Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Doggydogworld]

How do you think those memories stack up to their current reality?...

I think they blame the west for any current economic hardship. And their economy is still stronger than it was in the mid-90s, plus they have political stability now instead of chaos. Only a small fraction have the ability/desire to use VPNs, the rest are fed a steady diet of propaganda -- Ukranians slaughtering ethnic Russians, their own soldiers heroically "liberating" and feeding starving children, etc.

Every country has ex-pats who sell stories the west wants to hear. Think of all the ex-pats who told George W Bush and his neocon advisors that US soldiers would be welcomed with flowers and hallelujahs as they freed the oppressed Iraqis from Saddam Hussein. How'd that one work out?

 

[SageBrush]

Think of all the ex-pats who told George W Bush and his neocon advisors that US soldiers would be welcomed with flowers and hallelujahs as they freed the oppressed Iraqis from Saddam Hussein. How'd that one work out?

That was the propaganda the NeoCons fed the internet, along with the WMD BS.
Li'l Bush and Cheney knew full well that that it was an oil war.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] Every country has ex-pats who sell stories the west wants to hear. Think of all the ex-pats who told George W Bush and his neocon advisors that US soldiers would be welcomed with flowers and hallelujahs as they freed the oppressed Iraqis from Saddam Hussein. How'd that one work out?

I'm not an expert on the neocon invasion of Iraq. But it seems rather clear to me that they made many, many very big mistakes. Perhaps there was a way it could have been done instead where Iraq today would have a Freedom House score of ~85/100 instead of 29/100. We will never know. But however that could possibly have been done, there would probably have to be a separate Kurdistan.

But yeah... Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 and they didn't have any WMDs, so I really don't understand the rationale behind it... And I'm guessing that also goes for all you in the US that lost relatives in that war. Or all those who got wounded – physically and/or mentally.

Iraq: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House

See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Iraq.

freedomhouse.org

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

It would probably take fifty years of education and open source news to have a chance at a viable democracy in Russia. It worked quickly in Japan and Germany because they were occupied countries and the Allies had the will to make it happen. There's no way the West is going to occupy Russia, and there are far too many pro-Putin politicians.

So what was the fall of the Soviet Union about in 1989?...

There must have been a path from the fall fo the Soviet Union that would have led to a better outcome than we have today. I however do not know how close to any kind of viable-Democracy-path Russia got, or exactly what they and the collective democratic west should have done differently to ensure such a path. I unfortunately don't know enough about economics or Russian history to say.

But regardless: It seems to me that there is a real risk when a lot of folks subscribe to various dystopian scenarios... If enough influential people dismiss every chance of a better world then that in itself can be a real problem – as in a self-fulfilling prophecy...

Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jerry33]

So what was the fall of the Soviet Union about in 1989?...

There must have been a path from the fall fo the Soviet Union that would have led to a better outcome than we have today. I however do not know how close to any kind of viable-Democracy-path Russia got, or exactly what they and the collective democratic west should have done differently to ensure such a path. I unfortunately don't know enough about economics or Russian history to say.

But regardless: It seems to me that there is a real risk when a lot of folks subscribe to various dystopian scenarios... If enough influential people dismiss every chance of a better world then that in itself can be a real problem – as in a self-fulfilling prophecy...

Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There was a rebuild Russia proposal, but it never received any funding or support from Congress, so the opportunity was wasted.

 

[petit_bateau]

@wdolson : The rule of thumb is a power doing an occupation needs 50 troops per 1000 population to prevent an insurgency.

So why didn't Crimean insurgency throw out the hated Russians?

Being blunt, the rule of thumb depends greatly on the amount of brutality and tenacity in play by the various factions in the conflict. If a modern nicy nicy country is the liberator then 0.1% of well-funded anti's are sufficient to ultimately cause the nicy nicy country to throw its hands in the air. If on the other hand an empire employs a firmer and more persistent hand then the insurgency fizzles.

In Crimea the hand employed by Russia was very firm, brutal even.

 

[BitJam]

There was a rebuild Russia proposal, but it never received any funding or support from Congress, so the opportunity was wasted.

