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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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From the US perspective, I believe this is more about bleeding the Russians than winning or loosing.

Even if Russia wins, they will be absorbing a wastland. Most of the best people will leave the country, with only those haveing no place left to go, staying.

Russia will have used up it's Army, weapons, and will remain isolated from all but China for many years.

After the war, China will see little value in parterning with Russia as they will then also be cut off from the rest of the World.

Most of China's stockpile of weapons were purchased from the Russians. They can see now that those weapons are relatively useless against the more advanced Western weapons.

Right now, China is negotiating with Russial to sell them back some of the old tanks and shells they have purchased from them in the past. To me, this looks more like Capitalism than Communism.
 
Would argue even a situation where Russia were to hold ~50% of their existing occupied territory in Ukraine for years would be a relative win for Ukraine that were to continue to receive western support.

Indeed, Russia would acquire that wasteland that would continue to bleed it economically, demographically, and politically. Ukraine of course badly weakened, but continues to survive instead of being annihilated. Long game would remain hopeful Russia would continue to rot and that Ukraine would regain full sovereignty and rebuild under the EU and perhaps even a NATO umbrella.
 
They have done nothing of that kind. I do find it rather arrogant to dismiss countries that don't support Ukraine like India (pop. 1.3 billion) and Brazil (pop. >200 million) as basically irrelevant, even though they are ranked well above Ukraine in the EIU Democracy Index.
As to Western criticism of Ukraine for its corruption, it would be nice if you stopped your US navel gazing and looked e.g. at Chatham House's research paper on Ukraine’s "crony capitalism" from as recently as 2021.
Not that it changes things much, given as others pointed out, outside a few narrow exceptions, pretty much all of the free world is supporting Ukraine, but to throw in India and not point out their huge military dealings (India's the biggest buyer of Russian military equipment) with Russia is being more than a bit disingenuous.

They even abstained in the UN vote that was supported by 141 countries (even Brazil didn't). That should tell you a bit how tied they are to Russia.
 
I did include Australia, but I forgot/missed including New Zealand. My apologies.

My bad. Missed that the first time.

Excellent point. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Ukraine are far and away the most advanced, civilized, democratic, free, educated, etc. countries from the USSR. Whatever country is fifth (maybe Kazakhstan?) is a distant fifth.

Russia of course has descended to the 9th circle of hell and will bring down every other country that it has significant dealings with.

The Baltic Republics have the advantage of being the last republics added to the USSR in 1940. When they broke away from the USSR they still had their independence in living memory.

Let's not forget about Georgia. Freedom House gives them a score of 58/100. In 2017 they got 64/100. I wonder what that score would have been today if the Russian Dictator hadn't invaded Georgia in 2008...


The Russians got a pro-Moscow puppet regime installed after the 2008 invasion. The Georgians themselves aren't happy with it. A large contingent of Georgians are fighting for Ukraine in this war.

Your position is appealing but is really not very accurate. The truth is far more complex than that and historians such as Timothy Snyder in 'Bloodlines' for example clearly explain that.
The most concise explanation for the crucial role 'the ukraine' and Kiev have had in Russia (that I have seen, anyway), is this one:
"Russia and Ukraine have strong familial bonds that go back centuries. Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, is sometimes referred to as “the mother of Russian cities,” on par in terms of cultural influence with Moscow and St. Petersburg. It was in Kyiv in the eighth and ninth centuries that Christianity was brought from Byzantium to the Slavic peoples. And it was Christianity that served as the anchor for Kievan Rus, the early Slavic state from which modern Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarussians draw their lineage."

It is folly to imagine that ethnocentric ethnic Russians can really imagine Russia and the Ukraine as separate, indeed they usually see Kiev and environs as the birthplace of the Russian identity, "the mother of Russian cities" as car says above.

That historical base makes powerful motivation for the Russia power base, but is largely meaningless to any of the ethnic minorities that are the core of military enlisted/conscripted forces, many of whom probably know nothing at all about that history and care nothing about it anyway. Through hundreds of years that situation has always been a crucial weakness for Russian forces, compensated in part by technological advances in military equipment that themselves were frequently done in 'the Ukraine'.

As Snyder points out in detail, the breakup of the Soviet Union itself also separated core parts of the Russian identity, especially Ukraine and Georgia. Today there is increasing resistance also in the East with independent Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan reflecting their ancient ties and perhaps the most humiliating being Kazakhstan:

All this is far more threatening to Putin regime that just the loss of Ukraine.
For some reason few people seem to note how consequential it is that formerly quiescent Eastern Republics are asserting themselves in threatening ways. With both East and West threats now strengthening there is a very different situation than there was only six months ago.

