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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Game Changers in the UKR:
HIMARS
Leopards
Bradley's
Storm Shadows
Cluster Munitions

Anyone seeing a trend? None of these have been or will be "game changers".

 
Game Changers in the UKR:
HIMARS
Leopards
Bradley's
Storm Shadows
Cluster Munitions

Anyone seeing a trend? None of these have been or will be "game changers".


Right . . . not calling HIMARS "game changing" is just flat out . . . well . . .

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I hope you are right but intuitively he can easily spin this internally as a loss/stalemate against the whole of NATO. I think he will hold onto power.

Putin is a cockroach and has become a master at manipulating Russian politics, but cockroaches can be killed and most political manipulators run out of luck eventually. There is more opposition to Putin now than any time in his 24 years in power. He also hasn't screwed up this badly during his reign.

Hah! I doubt that.
My thought is that the people writing rebuttals have good intentions, and they are likely to post things I want to read when they are not posting useless rebuttals. And fwiw, the rebuttals may benefit *someone* -- just not me.

As an aside, I get the impression that some people enjoy sharpening their rhetorical skills by ripping into trolls. It does clutter up the thread so I do not condone it (which is I think your point), but I have bigger fish to fry.

In any thread there are a fair number of silent readers who are reading but not participating. These people are usually starting from a lower information point than the participants. Letting someone post something ridiculous without comment might leave the impression that the person has a point whereas at least one post debunking it helps to set the record straight.

The US cluster munitions are supposedly much more reliable than the Russian ones - i.e. the US ones are less likely to leave unexploded munitions around to injure people later. So, the sooner we can motivate Russia to end the war the fewer unexploded cluster munitions there will be. US cluster munitions are perhaps a much lessor evil than dragging the war out longer than necessary.

The dud rate for Russian cluster munitions is about 30-40%, possibly higher in weapons that have been in storage a long time. US cluster munitions have about a 2% dud rate.

Russia has also made heavy use of cluster munition since the early part of the war, and as others have pointed out their use has been more on civilians than on military targets. The Ukrainians have used some of the old Soviet cluster munitions they have too, but always on military targets.

Ukraine is fighting to take back their own country and are planning to use the US cluster munitions only on Ukrainian territory. They know the risks and are willing to deal with the consequences after the war. Because Russian cluster munitions are so unreliable, Ukraine has a much more serious problem in the coming years from un-exploded Russian bomblets than they will with American bomblets, even if the US sends their entire arsenal of cluster munitions and they get used up.

Ukraine is going to be a minefield of un-exploded munitions of all kinds for the rest of our lives. On top of all the mines the Russians have sown, and the un-exploded bomblets, Ukraine has to contend with all the dud artillery shells fired off by the Russians during the war. There are probably millions of those. The dud rate for Russian artillery has been around 30% and Russia has fired tens of millions at the Ukrainians.

There are a lot of these bottom-up accounts going round. Whatever Ukraine is doing, it is having an effect on the ability of the Russians to do their military business in an effective way. Such proliferation of these accounts combined with all the senior-level goings-on is not at all normal.


I looked up where they are when they wrote/filmed this. Svitlodarsk, is about 15km behind the front lines. That gives a feel for where the nearest substantive organisational decision centres may be. Get any closer and maybe they become too vulnerable. It is also on the rail network.

View attachment 956691

Sometimes I've been driving down the highway and come upon a car or trailer with a wheel that is obviously wobbling. I see that and think, that could come off at any moment and at highway speeds it could get very messy. I try to get in front of them to if the tire does come off it's behind me.

Russia is driving along at high speed with a couple of wobbling wheels. Nobody knows when the wheels are going to fly off, but the odds are high and getting higher every day.

Dumbass post of the week.

NATO stockpiles decimated? Source please, cite the reference material. Because everything I can find shows that Uncle Sam is STILL ONLY sending their "hand me downs" and "left overs" to Ukraine. Not new kit, not most recent gen stuff (you do know that M1A1 Abrams are 2 gens behind? You do know that the USA stopped using Bradly IFVs years ago? - last one was produced in 1995)


You sir (and I use that term VERY loosely) are nothing but a Russian shill. A shill that can't even make coherent arguments backed by facts.