The West intervened heavily in Russia after the fall of the USSR. It was a neo-liberal sandbox/playground. The policies imposed by the West created the Russian kleptocracy we now abhor. Many in the West try to forget or cover up this part of history, perhaps so they can try to repeat the same mistakes in the future.

The Neoliberal Origins of Russia’s War • The Progressive Economy Forum

The evil being perpetrated by Russia will not be defeated by military means alone. A transformation of our own societies must be achieved.

progressiveeconomyforum.com

It was clear that the neo-liberal strategy was simply creating a kleptocratic capitalism, a virulent form of rentier capitalism that was taking shape globally.​

​

Yes, it was an opportunity squandered not due to lack of intervention and "help" but due to too much intervention by neo-liberal ideologues. Russia today is the result of the "greed is good" mantra taken to extremes. These failures of Western intervention laid part of the foundation for the current war in Ukraine.

 

[madodel]

The West intervened heavily in Russia after the fall of the USSR. It was a neo-liberal sandbox/playground. The policies imposed by the West created the Russian kleptocracy we now abhor. Many in the West try to forget or cover up this part of history, perhaps so they can try to repeat the same mistakes in the future.

The Neoliberal Origins of Russia’s War • The Progressive Economy Forum

The evil being perpetrated by Russia will not be defeated by military means alone. A transformation of our own societies must be achieved.

progressiveeconomyforum.com

It was clear that the neo-liberal strategy was simply creating a kleptocratic capitalism, a virulent form of rentier capitalism that was taking shape globally.​

​

Yes, it was an opportunity squandered not due to lack of intervention and "help" but due to too much intervention by neo-liberal ideologues. Russia today is the result of the "greed is good" mantra taken to extremes. These failures of Western intervention laid part of the foundation for the current war in Ukraine.

To clarify this "neo-liberal" philosophy has nothing to do with liberal or left wing politics. "neo-liberal" is an economic ideology of laissez faire free market beliefs where there is little to no regulation, along with that minimal government and like you say based on market greed. From your comments I assume you know this but some here may not.

 

[SageBrush]

To clarify this "neo-liberal" philosophy has nothing to do with liberal or left wing politics. "neo-liberal" is an economic ideology of laissez faire free market beliefs where there is little to no regulation, along with that minimal government and like you say based on market greed. From your comments I assume you know this but some here may not.

IIRC, the fruits of the mostly discredited Chicago School of Economics. The ideas still enthrall Libertarians that were captivated as children by the Russian emigre Ayn Rand. No one should be surprised if Elon Musk is in this group.

Irony, Eh ?

 

[jabloomf1230]

?

I have him blocked just fine

Putin's best comrade is blocked unless he takes advantage of a forum bug and also quotes his own post in a reply.

 

[UrsS]

Looks like there is a coordinated effort by trolls/bots/Putin's minions (?) to derail this TMC thread. Let's hope they have the same success - or even less - than their army in Ukraine.
Don't feed the trolls - don't feed Putin!

 

[SageBrush]

Putin's best comrade is blocked unless he takes advantage of a forum bug and also quotes his own post in a reply.

Interesting bot test. Tell them how to circumvent blocking and see if they learn

 

[jabloomf1230]

Interesting bot test. Tell them how to circumvent blocking and see if they learn

They already know and have been taking advantage of the bug for a month now.

 

[BMW740iL]

I'm not an expert on the neocon invasion of Iraq. But it seems rather clear to me that they made many, many very big mistakes. Perhaps there was a way it could have been done instead where Iraq today would have a Freedom House score of ~85/100 instead of 29/100. We will never know. But however that could possibly have been done, there would probably have to be a separate Kurdistan.

But yeah... Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 and they didn't have any WMDs, so I really don't understand the rationale behind it... And I'm guessing that also goes for all you in the US that lost relatives in that war. Or all those who got wounded – physically and/or mentally.

Iraq: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House

See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Iraq.

freedomhouse.org

 

[wdolson]

1. Look at the videos of modern MANPAD hits on aircraft in Ukraine, by both sides. Count the time from release to impact. These things are fast ! There is no post-launch evasive tactics discernable, even if the aircraft targets are aware of the launch. A lot of the hits are terminal for the aircraft being targetted.