I do not pretend to know what all this means. Frankly I doubt anyone knows even inside the Moscow Kremlin. After all China, Iran and Syria are inextricably related to all this and are in lesser ways even Slovakia, Turkey, and others.

Sorry, I was glossing. I have seen the lecture series by Timothy Snyder and have read Kamil Galeev a fair bit. Both talk a lot about this history.

But Timothy Snyder has said in many places that the Russians don't think of Ukraine as a separate country. He points out in the lecture series the fault in referring to Ukraine as "the Ukraine". I believe the Slavic languages have a term "na" which is translated in English as "the" which refers to an area that doesn't have a legal definition, like Americans would refer to Appalachia which is a region with common cultural characteristics, but covers several US states and portions of other US states.

By saying "The Ukraine" is denigrating Ukraine as a place without any political identity or existence. Russians referring to Ukraine frequently say things that indicate Ukraine is not a real place, it's just a region like Siberia is a region without a separate political or legal identity.

But yes, the roots of the interconnection between Ukraine and Russia go back centuries and Kyiv is far older. Kyiv was the hub of culture for the region until the Mongols destroyed it and Moskva rose in prominence to take over the region.

Drone refresh desired


I've thought for some time that cheap commercial drones on the battlefield are enjoying a moment and that window will close. Everybody is working on anti-drone tech and by the next war, the only drones that will survive are those that are hardened to survive the anti-drone warfare techniques.

In the Battle of the Atlantic there was a constant churn of new electronic technologies with the Allies employing new electronics to find submarines and the Germans employing new techniques to evade the electronics. A similar game is likely going to start with drones.

From the US perspective, I believe this is more about bleeding the Russians than winning or loosing.

Even if Russia wins, they will be absorbing a wastland. Most of the best people will leave the country, with only those haveing no place left to go, staying.

At minimum the US wants to degrade Russia's ability to do this sort of thing. Helping Ukraine is also a win for US memes. Ukraine is the shining example of an emerging democracy fighting off an unwarranted invasion by a corrupt power. It's exactly the sort of freedom fighting meme many US administrations have talked about, only this time it's all true. Unlike past wars like Vietnam or Central America.

At this point Russia can't win this war. To successfully occupy a country, an invading army needs to bring 20 troops per 1000 population and that's only if the army has been broken and defeated. Russia never brought enough troops to begin with. If they had invaded with 900,000 troops they could probably have subdued Ukraine, but they only invaded with about 100,000 and once Ukraine got its footing and started fighting back, the odds of Russia winning went to zero very fast.

The US made the same mistake invading Iraq in 2003. Because Iraq's army was weak, the US won the conventional war quickly, but lost the following insurgency that grew up because the US didn't have enough troops in country to stop it from happening.

If Ukraine doesn't get the equipment it needs, this war could drag on for some time, but Russia can't win. The best they can hope for is a frozen conflict. At this point the Russians are outnumbered about 4 to 1 or more. The Ukrainian army is now 1.2 million strong and all are dedicated to running out the Russians. The Russians may have as many as 300,000 dedicated to the conflict, but it may be fewer than that at this point. We don't know how many Russians are left.

There has been a discussion about Ukrainian corruption, but one thing I've seen clearly over the last year is that the government is using the war as a catalyst to eliminate corruption in Ukraine. They have made many arrests of people who were skimming.

Ukraine has been drifting westward for the last 10 years, but it's remained locked in the old Russian/Soviet mindset which is very corrupt. The war has established new memes in Ukraine that honesty is a western value and corruption is a Russian value and now the vast majority of Ukrainians want to be part of the west and outside the Russian world.

Another concept in Ukrainian thought now is that corruption hurts the war effort, so being corrupt helps Russia.

There are still corrupt individuals in Ukraine, but the culture there has shifted from being very tolerant of corruption to being intolerant and this will likely continue after the war. The country has made a shift in consciousness from a blended European/Russian culture to a European culture.

Russia will have used up it's Army, weapons, and will remain isolated from all but China for many years.

After the war, China will see little value in parterning with Russia as they will then also be cut off from the rest of the World.

Most of China's stockpile of weapons were purchased from the Russians. They can see now that those weapons are relatively useless against the more advanced Western weapons.

Right now, China is negotiating with Russial to sell them back some of the old tanks and shells they have purchased from them in the past. To me, this looks more like Capitalism than Communism.

