Crimea. They can't move much fuel that way. Their forces are starving literally and figuratively.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
For the true logistics geeks, this is just the start of a project, but Hanry Schottman is doing a deep dive into Russian unit supply requirements.
Thread by @HN_Schlottman on Thread Reader App
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
For the true logistics geeks, this is just the start of a project, but Hanry Schottman is doing a deep dive into Russian unit supply requirements.
Thread by @HN_Schlottman on Thread Reader App
We discussed this lack or rail to the Donbass quite a bit during the Kerch bridge attack. It is the reason the logistics situation has gone to heck as winter approaches. They will even have a hard time holding the Sea of Azov ports. That combined with the
X Fan
Active Member
Kherson thoughts: 13-16k soldiers around Kherson proper with no orders to retreat yet:
threadreaderapp.com
Thread by @LanguageIearner on Thread Reader App
@LanguageIearner: A thread on RU withdrawal and UA offensives in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, UA OPCOM South, + others. As of 10 PM on 11/9/22. East of the Inhulets river, UA is advancing towards Berys...…
threadreaderapp.com