2. The only tactic that is viable is to be out of the line of sight (LOS) of the MANPAD. But if the forward lines include MANPAD detachments, or are overlooked by MANPAD detachments then that only leaves stand-off weapons as a viable ongoing tactic. If you look at the videos you will see both sides are doing lofted release trajectories of unguided rockets, which are the only stand-off weapons they have that can be delivered in any quantity at low level. The delivery aircraft are pulling up from about 50-feet, and are reaching max 100-150-feet for less than a second and back down and away, ordinarily helicopters but also Su25 Frogfoots.

3. There is very little footage of either helicopters or Frogfoots using cannon succesfully in air-to-ground situations as a common and survivable tactic. That is because the cannon is a LOS weapon that takes the aircraft very predictably into MANPADS threats. (Caveat : we've seen very little night-time video, and there is definitely helo-flying going on by Ukraine at least using NVG systems).

4. Going high to release air-to-ground standoff weapons seems inadvisable in Bukh and S300/S400 MEZs. That rules out a lot of the weapons that NATO has in its air-to-ground inventory.

If F16 or similar were to be supplied, along with the relevant weaponry, and then Ukraine were to be able to use them effectively to destroy/suppress air defences in even just localised areas, then the equation would very much change. Or perhaps much more NVG use.

If Ukraine can neutralize air defense systems than other aircraft can operate above MABPAD altitudes.

"Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise​

Victory for Ukraine, Democracy for Russia​

By Garry Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky​

January 20, 2023

The regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin is living on borrowed time. The tide of history is turning, and everything from Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield to the West’s enduring unity and resolve in the face of Putin’s aggression points to 2023 being a decisive year. If the West holds firm, Putin’s regime will likely collapse in the near future. [..."

Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise

Victory for Ukraine, democracy for Russia.

www.foreignaffairs.com

I'm skeptical democracy is going to break out if Putin goes. If Russia breaks up some of the breakaway republics may move towards democracy with the right encouragement.

Somebody like Pregozhin will make a play for the presidency though and he's probably worse than Putin.

2. If the Russian Dictator falls there seems to be quite the chance for a rather considerable power struggle. Hopefully that will cause massive dissent inside of Russia. And out of such a massive dissent real Democracy could hopefully stand a chance.

Regardless: I can't wait for the day when the Russian Dictator looses power.

If democracy comes to any part of the former Russian empire, it will not happen immediately.

LOL. You were already quoting Mark Hertling on Twitter the first day of the war.

I guess you're right.

So what was the fall of the Soviet Union about in 1989?...

There must have been a path from the fall fo the Soviet Union that would have led to a better outcome than we have today. I however do not know how close to any kind of viable-Democracy-path Russia got, or exactly what they and the collective democratic west should have done differently to ensure such a path. I unfortunately don't know enough about economics or Russian history to say.

But regardless: It seems to me that there is a real risk when a lot of folks subscribe to various dystopian scenarios... If enough influential people dismiss every chance of a better world then that in itself can be a real problem – as in a self-fulfilling prophecy...

Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Russians tried democracy in the 90s and in their view it failed. To most Russians democracy is a weak form of government and they aren't going to go for it any time soon. The 90s were really rough in Russia.

George HW Bush proposed a Marshall like Plan to help out Russia, but Congress wouldn't fund it. American corporations had a lot of influence in Russia, but they weren't there to build a stable government, they were there to make a buck manipulating the former state owned businesses that were now privatized. It was a bad influence from the west.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I didn't realize how impressive the Swedish Archer mobile 155mm howitzer weapon system was until reading this article today. It can fire a volley of three shells that impact on the same target at the same time within 15 seconds and be on the move within another 15 seconds before the shells impact their target. Very impressive.

Ukraineâs New Swedish Howitzer Can Hit The Russians With Three Shells At A TimeâAnd Drive Away Before The Salvo Lands

The Archer self-propelled howitzers that Sweden just pledged to Ukraine ... are special. They might even turn out to be the best big guns in Ukraineâs diverse inventory.

www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[madodel]

I didn't realize how impressive the Swedish Archer mobile 155mm howitzer weapon system was until reading this article today. It can fire a volley of three shells that impact on the same target at the same time within 15 seconds and be on the move within another 15 seconds before the shells impact their target. Very impressive.