Most of China's military hardware today is built in China, but a lot of it is derived from Russian/Soviet designs. They do have old Russian made equipment, probably most of it in reserve/storage at this point. Selling off the old stuff in storage is probably a win-win for China, they get to make a few wan flogging the old equipment they no longer want.

China has been a capitalist/communist country for more than 30 years now. It isn't exactly inline with what Karl Marx thought communism should be, but it is inline with Chinese culture which has been very capitalist for a very long time.
 
But Timothy Snyder has said in many places that the Russians don't think of Ukraine as a separate country. He points out in the lecture series the fault in referring to Ukraine as "the Ukraine". I believe the Slavic languages have a term "na" which is translated in English as "the" which refers to an area that doesn't have a legal definition, like Americans would refer to Appalachia which is a region with common cultural characteristics, but covers several US states and portions of other US states.

Depending on the post, I either read that Ukrainians and Russians are of the same cloth, or I read that Russians view Ukrainians as sub-human.
I doubt both are true in Russian messaging and decision making. I do accept that the Russian nationalist-fascist contingent view Ukraine as part of Imperial Russia
 
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My bad. Missed that the first time.

The Baltic Republics have the advantage of being the last republics added to the USSR in 1940. When they broke away from the USSR they still had their independence in living memory.

The Russians got a pro-Moscow puppet regime installed after the 2008 invasion. The Georgians themselves aren't happy with it. A large contingent of Georgians are fighting for Ukraine in this war.

Sorry, I was glossing. I have seen the lecture series by Timothy Snyder and have read Kamil Galeev a fair bit. Both talk a lot about this history.

But Timothy Snyder has said in many places that the Russians don't think of Ukraine as a separate country. He points out in the lecture series the fault in referring to Ukraine as "the Ukraine". I believe the Slavic languages have a term "na" which is translated in English as "the" which refers to an area that doesn't have a legal definition, like Americans would refer to Appalachia which is a region with common cultural characteristics, but covers several US states and portions of other US states.

By saying "The Ukraine" is denigrating Ukraine as a place without any political identity or existence. Russians referring to Ukraine frequently say things that indicate Ukraine is not a real place, it's just a region like Siberia is a region without a separate political or legal identity.

But yes, the roots of the interconnection between Ukraine and Russia go back centuries and Kyiv is far older. Kyiv was the hub of culture for the region until the Mongols destroyed it and Moskva rose in prominence to take over the region.

I've thought for some time that cheap commercial drones on the battlefield are enjoying a moment and that window will close. Everybody is working on anti-drone tech and by the next war, the only drones that will survive are those that are hardened to survive the anti-drone warfare techniques.

In the Battle of the Atlantic there was a constant churn of new electronic technologies with the Allies employing new electronics to find submarines and the Germans employing new techniques to evade the electronics. A similar game is likely going to start with drones.

At minimum the US wants to degrade Russia's ability to do this sort of thing. Helping Ukraine is also a win for US memes. Ukraine is the shining example of an emerging democracy fighting off an unwarranted invasion by a corrupt power. It's exactly the sort of freedom fighting meme many US administrations have talked about, only this time it's all true. Unlike past wars like Vietnam or Central America.

At this point Russia can't win this war. To successfully occupy a country, an invading army needs to bring 20 troops per 1000 population and that's only if the army has been broken and defeated. Russia never brought enough troops to begin with. If they had invaded with 900,000 troops they could probably have subdued Ukraine, but they only invaded with about 100,000 and once Ukraine got its footing and started fighting back, the odds of Russia winning went to zero very fast.

The US made the same mistake invading Iraq in 2003. Because Iraq's army was weak, the US won the conventional war quickly, but lost the following insurgency that grew up because the US didn't have enough troops in country to stop it from happening.

If Ukraine doesn't get the equipment it needs, this war could drag on for some time, but Russia can't win. The best they can hope for is a frozen conflict. At this point the Russians are outnumbered about 4 to 1 or more. The Ukrainian army is now 1.2 million strong and all are dedicated to running out the Russians. The Russians may have as many as 300,000 dedicated to the conflict, but it may be fewer than that at this point. We don't know how many Russians are left.

There has been a discussion about Ukrainian corruption, but one thing I've seen clearly over the last year is that the government is using the war as a catalyst to eliminate corruption in Ukraine. They have made many arrests of people who were skimming.