The US has sent some weapons that were in regular use like the javalins, but the bulk of weapons have come from spare stockpiles. Both the M2 and M3 Bradleys are still in frontline use with the US Army. Around 4000 active, however there is also a massive reserve pool of about 2800 vehicles and the US has been sending those to Ukraine.

This war comes on the heels of the US ending a war and having a lot of spare vehicles it doesn't want. Among those are thousands of MRAPs which are great for crew survivability when there are a lot of mines around. The US bought 25,000 MRAPs and are only planning on keeping a few thousand.

You are correct though. The US is giving away it's surplus and a lot of other militaries are doing the same. Where there are shortages, such as in 155mm artillery ammunition, everybody who can is ramping up production. The media makes such a big deal about US production of 155mm ammunition, but the US has not been the biggest producer of that caliber for a long time. There are a number of ammunition plants in Europe that can make a fairly healthy volume, there is a brand new plant in Australia making 155mm, and South Korea is probably making more than anybody.

SK is quiet about their production volume, but they have a large number of 155mm guns. They have around 6000 in service with several thousand in reserve. I saw an estimate the SK production of ammunition might be on par with all of NATOs production or larger. SK is also retiring a lot of older 155mm guns in favor of their domestically designed and produced guns. They have been reluctant to give weapons to the Ukrainians, but if they could be convinced to break some loose it would help Ukraine a lot.
 
Kerch Bridge attacked again. Looks like the damage to the road bridge is more severe than the last attack. According to OSINTTechnical two spans are down. Live video

Russia is claiming it was drone boats, but it appears both explosions were on the westbound road, which would mean the boats would have had to cross under the eastbound lanes to hit the westbound.
 
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Had the West not gotten involved this war would be over and literally less than 5% of the population in UKR would care that they were part of Russia now.

To me, it is not right, that dictators get to brainwash their people and then oppress them, it's like having abusive parents who keep you in the basement and experiment on you. Thus even if people in Ukraine liked Russia before they got "educated", their opinnion after being educated weights more. It takes time for Stockholm syndrome to cure. Same goes for the Russian people, after they get "educated", they will revolt. Same goes for North Korea.

It is true that ignorance is a bliss, but that should end towards becoming adult. It is ofcourse philosohpical whether the meaning of life should be to serve the supreme leader or the mafia boss, corporate greed, or corrupt government, or just run the rat race, and which one is better, or should we even have the freedom to think something else. Again, if your upbringing is authoritarian you might disagree with people brought up with the thought of freedom of personal choice only influenced by others such as propagand and ads and traditions.
 
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Ukraine is going to be a minefield of un-exploded munitions of all kinds for the rest of our lives. On top of all the mines the Russians have sown, and the un-exploded bomblets, Ukraine has to contend with all the dud artillery shells fired off by the Russians during the war.
Keeping this Tesla related for once, Robots might make good mine clearing machines, starting with drones, then tracked or 4-wheel vehicles, then letting 2-legged Robots do a final check.

Not saying they will get everything, but the occasional brave Optimus dying in the field of duty will not be a total waste, as there may be some useful spare parts that could be salvaged, after a suitably moving ceremony.

Surely it is just a numbers game, and a fairly systematic grid search could be done by a suitably sized fleet of robots.
 
Thanks for asking!

"But he did it first" is a terrible argument. In the current war it could be used to justify murder, rape, torture, castration of POWs, etc. As Barbara Lee famously said: let us not become the evil we deplore.

The inimitable Perun summed up my mixed feelings nicely in his recent video:

Cluster munitions are controversial weapons banned by a number of countries around the world. They can leave behind significant amounts of dirt and unexploded ordinance that require an area being de-mined and cleared before it's safe for civilians to move through again. But they are also arguably highly effective weapons that are available in very large numbers.
Of course I learned a lot more about cluster munitions from that video. Here is something Perun didn't mention. Biden's press secretary at the time, Jen Psaki, said Russia's use of cluster munitions in Ukraine could be a war crime:

Q: Thanks, Jen. There are reports of illegal cluster bombs and vacuum bombs being used by the Russians. If that’s true, what is the next step of this administration? And is there a red line for how much violence will be tolerated against civilians in this manner that’s illegal and potentially a war crime?
MS. PSAKI: It is — it would be. I don’t have any confirmation of that. We have seen the reports. If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime.
For me, it's too hypocritical to turn around and say Ukraine's use of them is peachy-keen, or even acceptable, without at least some mixed feelings.