Ukraineâs New Swedish Howitzer Can Hit The Russians With Three Shells At A TimeâAnd Drive Away Before The Salvo Lands

The Archer self-propelled howitzers that Sweden just pledged to Ukraine ... are special. They might even turn out to be the best big guns in Ukraineâs diverse inventory.

www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Though I'm sure the Russians can intercept them midair and send them back in less than 15 seconds. LoL.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So what was the fall of the Soviet Union about in 1989?...

Uh, I think you're mixing up your events. Perhaps you're thinking of the fall of the Berlin Wall on Nov 9, 1989? German reunification was complete by Mar 15, 1991.

It's no coincidence that Mikhail Gorbachev was kidnapped at his dacha on the Black Sea in Aug 1991 (I was a gun position Officer on an Artillery live fire excercise that week, and I remember listening to the news events on shortwave radio).

Gorbie's subsequent hostage rescue, ordered by notorious vodka-sponge Boris Yeltsin, soon redirected the crisis to Moscow, resulting in the fire at the Russian Duma, and ultimately a revised Russian constitution which granted sweeping authoritarian powers to the President.

V.I. Putin a Yeltsin deputy at the time. As next in line, Putie took power on Dec 31, 1999.

So, ten years for the curent political landscape to take shape in Eastern Europe from 1989?

 

[X Fan]

 

[bhzmark]

There was a rebuild Russia proposal, but it never received any funding or support from Congress, so the opportunity was wasted.

George HW Bush proposed a Marshall like Plan to help out Russia, but Congress wouldn't fund it.

not true as I explained at length in October.

Support for EAstern European Democracies act of 1989 (after Poland and Hungary opened their borders) and the related Freedom Support Act of 1992 after the rest of the Communist Bloc had turned, was passed and fully funded and committed lots of funds to Russia as well as the other former communist countries. see https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/senate-bill/1641. Executive Summary: Fiscal Year 2010 Report on U.S. Government Assistance to and Cooperative Activities with Central and Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and Central Asia
https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1863/EE_20_Year__Review.pdfhttps://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1863/EE_20_Year__Review.pdf
and see especially The Former Soviet Union and U.S. Foreign Assistance in 1992: The Role of Congress

“Members of Congress took the lead on this issue by pressuring the Administration to submit a legislative proposal. The House Foreign Affairs Committee even crafted and, on March 24, 1992, introduced its own authorization bill for the region. On April 1, 1992, President Bush announced the Administration's "comprehensive" legislation, the Freedom Support Act. As Congress debated the Administration bill, attention focused on several key issues. Should the United States assist the former Soviet Union, and, if so, how much money should the country provide? How much freedom should the Administration have to carry out an assistance program for the region? What kind of conditions must the new states meet in order to be eligible for assistance? What specific programs should the U.S. support with its funding? As the bill moved through committee and floor debate, Congress molded and transformed the Administration bill in critical ways. Unlike the Administration, Congress established specific levels of funding. It placed some restrictions on Administration flexibility. It recommended criteria that countries should follow to be eligible for assistance and established prohibitions on assistance. Finally, Congress listed a range of programs, some of which were recommended, others clear priorities, for adoption by the Administration. Like most important and controversial legislation, passage of the Freedom Support Act was a process affected by diverse and conflicting interests. The House and Senate took different approaches to the bill. The bipartisan support of congressional leaders was considered crucial to the success of the legislation. Multiple committee jurisdiction was resolved, but not without some friction. Perhaps the most dramatic conflict affecting the legislation was that caused by those who held the bill hostage to the passage of domestic economic legislation. In the end, Congress produced a policy for the United States to follow in its efforts to influence the former Soviet Union. The Freedom Support Act was approved by the Senate on July 2, 1992, by a 76-20 vote. The House approved the bill on August 6, 1992 by a 255-164 vote. The Senate passed the conference report on October 1 and the House followed on October 3. The President signed the Freedom Support Act into law ( P.L. 102-511 ) on October 25.”