Ukraine has been drifting westward for the last 10 years, but it's remained locked in the old Russian/Soviet mindset which is very corrupt. The war has established new memes in Ukraine that honesty is a western value and corruption is a Russian value and now the vast majority of Ukrainians want to be part of the west and outside the Russian world.

Another concept in Ukrainian thought now is that corruption hurts the war effort, so being corrupt helps Russia.

There are still corrupt individuals in Ukraine, but the culture there has shifted from being very tolerant of corruption to being intolerant and this will likely continue after the war. The country has made a shift in consciousness from a blended European/Russian culture to a European culture.

Most of China's military hardware today is built in China, but a lot of it is derived from Russian/Soviet designs. They do have old Russian made equipment, probably most of it in reserve/storage at this point. Selling off the old stuff in storage is probably a win-win for China, they get to make a few wan flogging the old equipment they no longer want.

China has been a capitalist/communist country for more than 30 years now. It isn't exactly inline with what Karl Marx thought communism should be, but it is inline with Chinese culture which has been very capitalist for a very long time.
Thanks for all your posts @wdolson .

So Russia = corrupt (bad)
Ukrainian patriots = honest (good)

Am I a dreamer to hope Russian orthodox "Christians" being KGB controlled might set a new, widely accepted paradigm in favor of reason and sanity vs. religion, or at least opens everyone's eyes about the damage religion causes?
 
Depending on the post, I either read that Ukrainians and Russians are of the same cloth, or I read that Russians view Ukrainians as sub-human.
I doubt both are true in Russian messaging and decision making. I do accept that the Russian nationalist-fascist contingent view Ukraine as part of Imperial Russia
Just like you have regions with different flavors in the US, you have that in Russia and Ukraine. Of the total 10 years (not continuous) I spent in both countries, I saw a lot of snobbishness based on where you were from.

If you come from one of the capital cities in Russia (Moscow or St Petersburg), everyone else in the country is basically from the hicks. When I lived in Moscow, I encountered so many people who claimed to Muscovites that based on their accident were clearly not from there.

In Ukraine, it would basically Kyiv and then some of the other major cities at the top of the list. In general I saw Russians were often dismissive of their "little brother" Ukraine in a way I couldn't quite fathom and it annoyed the heck out of my Ukrainian friends.

Once Ukraine made their national language Ukrainian again, I saw a distinct shift away from Russia. There were still many family members who had relatives in Russia, or come from Russia, but the Ukrainian was becoming a more common national identity in a lot of the country even if it did start more in the western part. When you had solely Ukrainian band, Okean Elzy, start to make a dent in Russian music, even on MTV Russia, it was really supporting the Ukrainian national identity and breaking away from Russia even more at a cultural level. Their song that really caused them to break out "Tam, de nas nema" is actually quite good.

This really got the younger generations onboard and identifying with Ukraine more than Russia.

As for corruption, I lived in Russia for about 5 years straight. Corruption was an every day fact of life. It was systemic and almost at all levels. While Ukraine was corrupt, I saw it less at the local level. Zelensky ran on a platform of removing corruption. As deeply ingrained as it was, it was never going to be removed overnight.

In Russia I was constantly shaken down by the local militia (police). They assumed I was a stupid foreigner, but I was not. From speeding tickets to visa issues, to almost every place they could try and shake me down, they gave it a shot. A lot less so in Ukraine. I must say that one of episodes of a very egregious attempt at corruption almost resulted in me and some friends going to jail in Ukraine. Thankfully I played dumb and the police were talking in Russian and didn't know I understood everything they were saying. It was an epic attempt at a shakedown though so I'll give them props for trying.

At the same time, corruption can be useful if used for your benefit and it doesn't really hurt anyone. When I had my apartment in Sevastopol (in Crimea and before the Russian appropriated it with the invasion of Crimea). I used to keep a case of vodka in my car for whenever I got stopped.

The militia in Russia and Ukraine typically only stop you for typically 2 reasons; they are either hungry or thirsty. Food would spoil so I kept a case of good vodka on hand. They sometimes view you as an ATM machine as well. I bought a cheap car to drive and never dressed nicely. I wanted to keep my donations at a minimum if I had to give them. Attracting as little attention as a foreigner as possible is the way to a less stressful time there.

I am probably one of the few people in the world that can say I am alive thanks to Putin rather than dead. Which is rather ironic given my opinion of him. That is a story for another day over some beers and not in a public forum anyway.

If the world had stood up to Putin when he invaded Crimea (that means you President Obama), we wouldn't be here now.
 