Perun brings up the slice off a cut loaf argument. Ukraine is already filled with land mines (Ivan Krastev said it would take Ukraine 700 years to de-mine Donbas at their current rate). Would more "land mines" from US cluster munitions make that much of a difference? But IMO Perun's main point is they are very effective and Ukraine is running low on conventional artillery ammunition.

Another downside not mentioned by Perun is that the wide-spread use of US cluster munitions in Ukraine may make it much easier for future aggressors to justify their use with shades of the he did it first argument. It could be a gift that keeps on giving.

Ben Rhodes is against their wide-spread use by Ukraine saying it is uncertain they will sway the outcome of the war but it is certain they will kill innocent civilians. I disagree with his first point. I think cluster munitions will be extremely important in allowing Ukraine to make significant progress in their offensive this summer. But efficacy in shortening the war is the only legitimate reason for their use.

IMHO if Ukraine were winning the artillery battle or close to winning it because Russia was about to run out of shells then use of US cluster munitions would not be justified. But with no NATO aircraft and insufficient numbers of precise long-range missiles, Ukraine needs some other kind of long-range advantage in order to have a successful offensive. This need is unfortunate and we might regret the decision someday.

War is Hell.
There is no "did it first", because there is plenty of evidence Russia have already used cluster bombs. And the part the US would be critical of is using them in areas that knowingly would affect civilians (as Russia appears to have done already). As such it's not hypocritical. As others point out, just using the weapons are not a war crime, it's how you use them.
Use of cluster munitions in the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia
 
Keeping this Tesla related for once, Robots might make good mine clearing machines, starting with drones, then tracked or 4-wheel vehicles, then letting 2-legged Robots do a final check.

Not saying they will get everything, but the occasional brave Optimus dying in the field of duty will not be a total waste, as there may be some useful spare parts that could be salvaged, after a suitably moving ceremony.

Surely it is just a numbers game, and a fairly systematic grid search could be done by a suitably sized fleet of robots.

Rather expensive way to remove mines. Some mines react to something metallic coming near. When they need to probe for mines manually, men are given wooden sticks and they crawl along the ground probe with the sticks. They use wood so they don't trigger the mines with anything metallic. A large machine made out of metal needs to be built tough enough to absorb the blasts from the mines.

Mine rollers attached to the front of a tank do this. There is a video out there of a tank mine roller in action. There are other devices for clearing mines with large machines. One used in WW II, but I haven't seen on modern tanks is a drum with a bunch of steel chains attached that whip the ground ahead of a tank.

A tank is used so if they miss a mine the chances of losing the vehicle and crew is reduced, though the tank is usually put out of action for a while.

A very expensive and very metallic robot would likely get itself blown up and would cost more than the mine that blew it up. There are also different types of mines. Vehicle mines are set to trigger when they get a force on them of something heavier than a human, about 500 pounds or more.

Vehicles with some kind of automated driving system to clear mine fields might be in order, but that's old hat in the ag business. Farmers have been using automated tractors driven with a laser system for some time.
Inter-Drain - Laser Control

Pictures of the Crimean bridge in daylight are coming out

Some video of the damage. Looks like two different videos of the the two different parts damaged
https://twitter.com/search?q="Crimean Bridge"&src=trend_click&f=live&vertical=trends
 
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It is possible that Russians have abandoned attempts to defend the Konka river bridge just North of Oleshky. If so this is pretty significant though apparently (as yet) Ukraine has not moved forwards so there may be more to this than is reported. I've put an X on the map-photo where the Russian SUV is departing from in the video.

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If it was a car bomb, it makes sense that the damage would be much less than from the large truck bomb used last year.

That's probably the least likely type of weapon. The Russians took to scanning every vehicle entering the bridge after the first attack. Russian news said it was drone boats right after it happened, but some video that claims to be of the attack happening shows anti-aircraft trying to engage something that hit the bridge. It may have been a couple of Storm Shadows.
 
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Putin doesn't give a damn about how his insane war affects the rest of the world. Pure evil.

Russia Pulls Out of the Black Sea Grain Deal

The Kremlin paused its participation in an agreement that allowed Ukraine to export its grain by sea despite a wartime blockade, a deal seen as essential to keeping global food prices stable.