I know much less than many of you but I have interpreted T. Snyder's lectures as emphasizing the Mongol aspect of Moscow as separate from the Ukraine region for centuries related to Poland, Lithuania, Prussia, Ottoman and others. This may be simplistic on my part but Ukraine appears to be culturally more affected by multiple influences than Moscow's Mongol Horde influences.

Maybe I don't understand but it appears to me that Russia today exhibits more Mongol traits than European ones. I would appreciate your thoughts on this.
 
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I know much less than many of you but I have interpreted T. Snyder's lectures as emphasizing the Mongol aspect of Moscow as separate from the Ukraine region for centuries related to Poland, Lithuania, Prussia, Ottoman and others. This may be simplistic on my part but Ukraine appears to be culturally more affected by multiple influences than Moscow's Mongol Horde influences.

Maybe I don't understand but it appears to me that Russia today exhibits more Mongol traits than European ones. I would appreciate your thoughts on this.

I have not watched that Snyder lecture. But this thread is now on page 510, so this 'Mongol-schtick' has been brought up before...

In Sweden we have a state run public service radio channel called P1. "...] which subtitles itself "The spoken channel" [...]. [It] is the principal radio channel in Sweden for news, community programmes, culture, radio drama, debate, science, philosophy, the expression of opinion and international issues. [..."

I'm pretty sure I've listened to literally everything they've transmitted about the Russian Dictator's Genocide in Ukraine. Everything on that channel is available as a podcast.

And no-one has mentioned this 'Mongol-schtick' even once(!)...

And they have had A LOT of people on. From academia, from diplomacy, Russian based correspondents that have spent years in the country, politicians like former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, military experts and more.

My suggestion:

Think like this instead:

Monarchy (as in a 'tsar' or 'empress')/Feudalism – Communist clusterf*** revolution – Military Dictatorship – Failed attempt at Democracy involving a clusterf*** of Shock Therapy Neo-liberal Capitalism – The current Russian Dictator – The levelling of Grozny – The attack on Georgia – The attack in 2014 against Crimea and the Donbas – The Current Genocide in Ukraine


This former head of the NKVD (the predecessor to the KGB) is likely a key figure for understanding today's Russia:


"...] At Beria's trial in 1953, it became known that he had committed numerous rapes during the years he was NKVD chief.[67] Montefiore concludes that the information "reveals a sexual predator who used his power to indulge himself in obsessive depravity".[68] [...] In 2003, the Russian government acknowledged Sarkisov's handwritten list of Beria's victims, which reportedly contains hundreds of names.[74] The victims' names were also released to the public in 2003.[74] [..."

This is a good movie if you haven't seen it:

And this is a really good TV-show (if you haven't seen it):
 
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Thanks for all your posts @wdolson .

So Russia = corrupt (bad)
Ukrainian patriots = honest (good)

Am I a dreamer to hope Russian orthodox "Christians" being KGB controlled might set a new, widely accepted paradigm in favor of reason and sanity vs. religion, or at least opens everyone's eyes about the damage religion causes?

It seems to me that change rarely happens by itself. It seems to require actions and organizing by people...
 
Depending on the post, I either read that Ukrainians and Russians are of the same cloth, or I read that Russians view Ukrainians as sub-human.
I doubt both are true in Russian messaging and decision making. I do accept that the Russian nationalist-fascist contingent view Ukraine as part of Imperial Russia

There is a contradictory fault line running through Russian thinking. Among the Muskovites/Russians in power, being Russian is the best thing a person could possibly be. Timothy Snyder talks about the belief that Russians are eternally innocent and therefore can't do wrong. It's a very convoluted thought process and I'd refer you to the lecture series for the detailed explanation. It's so bizarre I don't remember the details.
The thinking of the Russians is alien to us in the west. The Russian leaders talk about how Russia is the inheritor to the Roman Empire. The progression goes Rome->Byzantium->Russia. It's almost like it's some sort of prophesy fulfilled. There is magic thinking there.

To these people being Russian is the best thing, and the people who have the opportunity to become Russian, but decline are just ignorant. They are passing up the opportunity to be great.

But there are different types of Russians. There are the Muscovite/St Petersburg Russians who are at the top of the pecking order and then there are other Russians who are subservient to the top Russians.

In the mind of these people, the Ukrainians should be second tier Russians. The truth is that Russia is diminished without Ukraine. Ukraine did a lot of the higher tech quality manufacturing and design in the USSR and Russia is struggling without Ukraine. Before the invasion, Ukraine was making a lot of tech that went into Russian products. Russia needs Ukraine to make tech items like weapons.

On the one hand, the Russian leaders consider the second tier Russians as sub-human, but at the same time they are also Russian.

It's convoluted and tough to fully grok. Russian thinking is alien to a westerner.

Thanks for all your posts @wdolson .

So Russia = corrupt (bad)
Ukrainian patriots = honest (good)

Am I a dreamer to hope Russian orthodox "Christians" being KGB controlled might set a new, widely accepted paradigm in favor of reason and sanity vs. religion, or at least opens everyone's eyes about the damage religion causes?

Nothing is black and white, but as far as who is right and who is wrong with regards to this war, it is pretty clear cut. Ukraine is the wronged party here. Since the early 1990s all they have really wanted was to exist in peace. They did everything within reason to try and co-exist with their larger neighbor.

Russia was too weak to try anything for some time, but under Putin they tried to keep Ukraine as a vassal state and when Ukraine made it clear in 2014 they wanted to go their own way, Russia stepped up the aggression.

2014 was the equivalent of Germany taking back the Rhineland in 1936. If France and the UK had reacted then, Hitler would have been stopped before he got started. But they showed weakness and Hitler kept going.

But in 2014 Ukraine was not strong enough to defend itself. It was still finding its footing with a new government after the Maidan Revolution and the army was in disarray. One thing the Obama administration and other NATO countries did do was to start training the Ukrainian army in NATO tactics and it revolutionized the army. Both Ben Hodges and Mark Hertling were involved in this training and both predicted the Ukrainians would win from the start of the war. They knew what kind of army Ukraine had, even though few outside of Ukraine saw that.

In 2022 Putin expected the same weak response from the Ukrainian army as 2014, but instead he found a NATO trained force that was much better disciplined and trained than his own forces. The army Ukraine is fielding today is not only larger than it was in February 2022, but it's also much better trained. One of the NATO lessons is to always be learning and adapting to changing conditions and Ukraine took that to heart. They are probably the best trained army in the world for this type of war right now. The rest of the world will be learning from them in the coming years.

I wouldn't say religion is completely bad, but it is an institution that can be corrupted by bad actors for their own ends. This has happened on a massive scale with the Russian Orthodox Church and it has happened on smaller scales with other religions around the world. It's one thing to say "I think you should do X", it's another to say "a deity told me you should do X".

There is nothing inherently bad with having beliefs and there are many religious organizations that have done good in the world. But everything has to be taken on a case by case basis. I personally don't like others telling me what I should believe, but others find comfort in a religious community.

Just like you have regions with different flavors in the US, you have that in Russia and Ukraine. Of the total 10 years (not continuous) I spent in both countries, I saw a lot of snobbishness based on where you were from.

If you come from one of the capital cities in Russia (Moscow or St Petersburg), everyone else in the country is basically from the hicks. When I lived in Moscow, I encountered so many people who claimed to Muscovites that based on their accident were clearly not from there.

In Ukraine, it would basically Kyiv and then some of the other major cities at the top of the list. In general I saw Russians were often dismissive of their "little brother" Ukraine in a way I couldn't quite fathom and it annoyed the heck out of my Ukrainian friends.

Once Ukraine made their national language Ukrainian again, I saw a distinct shift away from Russia. There were still many family members who had relatives in Russia, or come from Russia, but the Ukrainian was becoming a more common national identity in a lot of the country even if it did start more in the western part. When you had solely Ukrainian band, Okean Elzy, start to make a dent in Russian music, even on MTV Russia, it was really supporting the Ukrainian national identity and breaking away from Russia even more at a cultural level. Their song that really caused them to break out "Tam, de nas nema" is actually quite good.

This really got the younger generations onboard and identifying with Ukraine more than Russia.

As for corruption, I lived in Russia for about 5 years straight. Corruption was an every day fact of life. It was systemic and almost at all levels. While Ukraine was corrupt, I saw it less at the local level. Zelensky ran on a platform of removing corruption. As deeply ingrained as it was, it was never going to be removed overnight.

In Russia I was constantly shaken down by the local militia (police). They assumed I was a stupid foreigner, but I was not. From speeding tickets to visa issues, to almost every place they could try and shake me down, they gave it a shot. A lot less so in Ukraine. I must say that one of episodes of a very egregious attempt at corruption almost resulted in me and some friends going to jail in Ukraine. Thankfully I played dumb and the police were talking in Russian and didn't know I understood everything they were saying. It was an epic attempt at a shakedown though so I'll give them props for trying.

At the same time, corruption can be useful if used for your benefit and it doesn't really hurt anyone. When I had my apartment in Sevastopol (in Crimea and before the Russian appropriated it with the invasion of Crimea). I used to keep a case of vodka in my car for whenever I got stopped.

The militia in Russia and Ukraine typically only stop you for typically 2 reasons; they are either hungry or thirsty. Food would spoil so I kept a case of good vodka on hand. They sometimes view you as an ATM machine as well. I bought a cheap car to drive and never dressed nicely. I wanted to keep my donations at a minimum if I had to give them. Attracting as little attention as a foreigner as possible is the way to a less stressful time there.

I am probably one of the few people in the world that can say I am alive thanks to Putin rather than dead. Which is rather ironic given my opinion of him. That is a story for another day over some beers and not in a public forum anyway.

If the world had stood up to Putin when he invaded Crimea (that means you President Obama), we wouldn't be here now.

There were some heavy sanctions put on Russia in 2014 which were considered pretty strong at the time. But unfortunately Ukraine was not prepared to defend itself then. Militarily stopping Putin would have meant direct involvement by western countries in the conflict and there was little stomach for that in 2014.

I remember a thread from Kamil Galeev about 8 months ago about how people in the west are safe to show off their wealth, but in Russia nobody demonstrates they have anything unless they are super rich and can afford a bunch of bodyguards. Anybody demonstrating any wealth will quickly have it stolen. If someone doesn't give up their wealth, they might be tortured until they do.

I thought about that when I saw a video of someone in St Petersburg who was trying to exchange a couple of hundred thousand rubles for Euros on the street (probably planning to escape to the west) and some street thugs ran in and took it all.

I have not watched that Snyder lecture. But this thread is now on page 510, so this 'Mongol-schtick' has been brought up before...

In Sweden we have a state run public service radio channel called P1. "...] which subtitles itself "The spoken channel" [...]. [It] is the principal radio channel in Sweden for news, community programmes, culture, radio drama, debate, science, philosophy, the expression of opinion and international issues. [..."

I'm pretty sure I've listened to literally everything they've transmitted about the Russian Dictator's Genocide in Ukraine. Everything on that channel is available as a podcast.

And no-one has mentioned this 'Mongol-schtick' even once(!)...

I had a number of good news sources that I regularly tuned in before the war on various topics. Early in the war I became disgusted with all of them. Their coverage of the war was terrible.

I sought out and found a number of English language sources that were closer to the source. These were sometimes ex-pats of Russia or Ukraine, sometimes Ukrainians in country. Nexta is run by someone from Belarus living in exile in Poland. There are also sources like Mark Hertling and Ben Hodges who have direct experience training the Ukrainian army.

I sorted for the sources that made sense. I have been a student of military history virtually my entire life. I turned away from my normal news sources because what they were saying just didn't square with what I knew about how military operations worked and the new sources did.

Sources like Kamil Galeev and Timothy Snyder don't address the military aspects directly, but they understand Russian thinking better than most of the west. In Galeev's case, he grew up in Russia, went to university in the UK, and now works as an intelligence analyst in the United States. He is very well versed in history, both what they teach in Russia and what is taught in the west and he knows the differences.

Timothy Snyder is one of the top historians in the US on eastern Europe and Russia. He is appearing in a lot of places now because of his expertise. In the lecture series on YouTube he mentioned a number of times that there were students in the class from Ukraine and eastern Europe. They probably wouldn't be taking classes from him if what he was saying didn't conform to the history they already knew from their home country.

I don't know about other county's reporting on this war. While I have striven to be as worldly as possible throughout my adult life, unfortunately I am mono-linguistic which limits me to English language sources.

I don't know the quality of Swedish mainstream news coverage, but American mainstream news coverage of this war has been terrible. Sources that usually get the story pretty close to right have just blown it with coverage that doesn't match what I could see happening.

But then US war coverage is not usually very high quality. During the first Gulf War I was living in Seattle and could tune in the CBC over the air from Vancouver in Canada. I thought their coverage was much better than any of the American TV sources I had. Of course we didn't have internet coverage then.

The Mongol ties to Moscow are way back in history. A lot of people probably never think of going back that far to look. Russia is a country that straddles two continents. They want to be seen as European. The Russian courts went overboard in the trappings of the west. Art forms like ballet are big in Russia, but started in Europe.

A deep insult in Russia is to call someone "nekulturny" which means uncultured. The meaning is you don't have the cultured graces of Europeans.

But at the same time, the Russians fight wars like Mongols. They always have.

Russia has straddled the fence between the culture of Europe and northern Asia for all of its existence. Ukraine has straddled the fence between Russia and Europe for most of the same time period. This war has pushed Ukraine over the fence and they are running towards European values and rejecting the Russian ones.

Continued:

A couple of months back – how many of us in this thread knew that the "Russian Orthodox Church = KGB/FSB"?...

I didn't.

How many other people know this?...

I think I saw Kamil Galeev write about it last spring.
 
I have not watched that Snyder lecture. But this thread is now on page 510, so this 'Mongol-schtick' has been brought up before...

In Sweden we have a state run public service radio channel called P1. "...] which subtitles itself "The spoken channel" [...]. [It] is the principal radio channel in Sweden for news, community programmes, culture, radio drama, debate, science, philosophy, the expression of opinion and international issues. [..."

I'm pretty sure I've listened to literally everything they've transmitted about the Russian Dictator's Genocide in Ukraine. Everything on that channel is available as a podcast.

And no-one has mentioned this 'Mongol-schtick' even once(!)...

And they have had A LOT of people on. From academia, from diplomacy, Russian based correspondents that have spent years in the country, politicians like former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, military experts and more.

My suggestion:

Think like this instead:

Monarchy (as in a 'tsar' or 'empress')/Feudalism – Communist clusterf*** revolution – Military Dictatorship – Failed attempt at Democracy involving a clusterf*** of Shock Therapy Neo-liberal Capitalism – The current Russian Dictator – The levelling of Grozny – The attack on Georgia – The attack in 2014 against Crimea and the Donbas – The Current Genocide in Ukraine


This former head of the NKVD (the predecessor to the KGB) is likely a key figure for understanding today's Russia:


"...] At Beria's trial in 1953, it became known that he had committed numerous rapes during the years he was NKVD chief.[67] Montefiore concludes that the information "reveals a sexual predator who used his power to indulge himself in obsessive depravity".[68] [...] In 2003, the Russian government acknowledged Sarkisov's handwritten list of Beria's victims, which reportedly contains hundreds of names.[74] The victims' names were also released to the public in 2003.[74] [..."

This is a good movie if you haven't seen it:

And this is a really good TV-show (if you haven't seen it):
the best overview I have seen is from the Finnish military bloke and he did discuss the issue of mongol period- specifically how it influenced lying and clan/ group issues.
 
Morning update excerpt....this is not a good look for US Intelligence & it's relationship with allies, etc.:

What leaked​

The documents appear to come from multiple sources, including briefings for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and updates from the C.I.A. Some are marked “top secret.” Many focus on the war in Ukraine. The information falls into three categories:​
Details about ongoing campaigns: The leaked documents describe Ukraine’s struggling air defenses and Western plans for Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive against Russia — details that could help Russia. For example, the leaked slides include maps of Ukrainian air defenses. Those defenses have deterred Russian planes from striking deep into Ukraine for much of the conflict, but the leak could help the Russian military bypass them.​
The documents also disclose information that the U.S. had obtained from its infiltration of Russia’s military intelligence service. Russia could use that information to try to discover American sources and to lock down its own operations to stop leaks to the U.S.​
Broader strategy: The documents also touch on more general assessments about the war in Ukraine, though little is new. For instance, they predict that neither Russia nor Ukraine will make progress this year in breaking the stalemate in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas. But U.S. officials openly share this view. “It gives you a sense of how some American officials are coming to the broader, public judgment that neither side is in a position to win in the coming year,” David said.​
Chatter about allies: Some of the most sensitive material in the leaks is about American allies. The documents claim that Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, encouraged staff and civilians to participate in recent protests against the government. Israel’s government denied this claim. The documents also reveal the U.S. was listening in on conversations between South Korean officials over whether to help send Ukraine 330,000 rounds of ammunition, potentially in contradiction to South Korea’s stance against providing lethal weapons to nations at war.​
The South Korea leak comes at a particularly bad time — weeks before President Yoon Suk Yeol travels to Washington for a state dinner in his honor. “To have it laid out in detail that we’re listening in on his national security aides is more than a little embarrassing,” David said.​
A few details in the documents also seem to be false or doctored, such as overestimates of Ukrainian casualties in the war. It’s possible Russian officials or others altered the documents before posting, or reposting, them on social media platforms.​